加密货币专家小马哥

香港交易所为HashKey Exchange鸣钟，这远超一次普通上市，而是传统金融向加密行业颁发“官方身份证”的标志性事件。这意味着，合规的加密基础设施正式进入全球主流资本视野。

面对这一根本性转变，散户的玩法必须彻底升级：

1. 合规是生死线：选择持牌平台将成为资产安全的底线。
2. 聚焦正统资产：资金将优先流向像 $BTC（比特币）、 $ETH（以太坊） 这类受监管机构认可的资产，以及RWA（真实世界资产） 等合规赛道。
3. 心态从投机转向投资：关注有实际业务、现金流和合规能力的项目。

当前，比特币价格正于86，000美元附近震荡筑底。短期波动不改长期趋势，当“正规军”携牌照与资金入场，旧时代的草莽玩法正在失效。

历史性转折已至，你是选择换船，还是留在原地？#BinanceABCs

【干货帖】一文看懂：每月牵动全球市场的“非农数据”是什么？

美国“非农数据”，全称“非农就业人口”，是每月第一个周五晚上（北京时间）全球投资者必看的经济头条。

1. 它是什么？

· 官方定义：美国非农业部门新增就业人数的月度变化。
· 核心数据：不只是新增就业数，还包括失业率、平均时薪等，是衡量美国经济冷热的“就业晴雨表”。

2. 为何如此重要？🤔

· 经济核心指标：直接反映美国企业活动和消费信心。
· 美联储的政策指南：强劲的就业和薪资增长，可能促使美联储加息以抑制通胀；反之，则可能为降息打开大门。
· 全球市场风向标：数据公布后，美元、美股、黄金、美债市场经常出现剧烈波动。

3. 什么时候发布？

· 时间：通常为每月第一个周五。
· 北京时间：冬令时21:30，夏令时20:30。

一句话总结：想看懂美联储政策、判断美元和美股大势，每月这份报告是绕不开的“必修课”。

你平时会关注这个数据吗？对市场有何影响？欢迎评论区聊聊！👇#非农数据

The non-farm data will be released "unconventionally" tonight, drawing attention to signs of cooling in the labor market.

The U.S. non-farm employment report for November will be published at 21:30 Beijing time on December 16 (Tuesday). This report has been delayed due to a historic government shutdown and contains several unusual aspects.

Key highlights and expectations of the report

1. "Two-in-one" data package: Due to the interruption in data collection in October, this report will simultaneously include non-farm employment figures for both October and November. However, the unemployment rate data for October will be missing.
2. General market expectations: Economists predict that non-farm employment in November will increase by about 40,000 to 50,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%.
3. Key industries to watch: Job growth is expected to be concentrated in healthcare, leisure, and hospitality; while industries related to goods production may continue to be weak.

Special background and interpretation challenges

This data is affected by two significant special events, and interpretation needs to be particularly cautious:

· Impact of the government shutdown: The 43-day shutdown may have distorted data collection. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also noted that data should be examined with a "certain degree of skepticism."
· Federal employee exodus: More than 150,000 federal employees left in October due to the government’s "paid leave program," which is expected to significantly lower the government employment figures for that month. Some analyses predict that non-farm employment in October may have decreased.

Impact on the market

As one of the key bases for Federal Reserve policy-making, this "unconventional" non-farm report will affect market expectations for future interest rate paths. If the data is significantly weaker than expected, it may strengthen market bets on Fed rate cuts; conversely, it could suppress expectations for easing.

In summary, tonight's non-farm report will provide important clues for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, but its special nature and complexity require investors to conduct more cautious analysis. #非农数据

📉 Bitcoin plummets! The market is in turmoil

As of December 16, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, dropping about 30% from its historical peak. Market panic has spread, triggering 180,000 liquidations with losses exceeding $600 million.📊

Liquidity depletion and loss of confidence are the main reasons, and the key support level of $84,000 is under test. #BinanceABCs

Tonight's non-farm payrolls are released, revealing the fate of the cryptocurrency market.

