葉問打饼YynOne11

More than a week, 4wU has reached 10wU, recently my trading has been hot, continuously making profits, always gaining, my bull has arrived, the air force has been living well during this time.
Still the same saying, remember to withdraw the principal after making a profit, use the earnings to keep running.
I have always insisted that bull and bear markets do not alternate; they coexist, just manifesting on different time scales. What we need to do is stay in a rhythm we are familiar with, striking hard at the drowning dogs🤑$ETH #加密市场回调

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Retail investors fear losing money the most, while institutional investors fear that you suddenly become enlightened.
Once you grasp these three routines of the market, you will not be easily taken advantage of.
Many traders always feel that there are "routines" behind the market—actually, the trends you see are often just what the main force wants to show you.

When I first entered the market, it was the same; I played the high buy and low sell game very well, and every time I bought, the market would turn against me, and as soon as I set a stop-loss, the price would soar. Later, I realized: it's not fate playing tricks, but rather that I didn't understand what was happening in the market.

Consolidation period: seemingly boring, but actually "grinding the market."
Many people find sideways trading incredibly dull—little do they know, this is the main force quietly clearing the field.
Just look for one characteristic: prices are stuck between a rock and a hard place, but trading volume is getting thinner.
Just like this, even when bad news hits, there's no fear; the price stays completely still—this is not a weak market; clearly, someone is quietly locking up shares.
Those big market movements often explode suddenly from the "most boring consolidation."

Breaking out and turning against you: false drops are real traps.
Before a true surge, the main force must do one thing: scare you away.
This is how routines are played: breaking through key levels → retail investors cutting losses → price rebounds.
Pay close attention to this scene: when the volume decreases and a breakout occurs, followed immediately by an increase in volume for a counterattack—this is not about collapsing; this is acting.

A piece of advice: if it really wants to drop, why bother acting so hard; those who are willing to act are all aiming to push prices up.
Stagnation: the signal for selling is the most glaring.

The most terrifying thing at a high position is never the lack of price increase, but rather that it has no momentum.
While you're still thinking "I'll wait a bit longer," others have already "quietly sold off."
Remember these signals: dense upper shadows, a surge in transaction volume but prices stuck, technical indicators showing fatigue, signs of the main force disappearing.
If you stay in such a position without exiting, you're just becoming someone else's exit buyer.

To put it bluntly, candlestick charts are not some kind of mysticism, but rather the "way the market speaks."
If you can't understand it, you can only be a bystander.
If you truly understand it, you can turn the page earlier than others.
Opportunities are never lacking; what's lacking are traders with insight.
Don't wait until prices soar before regretting: "Why did I miss this opportunity again?"
Those who are truly awake always like to quietly position themselves while the majority are still dozing off. $BTC #加密市场观察

The power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve is intensifying, and the impact of this turmoil on the cryptocurrency market cannot be underestimated.
Recent policy trends are worth noting. The differences between Trump and the Federal Reserve are becoming increasingly apparent, and market participants are generally feeling this tense atmosphere. Industry insiders point out that the existing policy tilt may face changes. At the same time, Waller is about to participate in the competition for the Fed chair, and the decision in January could be a key turning point.

From an economic data perspective, the situation is quite complex. The employment growth data for November is 64,000, which seems acceptable, but it conceals an awkward reality—October's data was revised down, reducing it by 105,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, and this fluctuation makes the claim of "stable growth" seem pale and powerless. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve's insistence on not lowering interest rates directly shattered the market's expectations for continued easing policies.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing capital outflows. However, every fluctuation hides opportunities. When the direction of policy is still uncertain, smart participants have already begun positioning themselves across different assets. Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute may regain attention, opportunities within the Ethereum ecosystem may be worth looking forward to, while those highly liquid altcoins may experience more dramatic fluctuations amid market uncertainty.

