The sharpest scythe in the crypto world is not market volatility, but the uncontrollable human heart.
Three years ago, I stepped into the crypto world with a yearning for financial freedom. I remember that night when I faced the K-line chart alone until dawn, constantly pondering a question: why do 90% of traders ultimately end up losing money?
Looking back now, the answer is already clear: in this market, what can defeat you is never a lack of skills, but the greed and fear deeply rooted in human nature.
A conversation with a seasoned trader made me realize something profound. He once said: "When the market panics to the point of being ignored, I quietly build my position; when everyone is celebrating and discussing getting rich from crypto, I gradually exit." This phrase became a turning point in my trading career.
My five 'counter-humanity' iron rules
1. Emotion thermometer rule: Buy when no one is paying attention, sell when voices are loud.
When almost no one is discussing cryptocurrencies on social media and even the most passionate KOLs start to change careers, it is often a good opportunity to gradually build positions. Conversely, when taxi drivers and market aunties are recommending tokens to you, the danger signals are already approaching.
Data shows that when discussions about popular cryptocurrencies on Twitter peak, 68% of coins will have their prices halved within 30 days. I applied this rule to build positions during the market downturn at the end of 2024 and reduced my holdings during the social media frenzy at the beginning of 2025, successfully capturing the oversold rebound of mainstream coins.
2. Sideways paradox: prolonged lows will certainly rise, prolonged highs will certainly fall.
In crypto trading, sideways consolidation is often a precursor to a trend change. When prices are long-term sideways at low levels, and volatility continues to shrink, it likely indicates an imminent bullish trend. Conversely, prolonged sideways at high levels, especially accompanied by shrinking trading volume, often indicates a decline.
The key is to identify the 'false breakout' trap. The manipulators often use the tactic of slightly breaking below the support level, forcing stop-loss positions to spill out, and then quickly pulling up. The response method is: do not set stop-losses at key positions or set wide stop-losses to avoid being washed out.
3. Extreme market reversal strategy: Sell on large bullish candles, buy on large bearish candles.
This is a seemingly simple yet extremely difficult rule to execute. When there is an extreme market condition with a daily increase of over 30%, especially when accompanied by FOMO emotions spreading, one should consider taking profits in batches. Conversely, when the market experiences panic selling with a daily decline of over 20%, one can build positions in batches.
The funding rate of perpetual contracts is an excellent sentiment indicator. When the funding rate is abnormally high (such as exceeding 0.1%), it indicates that market bullish sentiment is overheated, and the probability of a pullback increases. At this time, reducing positions is wiser than chasing gains.
4. Counter-humanity operation: Dare to buy on green, be brave to sell on red.
Human nature tends to seek a sense of security, preferring to enter the market when everyone is optimistic and exit when there is widespread pessimism. However, the minority who make money often go against the tide: buying when the market is generally green and selling when the market is generally red.
My experience is: when the price continues to close positive for multiple days, accompanied by increased volume, it should be a time to reduce positions rather than increase; when the price continues to close negative for multiple days, and the panic index reaches extreme levels, it should be a time to gradually build positions rather than cut losses. This rule requires strict discipline as support.
5. Period rhythm rule: Do not panic during early session sharp drops, do not be greedy during afternoon rises.
The crypto market trades 24/7, but different time periods have different characteristics. The Asian early session (6-10 AM) is often a period of low volatility, while the overlapping trading period of Europe and America (8-12 PM) has the highest volatility.
The sharp drop that often occurs in the early session usually presents an opportunity to 'fill the gap', as low liquidity can easily amplify volatility. In the afternoon session (especially the Americas afternoon), the rise is mostly institutional behavior, and one should consider following rather than exiting. I set a rule for myself: do not short during early session sharp drops, and do not chase highs during afternoon rises.
Current market position and opportunity judgment
Looking at the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency market is in a complex stage. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has warned that Bitcoin may pull back to $10,000 in 2026, reasoning that a global liquidity inflection point may emerge.
At the same time, analysts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat hold an optimistic outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could hit a high of $250,000. This huge divergence itself indicates that the market is at a critical turning point.
My opinion is: in the short term, the market may continue to oscillate and explore the bottom, but for three-year cycle investors, the current price level already has investment value. What truly needs to be monitored are on-chain data: net outflow from exchanges, accumulation of whale wallets, changes in long-term holders' positions, etc.
Practical advice for beginners
Invest with spare money and manage positions strictly. Do not invest more than 5% of total funds in a single project, and always keep emergency cash.
First simulate, then practice. Use a simulated account for more than three months before trading with real money.
Stay away from leveraged contracts. Data shows that users with 10x leverage have an average survival period of only 17 days.
Choose mainstream exchanges. Small exchanges carry the risk of running away.
Focus on mainstream coins, and avoid small coins. Most small coins are 'cutting leeks tools' that may go to zero once they drop.
Final advice
The deadliest illusion in the crypto world is 'this time is different'. History keeps repeating itself, and human nature remains unchanged. To survive in this market requires two qualities: decisiveness when opportunities arise and patience when uncertainty exists.
True experts are not those who catch every fluctuation, but the disciplined executors who know when to act and when to observe.
"In the crypto world, don't fear being slow, only fear being hasty." Steady and stable progress can take you further than blindly surfing. The current market is in a volatile period; for patient investors, the next opportunity is brewing.
Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in frenzy. When the next frenzy comes, I hope you are ready to exit calmly, rather than becoming a victim of the celebration.#巨鲸动向 $ETH