📉 Weak data: Expectations of interest rate cuts ignite, with a liquidity frenzy imminent. Historically, BTC has seen a single-day increase of 8%.

📈 Strong data: Dreams of interest rate cuts shattered, a strong dollar suppresses the market. Beware of a repeat of the overnight liquidation affecting 400,000 people.

The direction of the year-end market will be set tonight. Are you betting long or short?

#BTC #NonFarm #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

Good morning☀️ Iron fans check-in and like 👍 make a fortune 🍗🌹!
A new day begins, entering the second half of December 2025, and the countdown to 2025 is also starting.
First, 🫓 has reached a historical high, and the long-awaited altcoin season has yet to appear. Instead, people have experienced a cluster of altcoin launches, frequent unlocks, and delistings at any time, with many coins being eliminated even if they don't go to zero. Those who study moving averages, candlestick patterns, and cycle theories are often left confused and losing money, while those who follow news and uncertainties and engage in swing trading may see some gains. This week will see numerous news and uncertainties emerge, especially the interest rate hike for the much-hyped small day on the 19th, so the tight stone field may experience significant fluctuations. 🫓 once fell below the key support level of 86000, and it's also possible to test the 80000 integer level again. yi has fallen below the hard-won 3000 points, but from the data, whales and institutions are still continuously accumulating 🫓 and yi. At this sensitive moment, it's best to stay away from HeYue. #BinanceABCs

The number of interest rate cuts by Meilianchu in 2026, tomorrow's non-farm payroll report will be decisive.
The debate regarding Meilianchu's monetary policy path for 2026 is entering a heated stage, and the market is holding its breath for the release of a series of key economic data to assess the central bank's upcoming actions.
As the 'data vacuum period' caused by the closure of the Meiguo government ends, the market's focus is tightly locked on the monthly non-farm employment data set to be released this Tuesday (December 16). After Meilianchu recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, traders are currently betting that Meilianchu will cut rates twice next year, aiming to support the job market and economic growth prospects, even as inflation remains stubbornly high. #BinanceABCs

The trend reappears, and the performance is stronger than 🫓, but on-chain data monitoring shows that whales are quietly accumulating.
The strategy has purchased 10,645 🫓, with a total price of approximately 980.3 million USD, at a unit price of about 92,098 USD. From 2025 to now, the yield of 🫓 is 24.9%. As of December 14, 2025, the strategy holds 671,268 🫓, with a total price of approximately 50.33 billion USD, at a unit price of about 74,972 USD.
BitMine increased its holdings by about 102,200 ETH last week, with a total holding exceeding 3.96 million ETH.
In the past three weeks, BitMine increased its holdings by 96,798 ETH, 138,452 ETH, and 102,259 ETH respectively. Since December 1, a total of 337,509 ETH has been added over half a month, bringing the total holdings to 3,967,210 ETH, which is two-thirds of the target of "acquiring 5% of the total Ethereum supply."
In fact, these processes are precisely what happens when you hesitate to cut losses. #BinanceABCs #比特币减半完成

The giant whale institution once again successfully crashed the market using news and uncertainties.
In fact, the market currently underestimates the probability of an interest rate cut in January. Even if there is no rate cut in January, it has been widely speculated. This week's employment and CPI data will be key variables.
Master Bao's statement after the December interest rate meeting was interpreted by the market as a signal of the "🦅" faction. However, UBS's latest report indicates that the market may be prone to over-interpretation, and the upcoming employment and CPI data will provide key judgements for the January rate cut.
On Tuesday, non-farm reports for both October and November will be released simultaneously. This rare arrangement will provide the FOMC with a more comprehensive assessment of the labor market. UBS expects that due to the federal government's delayed retirement plan (DRP), non-farm employment in October will decrease by 20,000, while November will increase by 45,000. More importantly, the unemployment rate in November may rise to 4.5%, continuing the trend of labor market slowdown.
The November CPI data will be released on Thursday. However, due to the government shutdown leading to data collection interruptions, the CPI report may have significant noise.
Has Master Bao ruled out a rate cut in January, or is the market overreacting?
The market's interpretation of Master Bao's "🦅 faction" at the December press conference may be overly cautious.
UBS analysis suggests that Master Bao's statement actually implies continued room for rate cuts. Master Bao clearly pointed out that when inflation and employment risks tend to balance, the federal funds rate should be close to 3.0% rather than 3.5%, indicating that even if inflation is slightly above target, there is still room for policy rate reductions. #巨鲸动向