The key is to grasp the rhythm. Waiting for things to become completely clear usually means that opportunities have already been missed. Many experienced traders find opportunities during the policy vacuum and market chaos. During this phase of Fed policy adjustment, proactive positioning, effective risk management, and closely tracking policy developments are all necessary preparations. The next direction of the market depends on the decision in January and subsequent policy execution. Stay vigilant while maintaining rationality—this is the survival rule in the current environment.

For those eager to keep pace with Master Ye, time waits for no one $BTC #加密市场观察

Small capital trading, first discuss position size, then discuss technique.

No matter how accurate the entry point, if the position size is wrong, you will still exit.
Whether small capital can grow big depends not on how much you earn, but on whether you can survive.

There are only four core principles:
Preserve capital first, the principal is life.
Maintain a stable mindset, position size determines emotions.
Only engage in high certainty opportunities, do not trade every day.
The goal is compound interest, not a one-time turnaround.

Common position sizing methods:
Divide funds into 4–5 equal parts to avoid a single trade determining life and death.
Limit single trade maximum loss to 1%–2% of the principal.
Only increase positions during profitable trades, never average down against the trend.
Never go fully invested, always keep some cash in reserve.

In practice, remember three points:
Small capital should be concentrated, not dispersed.
If there are no opportunities, stay in cash; being in cash is also trading.
Regularly review trades, first look at position size, then assess correctness.

In summary:
Position size determines whether you can stay in the market.$BTC #加密市场观察

Bitcoin encountered cooling after rushing to a high of 88000 last night. The Federal Reserve directly released news stating that employment data does not currently support a rate cut in January, and officials further added that the dot plot for next year shows no expectation for rate cuts; the policy tone still needs to maintain a "restrictive" stance—essentially meaning that easing will not come quickly.

The situation in Japan is even tenser, with the probability of a rate hike in December already speculated to be at 98%. What does this mean? Liquidity is still tightening globally, with no signs of easing on the dollar side, and the yen is under appreciation pressure, resulting in a still tight funding environment. Simply relying on easing expectations to drive Bitcoin's rise is no longer feasible.

From a technical perspective, BTC's 4-hour chart has reached a clearly defined compression range. Prices are stuck below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, facing resistance at 93000 and 94000 above, while being supported at 84000 below. The BOLL channel is becoming narrower, trading volume is shrinking, and the RSI indicator is stuck in the neutral zone between 40-60, with no significant breakout momentum. In simple terms, it is in a consolidation phase, waiting to choose a direction—but the macroeconomic pressure is still quite evident.

The key is to see if Bitcoin can hold the defense line at 88000. If this position is lost, 84000 and 80000 may become the next focal points. Conversely, if it can break above 93000, there might be a chance to initiate a counterattack. However, from the current macroeconomic environment, the short-term outlook is likely still leaning towards weakness. $BTC #巨鲸动向

A daily money-losing tip: heavy positions + high leverage

Many newcomers to the cryptocurrency world first react not by learning risk control, but by wanting to understand one thing:

"With this little capital of mine, how can I turn it around without using some leverage?"

Thus, heavy positions + high leverage have become the quickest way for beginners to pay tuition.

Let’s state the conclusion first:
Heavy positions and high leverage do not just 'possibly incur losses',
but will definitely incur losses, it's just a matter of time.

Why?

Many people think:
Leverage = magnifying profits
But the reality is:
Leverage magnifies volatility.

What’s most common in the market is not a one-sided trend,
but rather:
fluctuations + back and forth sweeping liquidity.

This leads to the most heart-wrenching scenario:
You saw the direction correctly,
you didn't misjudge the trend,
but you—
didn't survive long enough for the market to truly move.

Stop-losses are triggered, forced liquidations occur,
it's not that your skills are lacking,
but rather that your position structure was wrong from the start.

Do you know what kind of users exchanges like the most?
Not the ones making money, but these four types:

1️⃣
Loves full positions

2️⃣
Loves high multiples

3️⃣
Loves frequent trading

4️⃣
Loves holding positions

Because in their eyes:
Stop-loss = liquidity
Liquidation = counterparty
Transaction fees = stable cash flow

You think you are taking a 'gamble',
but in reality, you are just providing fuel for the market.

