Bitcoin encountered cooling after rushing to a high of 88000 last night. The Federal Reserve directly released news stating that employment data does not currently support a rate cut in January, and officials further added that the dot plot for next year shows no expectation for rate cuts; the policy tone still needs to maintain a "restrictive" stance—essentially meaning that easing will not come quickly.
The situation in Japan is even tenser, with the probability of a rate hike in December already speculated to be at 98%. What does this mean? Liquidity is still tightening globally, with no signs of easing on the dollar side, and the yen is under appreciation pressure, resulting in a still tight funding environment. Simply relying on easing expectations to drive Bitcoin's rise is no longer feasible.
From a technical perspective, BTC's 4-hour chart has reached a clearly defined compression range. Prices are stuck below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, facing resistance at 93000 and 94000 above, while being supported at 84000 below. The BOLL channel is becoming narrower, trading volume is shrinking, and the RSI indicator is stuck in the neutral zone between 40-60, with no significant breakout momentum. In simple terms, it is in a consolidation phase, waiting to choose a direction—but the macroeconomic pressure is still quite evident.
The key is to see if Bitcoin can hold the defense line at 88000. If this position is lost, 84000 and 80000 may become the next focal points. Conversely, if it can break above 93000, there might be a chance to initiate a counterattack. However, from the current macroeconomic environment, the short-term outlook is likely still leaning towards weakness. $BTC #巨鲸动向
