Why is Bitcoin still falling? 🔥
As soon as the interest rate cut was announced,
Bitcoin saw a "see you Monday" moment: falling back to around 85k,
Ethereum lost the 3000 mark,
mining stocks collectively plunged over 10%. The start of this week is devastating.
The main culprits, the "three-piece set":
1. **Yen Interest Rate Hike: The Invisible Killer**
The Bank of Japan has held off for 30 years and finally raised interest rates (97% probability, a 30-year high). A historical rule: when Japan raises rates, BTC must drop 20-30%. The reason? Global players borrowed cheap yen to buy Bitcoin, and now that rates are up, they can only close positions with tears. In 2026, there may be more rate hikes + a sell-off of 550 billion ETFs, making risk assets shiver.
2. **Federal Reserve: Handing Out Candy and Running Away**
Rates have been cut, but how many more times can they be cut in 2026? No one dares to guarantee it. This week, once the non-farm payroll + CPI data is out, if employment is too poor or inflation rebounds, the Fed may "talk dovish but act hawkish", even secretly tapering. Global central bank policies are a mess, liquidity is not uniform, and it's more severe than overt tightening.
3. **On-Chain Mass Exodus**
Xinjiang's mining farms shut down over 400,000 machines, hash power plummeted by 17%, and miners who don’t sell coins will starve. Long-term holders are accelerating sales, with ETFs seeing a daily outflow of 350 million dollars, and market makers are busy moving assets. Holding BTC during US trading hours? Congratulations, you’re down 40%.
**Summary**:
Yen arbitrage collapse
Liquidity expectations failed
Miners' old money collectively fleeing = this drop is entirely justified.
Short-term: 85k is a key level.
Japanese dovishness + friendly US data may lead to a rebound; otherwise, 80k is beckoning.
Brothers, fasten your seatbelts, sip tea, and watch the drama — the crypto market has never lacked for dramatic reversals. 😏
