In recent days, the coldness of the market has been apparent, and there are actually two core reasons behind it.
Double blow from the news side
First, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. This may not seem significant, but historical data will shock you — every time Japan raises interest rates, BTC tends to crash. Last March, it dropped by 23%, in July it fell by 26%, and in January this year, it even dropped by 31%. Although ETH does not react as directly as BTC, it cannot escape either, and a synchronized drop is basically the norm.
Second, the suspense of a change in the Federal Reserve's leadership. Waller has surpassed Harker and has become the most likely nominee for Trump. The market fears this kind of uncertainty — the style of the new chair is unknown, leading digital assets and stocks to tremble together. Furthermore, looking at the Fed's rate cut last week, they plan to cut only once in 2026, which creates a huge gap from the three cuts previously expected. The clouds of tightening liquidity have already begun to brew over the market.
The technical side has already raised alarms
$BTC From the hourly level, risk signals have increased.
DEMACDEMA has been continuously declining below the zero line, forming a standard bearish arrangement. The pressure for a rise is clearly present, with every rebound being forcefully suppressed. Key support levels have already been breached, and the second line of defense is also teetering. However, there is a detail worth noting — signs of a volume breakout are subtly emerging, suggesting that someone is trying to bottom out.
How to view the future market
In the short term, the possibility of continued pressure is greater. In the medium term, if external factors continue to ferment, the decline may further widen. However, the bottom always appears at some point, and the key is whether the volume breakout can be sustained. Currently, most people are observing, waiting for the market to provide clearer signals. #加密市场观察