$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Non-farm payrolls disappoint vs unemployment rate hits high! The long and short battle in the crypto market is here, 一起聊聊呗
Having just experienced a 4000-point plunge in BTC, the non-farm report throws out contradictory signals: new jobs increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate surged to 4.44%, a new high since 2021. The crypto market is facing an ultimate choice amidst policy fog!
This delayed data release hides secrets: the seemingly strong non-farm jobs rely on part-time dominated sectors like education and healthcare, and the previous value has been significantly revised down, raising doubts about actual employment resilience. As the unemployment rate approaches the psychological barrier of 4.5%, the number of involuntary unemployed people surges, exposing potential weakness in the labor market, which precisely hits the Federal Reserve's pain point of "concern about the downside risks in employment."
Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become intense, with three dissenting votes in the December rate cut decision. Doves advocate for aggressive rate cuts, while hawks insist on holding steady, and expectations for a pause in rate cuts during Powell's term are rising. For the crypto market, this uncertainty gives rise to a "weak oscillation" pattern: strong non-farm figures suppress easing expectations, the dollar gets short-term support, but the rising unemployment rate leaves room for liquidity easing. Coupled with the implicit support from the Fed's halt in balance sheet reduction, BTC is engaging in a tug-of-war at the critical support level of 85000.
Technical risks remain: the BTC daily RSI is below 50; if it loses 85000, it will test 82000. If it can break through 88000 with the help of easing expectations, it may alleviate short-term downward pressure, but one must remain vigilant against the potential impact of rising rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan, as the exit of arbitrage funds may exacerbate volatility.
This data game is far from over; the direction of the Fed's policy in January will be a key variable. Do you think BTC can hold the 85000 support and rebound, or will it break down to test 82000? Will the Fed pause rate cuts in January?
Musk concept little dog 🐶【P.u.p.p.i.e.s】is pretty good, you might want to check it out!
#美国非农数据超预期
#BTC走势分析
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Non-farm payrolls disappoint vs unemployment rate hits high! The long and short battle in the crypto market is here, 一起聊聊呗
Having just experienced a 4000-point plunge in BTC, the non-farm report throws out contradictory signals: new jobs increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate surged to 4.44%, a new high since 2021. The crypto market is facing an ultimate choice amidst policy fog!
This delayed data release hides secrets: the seemingly strong non-farm jobs rely on part-time dominated sectors like education and healthcare, and the previous value has been significantly revised down, raising doubts about actual employment resilience. As the unemployment rate approaches the psychological barrier of 4.5%, the number of involuntary unemployed people surges, exposing potential weakness in the labor market, which precisely hits the Federal Reserve's pain point of "concern about the downside risks in employment."
Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become intense, with three dissenting votes in the December rate cut decision. Doves advocate for aggressive rate cuts, while hawks insist on holding steady, and expectations for a pause in rate cuts during Powell's term are rising. For the crypto market, this uncertainty gives rise to a "weak oscillation" pattern: strong non-farm figures suppress easing expectations, the dollar gets short-term support, but the rising unemployment rate leaves room for liquidity easing. Coupled with the implicit support from the Fed's halt in balance sheet reduction, BTC is engaging in a tug-of-war at the critical support level of 85000.
Technical risks remain: the BTC daily RSI is below 50; if it loses 85000, it will test 82000. If it can break through 88000 with the help of easing expectations, it may alleviate short-term downward pressure, but one must remain vigilant against the potential impact of rising rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan, as the exit of arbitrage funds may exacerbate volatility.
This data game is far from over; the direction of the Fed's policy in January will be a key variable. Do you think BTC can hold the 85000 support and rebound, or will it break down to test 82000? Will the Fed pause rate cuts in January?
Musk concept little dog 🐶【P.u.p.p.i.e.s】is pretty good, you might want to check it out!
#美国非农数据超预期
#BTC走势分析
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