The ones who can truly stay in the market long-term are often only these types of people:
• Light positions, to avoid an irreversible fatal injury
• Low leverage, or even no leverage, able to withstand volatility
• Prioritizing 'survival'
• Valuing certainty over odds

It's not that they don't want to make big money,
but they understand one thing:
Opportunities are always more abundant than capital.

If you are still:
Thinking of turning around with just one or two heavy positions
Thinking of solving life’s problems with 20x or 50x

Then you are not trading,
you are accelerating your exit.

No metaphysics, no courses to sell,
just talking about those—
things you will eventually understand only after paying tuition.
$BTC #BTC

Recently, the employment data for November released by the United States is quite interesting. On the surface, the addition of 64,000 jobs exceeded market expectations, but the unemployment rate instead jumped to 4.6%, the highest point in nearly four years.
Turning around, the data for October was also revised downward — the number of unemployed decreased by 105,000.
What is the main reason behind this? The Trump administration's "deferred resignation" plan led to over 150,000 federal employees being removed from the payroll.

This set of data is a mixed bag, leaving the market a bit confused. However, traders remain optimistic, continuing to bet on two interest rate cuts in 2026.
But there's a problem here — due to the previous government shutdown, the employment data for October and November actually has the potential for distortion, significantly reducing its reference value.
The people at the Federal Reserve should be well aware of this; they are more likely to focus on the non-farm payroll report for December, which will be released in early January 2026, as that will be the real basis for decision-making.

From the performance of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin did rebound somewhat after this data was released, stabilizing around $87,000.
However, many analysts warn that the market environment is actually quite fragile.
Without positive stimulus signals, Bitcoin could potentially fall below $80,000 in the short term.
So now it’s a matter of observation, whether there will be new favorable news to provide support or if it will continue to face pressure. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期

Double risks are stacking up, be careful in the next 48 hours.

This Friday is the Triple Witching Day. A day that occurs four times a year, where options and futures expire simultaneously, leading to a surge in trading volume and inevitable volatility. The market is like a stirred-up pool, calmness is non-existent, and emotions ignite easily.

But what really needs to be monitored is the Bank of Japan. The interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday, and that is the key. Recently, the market has already gone through a downturn, and it has somewhat digested the expectation of a rate hike from Japan. Not only is Bitcoin affected, but the Nikkei Index also plummeted overnight. Everyone is asking the same question: Will the yen carry trades be forced to close, triggering a chain reaction like in July and August 2024?

Japan's long-term interest rates have remained hovering around near-zero levels, making the yen the easiest currency to borrow globally. Funds borrow yen, convert it into dollars to buy the dip in US stocks, tech stocks, and even volatile assets like $BTC —this is the complete playbook for yen carry trades. It sounds perfect, but there is a fatal prerequisite: the yen must continue to depreciate.

What if the situation reverses? What happens if the yen starts to appreciate? The cost of borrowing suddenly rises, and those who found leverage appealing become hot potatoes. There is only one way out: quickly close positions and pay back the borrowed money. The problem is, what they sell won’t be yen, but rather those high-volatility, high-risk assets in their hands. The sell-off at this point is like a dam breaking—chain reactions are unstoppable.

So in the coming days, there are two forces to watch simultaneously: one is the technical volatility of Triple Witching Day—a pure trading impact; the other is the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's policy shift on global risk assets. In the short term, with such high uncertainty, market fluctuations are unavoidable.

The advice remains the same: manage your positions well and guard against risks. The volatility is indeed large, but those who rush in are often the ones who get eaten by the chess masters.
Stay close to Master Ye's rhythm if you’re not sure, only ferry those with fate $BTC #加密市场观察

YeWin Thoughts: The large pancake near 87800 is in a defensive position at 885
The daily chart has a bit of a W-bottom indication; the momentum seems insufficient, and the rhythm of the defensive side still has the upper hand—last night, the price surged to 88000, which was quite exciting, but then quickly reversed, and the strong trend could not continue. Instead, it has fallen into a situation of repeated fluctuations at high levels, with multiple upward tests failing, and now it has pulled back to around 87500, indicating that the buying pressure is clearly lacking. Looking at the underlying logic behind this fluctuation, it resembles "building momentum downward" rather than a rebound strengthening.

