Brothers, I am Mig.
Just now a lot of people asked me if SOL can still be held, whether to bottom fish, I quickly stared at the K-line chart for half an hour, and brushed through the news again.
The conclusion is a bit painful, but you must listen: SOL is likely to go down again today, don't be fooled by a rebound!
First, let's see what happened last night:
Do you know why the market suddenly softened? The direct reason lies in the news early this morning. The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce just released an analysis pointing out: the US employment data is not good, which could force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier next year.
But the key is the last sentence - the two 'dove' officials who voted against the rate hike last time will be replaced next year! The two replacements are analyzed to be 'potentially more hawkish'.
In plain language: the expectation that the Federal Reserve will immediately loosen policy to save the market has been doused with cold water. The funding sentiment has suddenly become cautious, which is why SOL quickly weakened after rising to 130—the overall environment's wind direction has quietly changed.
Looking at the technical aspect again, it is very clear:
130-132 is the iron top, the 1-hour chart shows a rise and fall, indicating that there is significant selling pressure here, making it difficult to go up even a little. The MACD white and yellow lines are close to the 0 axis, and the death cross trend is obvious—this is a typical sign of bears controlling the pace. The first support below is at 126, which is the dividing line for short-term bulls and bears. Once it breaks, it is highly likely to quickly slide to the 123-121 area.
Remember, in a downtrend, support is only meant for testing, not for blind trust.
Mig's personal opinion: currently, SOL is in a bearish state whether viewed from a short-term or long-term perspective, with initial support seen around 126, and further down at the 123-121 position. The current rebound pressure is at 130-132. If this pressure zone does not break, the outlook remains bearish for the day.
What should retail investors do? Remember these three points:
For those with positions: if heavily invested, take the opportunity to reduce a portion when it rebounds to around 129-130; consider further reduction if it breaks below 126.
For those wanting to catch the bottom: hold on! At least wait for a sign of stop-loss around 123 before testing the waters with a small position; don't go all in.
For those watching with no positions: wait for direction to become clear before taking action; the market is not lacking in opportunities, but rather in patience.
I know many people want to average down when prices fall, always thinking 'it's already very low,' but Mig tells you: in a downtrend, there may still be lower lows. Don't rush to use all your bullets; keep some funds ready, and when it truly stabilizes, Mig will remind you in the community.
If you often find it hard to see the direction, and every buy leads to a drop while every sell leads to a rise, follow Mig. Every day I will break down the market in plain language and share some operational logic that ordinary people can understand.
