🚨 Unemployment in the USA is at a 4-year high

📊 The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% with expectations of 4.5%

🕰 This is the highest level since September 2021

🔴 The labor market is noticeably weakening

🔴 Hiring rates are slowing down

🔴 Economic growth is losing momentum

🔥 Inflation remains around 3%, which is significantly higher than the Fed's target of 2%

⚠️ The worst-case scenario for the Fed is stagflation

🐢 The economy is slowing down

🔥 Inflation remains high

📈 Not lowering the rate — the risk of recession sharply increases

📉 Lowering the rate — inflation may accelerate again

🧱 The Fed is caught in a trap

🎯 Unemployment is becoming a key factor for the markets

🎯 Base forecast

⏸ The rate will remain unchanged at the next meeting

📉 The first step down only if unemployment goes to 4.8–5%

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