Current market situation:
After two weeks of rising before the interest rate cut, there has been a decline for a while afterward, and this has been the pattern in previous instances. So far, there are no exceptions this time.
Looking back, the pullback after the interest rate cut, where "good news is fully priced in," usually lasts about 10 days. Currently, there are about 3–5 days left. Moreover, the pullback often erases a large portion of the gains made before the interest rate cut.
This round of BTC started from around 81,000, and it’s possible to retest the range of 81,000–83,000 in the coming week.
Short-term variables include the CPI inflation data on Thursday, which may determine the rise and fall rhythm in the next few days.
If a second bottom is reached, it may actually be easier to see a decent rebound, placing rebound orders near the previous lows has a good chance of success.
Looking ahead, January without an interest rate cut is the next clear milestone:
It’s likely to decline in the two weeks before the meeting and then rebound after the meeting when the negative news is fully priced in, which will provide a relatively comfortable operational window.
By the way, about ETH:
The 4-hour structure is bearish, with lower highs and lows, and three segments of declines getting increasingly severe. It is currently still consolidating, and the bearish pullback is on the rise.
In the short term, focus on the range of 2876–3000 USD, first consolidating, and don’t rush to conclusions.