The technical signals are very clear:
In the 4-hour cycle, the price continues to run below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and the entire channel is gradually descending, with each rebound height being lower than the last;
The MACD indicator has formed a death cross below the zero axis, and there are no signs of energy momentum declining; instead, there is a possibility of continued release.
Right now, this round of rebound is essentially a technical repair fluctuation and not a signal of trend reversal. Simply put: the rhythm favors the defensive side, and the risk of bottom-fishing far exceeds the potential reward. $BTC #BTC走势分析

What more needs to be said about its value? Double the benefit, earning over two thousand a day, $BTC
#美国非农数据超预期

Master Ye's strength needs no further explanation, today the big pancake has been cut down by a thousand points

Even an old Kongjun leader has started to fidget, thinking of the gold content $BTC
#BTC走势分析

Bull and bear turning points often lie in a moment's thought.
Recently, many people have been asking: is this a real bear market or just a technical adjustment? Let's let the data speak.

From 126,000 down to 94,000, altcoins have been directly halved, with declines of 80 to 90 percent being common.

At the beginning of the month, the crazy performances of meme coins saw daily gains of five or ten times, which was almost identical to the end of the bull market in 2021. At that time, there were already warnings, and it seems now that there are indeed traces to follow—$19 billion in leverage was liquidated in this round of adjustments, and the annual gains have returned to zero.

From a technical perspective, the moving averages have already been breached, with 72,000 becoming a key support level. If it breaks down further, the risk of a bear market will increase significantly. The liquidity environment at the end of the year is also not very friendly, with tight funds, and the anticipated Christmas rally is basically unlikely.

But there is an interesting phenomenon here: while retail investors are cutting losses, institutions are quietly positioning themselves. The net inflow into the spot ETF of a leading platform is steadily at 253 million per day, indicating that large funds are actually accumulating at this stage.

Historically, the 18th month after Bitcoin halving has indeed been a common onset period for bear markets. In the short term, fluctuations in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 may continue for a while.

But the iron rule of the crypto market is: what is at its peak must decline, and what declines must rebound. Opportunities often hide in moments of despair; the key is mindset and preparation—keep your bullets ready and wait for the turning point. $BTC #巨鲸动向

Position management is what truly determines whether you can survive in the long term.

Many people’s understanding of position control only stays at "how much money I invested."
But that is just the surface.

The essence of position management is managing emotions.

Imagine this:
If you are fully invested and hit a large bearish candle, even approaching a limit down,
can you remain calm at that moment?
Most people are not analyzing; they are ignited by market emotions.

Once emotions surge, judgment becomes distorted.
What often follows is: random averaging up, random stop losses, making more and more mistakes.

But what if you only have a 10% position?
To be honest, it’s really not a big deal.
The position isn't high, the logic hasn't broken, you can still hold;
Even if you stop loss, the loss is completely within an acceptable range.
Emotions don’t collapse, and the mindset remains steady.

Emotions → Mindset → Response → Result
This is a complete transmission chain.

Those who truly know how to manage positions have a very slow rhythm.
I have a habit:
I only make important decisions after 2:30 PM.

The strength of the day has basically become clear by this time.
90% of mistakes in the market stem from one word—grabbing.
Grabbing in, grabbing out, grabbing a step ahead to prove oneself.

Slow down, and you will actually make fewer mistakes.
Slow is actually fast.

Once you truly understand and execute position management,
you will quickly feel the changes:
Your trading mindset will be noticeably steadier, and your operations will no longer distort.

Don’t think that only large funds need position management.
On the contrary, smaller funds need it even more.

Position management is essentially risk management,
and it is also mindset management.
There is no technique that can replace it.

