Data invalidation and order invalidation are essentially driven by trends rather than news. Before trend confirmation, the optimal strategy is to not bet on direction, but to trade structure.

$ETH 2025-12-17, yesterday the non-farm payroll data was released and it was relatively positive but still flat. Yesterday there were hundreds of thousands of ETH buy orders between 3000-2900, which should have led to a price surge, but currently it hasn't started a rally. It feels more like the bulls have run out of steam and are just luring in more buyers to gather fuel. Considering the larger cycle, I have been worried that the decline trend of the 3-day moving average is about to be confirmed. If the 3-day moving average downtrend is confirmed, it is highly likely to break below 2620 and continue a deep correction trend, with the next target at 2250 and the ultimate goal around 1800-1600. If it can effectively stop the decline, it should be the bottom of the next upward cycle. To break this downtrend, it needs to violently surge above 3345 in the next two days and stabilize, but I personally feel that this is difficult to achieve, as the current position is not like the previous one. If the current position breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, it would have already broken the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking this downtrend, which is possible, but the likelihood is really low.

Summary: Today's strategy is relatively easy to execute; do not trade during the consolidation, just prepare to position after the consolidation is broken.

Bullish Strategy: Strong support below at 2850-2800 with 500 million buy orders. If it first moves south to around 2800 and consumes the liquidity, getting support and then quickly rebounds with volume to break through 3045-3100-3165-3345 and stabilize, it would officially break this downtrend and start a bullish trend. If the upward momentum is not strong, and it moves in a volatile upward manner, it may reach 3045-3145-3210, where it will encounter resistance and begin to decline again. You can place limit sell orders at these points for phased profit-taking, keeping a portion for a potential breakout. If it truly breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, then wait for a pullback to add to your position.

Bearish Strategy: Observe resistance levels at 3045-3145-3165-3210-3310-3345 for potential shorts. Strong resistance above at the 3000 level, but primarily formed by a single order, so it's likely that this order will be withdrawn, allowing for a breakout. Therefore, just monitor the order book at the 3000 level. If the order is suddenly withdrawn, it means a breakout above 3000 is likely. If this order does not get withdrawn and is instead eaten away little by little, and repeatedly fails to break through 3000, then 3020-3045 may be the top. You can wait for a pin bar to short, placing the stop loss at the top. If the stop loss is hit, then watch and try to short again at the top.

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