The current core focus of the Bitcoin community is on four major dimensions: the transmission effects of Federal Reserve policies on the crypto market, the struggle for key technical levels, market sentiment games, and the long-term value disputes triggered by regulatory dynamics.
1. Technical Bull-Bear Struggle: Key Levels as Short-term Indicators
Core Support and Resistance Contest
Bullish Defense Line: $83,000 (key stop-loss point), $86,000 (institutional accumulation zone), $89,300 (M head and shoulder neckline) are commonly seen as short-term lifelines. A fall below may trigger a deep correction to below $80,000.
Bearish Fortress: $91,800 - $92,700 (strong daily resistance), $94,000 (historical accumulation zone) has become a breakthrough difficulty, with multiple attempts to push higher validating the effectiveness of resistance.
Volatility Strategy: Grid trading in the range of $68,000 - $104,000 is recommended to avoid directional risks, especially suitable for spot holders.
Pattern and Cycle Signals
The 4-hour level bottom divergence repair is incomplete, but the daily triangle convergence is nearing its end, with late December to early January predicted as a turning window.
Ethereum first broke through a similar converging structure, with some investors viewing it as a precursor to Bitcoin's breakout. #加密市场反弹

📉 Market Update | A 24-Hour Bloodbath: Complete Collapse, $270 Million Liquidated

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a "massacre." The market continually declined, with key support levels being broken like thin pancakes, leading to another wave of brutal liquidations in the futures market.

💥 Core Liquidation Data Overview:

· Total Liquidation Amount: Approximately $270 million liquidated across the entire network
· Number of Liquidated Accounts: As high as 115,700 people have become victims of this market trend
· Long vs. Short Comparison: Bulls suffered heavy losses, with long positions liquidated at $230 million and short positions liquidated at $35.237 million.
· Largest Single Liquidation: Occurred in the Hyperliquid-ETH trading pair, where a position worth $4.8542 million was forcefully liquidated.

The market is shrouded in strong bearish sentiment, with panic selling and successive liquidations forming a vicious cycle.

💡 Terminology Overview:

· Long Liquidation: Refers to contracts betting on price increases that are forcefully liquidated, usually occurring during a sharp decline.
· Short Liquidation: Refers to contracts betting on price decreases that are forcefully liquidated, usually occurring during a sharp increase.

🚨 Market Warning
Current market volatility is extreme, and leverage is like "playing with fire." On-chain data has clearly shown that a large number of high-leverage long positions have been wiped out. Until clear new trend signals emerge, investors should exercise extreme caution, manage their positions, and avoid becoming the next liquidation statistic.

Market views suggest that this decline is the result of macro pressures, weakening market structure, and tight liquidity. Some analysts warn that if key support levels continue to be breached, the downward trend may deepen further. #加密市场反弹

Good morning. The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline this morning, and here is the early-morning information for Bitcoin on December 15.

📉 Early Morning Core Data Overview

· Current Price: Approximately $87,967.8, down about 2.48% in the last 24 hours.
· 24-hour Performance: At one point during the day, it fell nearly 4%, leading the mainstream cryptocurrencies.
· Key Data: Approximately $270 million in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours, with more than 115,700 people liquidated, most of whom were long positions.

