⚡️ Market snapshot (as of 2025-12-17)
· Current price: approximately $86,700 (about ¥608,727).
· Recent trend: The price has significantly retraced from the historical high of $126,000 in October. After experiencing a sell-off earlier this week, it is currently hovering above $86,000.
· Annual performance: down approximately 7% year-to-date, possibly recording the fourth annual decline in history.
📉 Current market core dynamics
The recent weakness in the market is primarily due to the combined effects of several factors:
1. Key support is facing a test
The market is closely watching a key technical level: the 100-week simple moving average. This moving average is viewed by many traders as a long-term 'safety net,' and the price of Bitcoin is currently hovering around it. However, an important warning sign is that the stock price of the largest publicly held company of Bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR), has fallen below this moving average in November and has continued to decline since. Historical data shows that MSTR's movements often lead Bitcoin, adding uncertainty to the current key support level.
2. Capital outflow and insufficient market confidence
· ETF capital outflow: Since the peak in October, investors have net withdrawn over $5.2 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
· Trading activity shrinks: Market trading volume continues to be sluggish, with a significant month-on-month decline, showing a 'lack of faith' among market participants and a reduction in speculative activities. The 'market depth' indicator, which measures the market's capacity to handle large transactions, has also dropped by about 30% from its peak earlier this year.
3. Decoupling from the macro environment
Unlike before, this round of Bitcoin decline occurs against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. stock market (especially tech stocks). This decoupling from the performance of risk assets indicates that the downward momentum may stem more from structural issues within the cryptocurrency market, such as the liquidation of excessive leverage from earlier.
📊 Analyst viewpoints overview
Current market analysts have obvious differences in their judgments regarding Bitcoin's subsequent trends.
Bearish/cautious view
· Bloomberg intelligence strategist Mike McGlone: believes that many positive factors (such as ETFs, mainstream recognition) have already been absorbed by the market, and the short-term risk-return structure has changed, potentially facing significant regression pressure on prices.
· XS.com senior market analyst Samer Hasn: points out that the market environment remains 'fragile'; without positive catalysts, Bitcoin may fall below $80,000 in the short term.
· 10X Research: points out that trading volume is very sluggish, highlighting a lack of faith in the market.
Range-bound view
· CEO of digital asset trading company STS Digital: believes this round of adjustment may be more of a 'temporal correction' rather than a sharp price decline, with Bitcoin potentially consolidating long-term between $70,000 and $100,000.
· XS.com senior market analyst Linh Tran: also believes Bitcoin is more likely to continue oscillating in the wide range of $80,000 to $100,000 rather than starting a strong bull market.
Long-term bullish logic
· 21Shares crypto investment expert David Hernandez: acknowledges short-term selling pressure, but in the long run, potential economic tensions (such as inflation) may reinforce Bitcoin's logic as a scarce value storage asset, prompting 'smart money' accumulation.
💎 Summary
In simple terms, Bitcoin is currently at a critical crossroads: the technical front is testing key long-term support, the capital front shows outflows, and market sentiment is generally cautious. This is different from the annual declines in 2014 (exchange hacks), 2018 (ICO bubble burst), and 2022 (industry giants collapsing), marking the first deep correction without a significant industry crisis.
Therefore, whether the future is about maintaining support and initiating a rebound, or breaking key levels and entering deeper adjustments, the support strength in the $70,000-$80,000 range will be crucial. #ETH走势分析