Position is strategy,
technique is just tactics.

I have been in the market for ten years, and these are all my personal experiences,
it’s not just a lecture on principles.

Truly understanding position management,
you have really taken your first step into the world of trading. $BTC #加密市场观察

Everyone, the U.S. economic data bombardment is coming, and we must keep a close eye on the market tonight!
At 21:30 Beijing time, a wave of critical data will be released: non-farm employment, retail sales, and wage growth data. These three indicators directly affect the dollar's trend, and the strength or weakness of the dollar has a tangible impact on BTC's market—if the dollar is strong, Bitcoin is likely to be under pressure.

Currently, BTC is hovering around 86,000, and market sentiment is waiting for the results of this set of data. My judgment is that non-farm payrolls may exceed expectations. If the data shows strong performance, the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts will be lowered, putting pressure on risk assets to correct.

Next, at 22:45, the preliminary values for manufacturing and services PMIs will be released. The interesting point here is that if the data is good, risk assets may rebound in the short term, but the dollar will also strengthen, putting the crypto market in a dilemma. On the other hand, if the PMI shows robust performance, altcoins may find opportunities to rebound.

At 23:00, there will also be commercial inventory data, which has relatively less impact, but on such a data-intensive day, every data point is worth paying attention to.

To be honest, tonight is a showdown between technical and sentiment factors; the impact of data often outweighs candlesticks and support levels. To navigate this period steadily, the key is not to fight against the trend—if the direction is unclear, manage your positions well, and avoid this wave of volatility for now. Either take advantage of the opportunity when the data ignites, or just lie still and wait for the results; there is no middle ground. $BTC #非农就业数据

Recently, this market trend indeed shows signs of a major cycle starting. The interest rate cut has historically been verified repeatedly, and each time it provides an opportunity for the capital market to reprice.

After the announcement of the results by the Federal Reserve, the market trend is basically consistent with Master Ye's judgment. Personally, my overall returns this month have been quite impressive, multiplying several times is not an exaggeration. Although I can't be complacent about the win rate, at least I have maintained stability in logic and rhythm.

To be honest: how much money a person can make largely depends on who you communicate with and whose thoughts you follow. If you are always mingling with emotional skirts and shouting skirts, it is difficult to truly grasp the era's dividends.

Master Ye's performance is verifiable, and the information on public platforms is real.
If interested, you can join first to take a look, and then evaluate whether it's worth staying. $BTC #加密市场观察

In recent days, the coldness of the market has been apparent, and there are actually two core reasons behind it.

Double blow from the news side

First, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. This may not seem significant, but historical data will shock you — every time Japan raises interest rates, BTC tends to crash. Last March, it dropped by 23%, in July it fell by 26%, and in January this year, it even dropped by 31%. Although ETH does not react as directly as BTC, it cannot escape either, and a synchronized drop is basically the norm.

Second, the suspense of a change in the Federal Reserve's leadership. Waller has surpassed Harker and has become the most likely nominee for Trump. The market fears this kind of uncertainty — the style of the new chair is unknown, leading digital assets and stocks to tremble together. Furthermore, looking at the Fed's rate cut last week, they plan to cut only once in 2026, which creates a huge gap from the three cuts previously expected. The clouds of tightening liquidity have already begun to brew over the market.

The technical side has already raised alarms
$BTC From the hourly level, risk signals have increased.
DEMACDEMA has been continuously declining below the zero line, forming a standard bearish arrangement. The pressure for a rise is clearly present, with every rebound being forcefully suppressed. Key support levels have already been breached, and the second line of defense is also teetering. However, there is a detail worth noting — signs of a volume breakout are subtly emerging, suggesting that someone is trying to bottom out.

How to view the future market
In the short term, the possibility of continued pressure is greater. In the medium term, if external factors continue to ferment, the decline may further widen. However, the bottom always appears at some point, and the key is whether the volume breakout can be sustained. Currently, most people are observing, waiting for the market to provide clearer signals. #加密市场观察