💡 Market Outlook and Influencing Factors

This decline is mainly influenced by the following factors:

· Macroeconomic Pressure: Standard Chartered has significantly downgraded its price forecast for Bitcoin, believing that large purchases may have "come to an end."
· Market Sentiment and Technicals: Analysts point out that Bitcoin may face a directional breakout after a period of narrow consolidation, but there is a risk of further decline to $50,000. At the same time, there are views that the market is searching for direction, with liquidity being thin.
· Volatility Warning: The market's implied volatility is at a low level, usually indicating that significant price movements may be imminent.

📊 Technical Analysis and Trading Tips

· Key Levels: The current price has fallen below the short-term support of $88,000. If it continues to weaken, attention should be paid to key support levels such as $85,692 (recent low).
· Trading Strategy: During periods of increased market volatility and unclear direction, it is advisable to control positions and avoid high-leverage operations.

Overall, the early market is weak due to macro expectations and short-term selling pressure. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at key support levels.

If you need more detailed technical analysis regarding specific support and resistance levels, I can further clarify for you. #加密市场反弹

📊 Recent Core Market Dynamics and Logic

The following summarizes several aspects of the current market that are attracting the most attention:

1. Key Prices and Current Status

· Current Overview: Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating in a narrow range around $90,000, which is viewed as a 'key support level', with the market direction unclear.
· Recent Resistance Level: The short-term key resistance level is around $92,500.
· Important Support Levels: If there is a decline, attention should be paid to the support at $85,692 (recent low) and $79,000 (annual low).

2. Core Logic Affecting the Market

· Macroeconomic Pressures: Market sentiment is affected by the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies and macroeconomic fragility, with an increased correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets.
· Liquidity Tightness: Market liquidity has decreased in the fourth quarter, coupled with high leverage, making it easy to trigger significant volatility and cascading liquidations.
· Technical Structure Bearish: Some analyses indicate that Bitcoin's price has fallen below several key moving averages, and the market structure may have entered a bearish phase.

3. Bullish and Bearish Perspectives and Future Predictions

· Bearish Perspective: It is believed that the current rebound is weak and is a correction in a larger bear market, predicting a deep adjustment possibly down to $50,000.
· Bullish/Neutral Perspective: It is believed that below $90,000 presents a long-term opportunity, but the market needs to wait for new catalysts, and may remain neutrally fluctuating before the end of the year. #加密市场反弹

Crypto Market Afternoon Briefing | December 14, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) Afternoon Market Update

· Current Price: $90,165.48 USD
· Daily Performance: Slight decline -0.24%, daily volatility has narrowed, with a high of $90,484.24 and a low of $90,165.48.
· Market Status: Consolidating with reduced volume near the critical psychological level of $90,000 USD, investors remain cautious ahead of significant macro events.

Market Focus: Upcoming BOJ Rate Hike
Next week (December 18-19), the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting. The latest news indicates:

· Extremely High Probability of Rate Hike: Over 90% of economists expect a 25 basis point increase, raising the rate from 0.5% to 0.75%.
· Core Impact Pathway: This move will end Japan's long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially triggering a wave of “yen carry trade” unwinding (i.e., investors repaying low-cost yen loans and selling high-risk assets purchased with those funds), thereby tightening dollar liquidity in global markets.
· Implications for the Crypto Market: Risk assets like Bitcoin are highly sensitive to global liquidity. The expectation of tightening liquidity is the main reason currently suppressing upward price movements and leading to a cautious market sentiment.

Institutional Perspective: Market Structure is Changing
ARK Invest CEO “Cathie Wood” recently pointed out that Bitcoin's market characteristics have changed due to the large-scale entry of institutional funds:

· Reduced Volatility: Early deep corrections of 70%-90% may have become a thing of the past, as institutional investors create a “buffer” for prices.
· Attribute Migration: The correlation between Bitcoin and risk assets like U.S. stocks has increased, and its “digital gold” safe-haven attribute has been partially replaced by the characteristics of “risk-on assets.”

Summary
The current market is in an “event-driven” quiet period. Bitcoin's price hovers around $90,000 USD, with thin trading, awaiting the outcome of next week's BOJ meeting to signal the direction of liquidity. The macro shadow of tightening liquidity combined with the reduced volatility brought by institutionalization constitutes the core logic of the current market.

The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and authoritative media reports as of the afternoon of December 14. The market carries risks, and this information does not constitute investment advice. #加密市场反弹

According to recent market dynamics, this morning (December 14) the cryptocurrency market is primarily influenced by the following macro events and technical aspects:

1. Core macro event: The Bank of Japan's policy meeting is imminent
Next week (December 18-19) the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting. According to reports from several authoritative media outlets, the market widely expects it to decide on an interest rate hike. If this comes true, it means that the last major negative interest rate economy in the world is turning, which may attract global capital back to Japan, tightening liquidity in the global market. This typically constitutes macro bearishness for risk assets priced in USD, such as Bitcoin.

2. Current market technical situation
As of the close on December 13, Bitcoin is showing a pattern of narrow fluctuations with reduced volume at the key level of $90,000, as both long and short sides are becoming cautious before significant events.

· Upper resistance: Around $94,000.
· Lower support: The area of $88,000 to $90,000.

Market volatility has significantly decreased, indicating that it is waiting for new driving factors to break the balance.

3. Summary and points of interest for the future market
This week's core market logic: Traders are preparing for the potential "global liquidity tightening." The Bank of Japan's decision will become a key catalyst affecting the short-term direction.
Points to watch:

1. Bank of Japan meeting results: Whether to raise interest rates and subsequent policy guidance.
2. Bitcoin price breakthrough at key levels: Can it hold the $90,000 support?
3. Changes in market liquidity: Be vigilant about the risk asset correction caused by the rising risk aversion sentiment.

If you are interested in how the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike might specifically impact the cryptocurrency market, I can provide you with a more in-depth analysis. #加密市场反弹

Bitcoin December 13 Market Analysis: Consolidation near $90,000 with Low Volume

The following are the core market performance and key data for Bitcoin on December 13:

📊 Core Market Overview

· Closing Price: $90,103.34
· Daily Fluctuation: Opened at $90,281.64, highest $90,614.31, lowest $89,988.05, with overall amplitude being very small.
· Market Status: Throughout the day, the market oscillated without direction in a narrow range above the key psychological level of $90,000. Market volatility has significantly decreased, with the 30-day implied volatility dropping to an annualized 45.1%, a recent low.

🔍 Key Points Analysis

1. Low Volume Narrow Range Consolidation: The daily range on the 13th was only about $626, marking a recent low, and trading volume has shrunk compared to previous days (like the 12th). This indicates a quiet market, with both bulls and bears tending to be cautious ahead of major macro events (such as next week's Bank of Japan meeting), lacking a clear direction.
2. Key Battle at $90,000: The price hovered closely around $90,000 throughout the day, testing multiple times but not effectively breaking below. This confirms that this position is the core technical support and balance point for bulls and bears in recent times. Analysts point out that if the daily close effectively breaks below this position, it may open up further space to drop towards $88,000.
3. Macroeconomic Background and Market Sentiment: This round of consolidation occurs against the backdrop of a significant pullback from Bitcoin's November highs. Although some analysts believe that large capital inflows indicate the market's foundation remains strong, short-term sentiment is clearly suppressed. Major financial institutions generally recommend limiting cryptocurrency allocations to 1%-5% of investment portfolios, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude of mainstream capital at the current price level.

💎 Summary
On December 13, Bitcoin's market displayed characteristics of a typical "event pre-silence period": prices consolidated with low volume at key technical levels, volatility contracted, and the market awaited new macro drivers (mainly the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision) to break the balance.

In the short term, the gains and losses around $90,000 are the first signal for assessing market strength, while significant resistance above is around $94,000. Traders should be cautious of a potential directional breakout following the extremely low volatility.

If you are interested in the details of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting that may impact next week's market direction, I can provide more in-depth analysis. #加密市场反弹