✔️ As expected, the price went to remove the liquidity shelf on the 4H, which happened in the second half of the day. 📉 The shelf was not completely removed, but only partially, after which we received a sharp reaction and a drop back to previous levels.
🎯 I expect a continuation of the price decrease to the zone 83 822 ⚠️ In this area, it is already worth being cautious. 💼 Possible partial position fixation.
🇺🇸 A bipartisan bill against crypto fraud has been introduced in the USA
📝 Senators Elissa Slotkin and Jerry Moran proposed the SAFE Crypto Act 🏛 The document envisages the creation of a federal interagency group to combat crypto scams
🤝 The initiative will bring together the U.S. Department of the Treasury, law enforcement agencies, financial regulators, and private experts 🎯 The main goal is to detect, track, and halt fraudulent schemes in the crypto sphere
🛠 The law will also strengthen tools for local authorities 📚 A separate focus is on raising public awareness
📑 The first report is planned to be submitted within the year 🔁 In the future, reports will be published annually
⚠️ Congress emphasizes that with the growing popularity of crypto assets, user protection is becoming critically important 📊 Against this backdrop, Chainalysis estimates the volume of illegal crypto transactions in 2024 to be $51.3 billion
⏳ Exactly 15 years ago in 2010, the first Bitcoin faucet was launched 🪙 Every visitor received 5 BTC just for completing the captcha 😮 Back then, it seemed like an experiment and a joke 💸 Today, those 5 BTC are a fortune 📜 It is from such small things that the history of Bitcoin began
📉 💰 #BTC 💰 #ETH 💰 #XRP 💰 #SOL 💰 #LINK #ETF 🔻 Yesterday, the total net outflow from spot BTC-ETFs amounted to approximately $277.2 million, indicating continued pressure from institutions. 🔻 The total net outflow from spot ETH-ETFs reached approximately $224.2 million, reinforcing the negative sentiment around the market. ⚠️ Spot XRP-ETFs showed a weak net inflow of $8.5 million, which does not change the overall picture. ⚠️ Spot SOL-ETFs recorded a minimal net inflow of about $3.6 million, with no signs of sustained demand. ⚠️ Spot LINK-ETFs received around $8.5 million in inflow, which seems insignificant in light of widespread outflows from key assets. 🌪 The overall ETF dynamics confirm the caution of players and the absence of an aggressive buyer.
📉 #BTC The market situation remains difficult and tense ⚠️ The market is stuck in the zone 87 000$ and is unsuccessfully trying to break higher to return to the ascending channel 🔻 The structure looks unstable, and in the global projection, the risk of correction in the bearish flag formation remains 📉 Locally, the selling pressure also dominates with the potential for further decline 💥 The biggest hit is on altcoins outside the top-10, which remain critically weak without signs of demand
💰 #BTC 📉 Senior strategist at Bloomberg Mike McGlone has voiced an extremely bearish scenario ⚠️ According to his assessment, Bitcoin may crash to the $10,000 zone in the current cycle 🧨 This forecast is based on the overheating of previous market phases and tough macro conditions 🧊 Against the backdrop of weak demand, such statements only amplify fear among market participants 😐 Investors should consider this risk as an extreme but possible scenario
🟠 There is currently local demand for ETH at the level of $2,800 ⚠️ In case of further decline, this level may serve as temporary support 📉 At the same time, the market structure remains weak and there are no guarantees of price retention 🧊 In the event of a breakout at $2,800, selling pressure may intensify sharply 😏 Traders should be extremely cautious with longs in this area
📉 Analysts have recorded a historic level of bearish sentiment in the current market cycle ⚠️ Investor pessimism has reached extreme levels and continues to exert pressure on prices 💣 The market ignores positive triggers and any rebounds are used for selling 🧊 Liquidity is tightening, buyer activity is minimal ⏳ The current phase resembles prolonged exhaustion more than a bottom
📉 A sharp spike in BTC sales is being recorded from long-term holders — one of the largest in the last 5 years ⚠️ Such peaks usually form near market highs, not at the bottom 📦 LTH supplies began to decrease after historical highs, which increases supply pressure 💸 The price of BTC significantly exceeds the realized price of LTH, indicating a mass profit-taking rather than a belief in further growth 🔻 Such behavior from 'strong hands' often serves as a warning of a market phase change ⏳ In the short- and medium-term, this creates an increased risk of correction
⚠️ BlackRock transferred 47,463 ETH to Coinbase Prime for an amount of about $140 million 📉 Moving funds to the exchange increases the risk of potential selling 🔻 Similar transactions by institutions often precede price pressure 🧊 The use of Coinbase Prime indicates readiness for operations, rather than cold storage ⏳ For the market, this is another caution signal amid weak demand
🏛️ Сенат США фактично заморозив регулювання крипторинку щонайменше до 2026 року ⏳ Банківський комітет не планує жодних слухань у 2025 році, а це означає ще рік правової невизначеності для всієї індустрії ⚠️ Відсутність чітких правил залишає криптокомпанії під постійним регуляторним тиском і ризиком раптових рішень 📉 Затягування переговорів свідчить про глибокі розбіжності в Конгресі та слабку політичну волю діяти зараз 🏦 Пауза у регулюванні грає на користь банківського сектору, але стримує інституційні вливання в крипто 🔻 Ринок і надалі житиме в режимі очікування, що негативно впливає на довіру та довгострокові інвестиції
📉 The market is once again entering a phase of active decline 💥 BTC is currently trading near 85 000$ ETH has fallen below $3,000 🌊 Altcoins are cascading down with 654 million$ 95% of positions liquidated in a day — longs
🔻 The strongest declines are ASTER −12% TIA −10% HYPE −10% 🟢 There are almost no greens MYX +3.7% XDC +4%
⚠️ Key reasons for the pressure 🏦 Wintermute sold about 1.2 billion$ in BTC and another ~800 million$ in ETH 🇯🇵 On December 19, Japan raises its rate historically such events have often coincided with deep BTC drops
The market remains fragile liquidity is thin any negative news quickly scales movements ⏳ In the short term, volatility will persist pauses are almost non-existent
🇨🇳 Actions of the Chinese authorities have intensified pressure on mining and impacted Bitcoin's hash rate 🗓 Since mid-December, the network's hash rate has dropped by approximately 5.6% due to the shutdown of facilities in the Xinjiang-Uygur region 🗣️ Mass inspections and control have forced operators to shut down equipment in emergency mode 📊 In several regions, between 400,000 to 500,000 mining installations have been simultaneously stopped 🔽 Cumulative losses could reach up to 100 EH/s of computational power 🧩 Despite the ban in 2021, China remained a significant source of hash rate until the end of 2025, peaking above 14% of the network 🧠 Currently, about 2.5% of all Bitcoin nodes are operating in the country 📉 The decline in hash rate coincided with the correction of BTC below 86 000$ , which intensified the overall negative sentiment ⚠️ Analysts emphasize that the impact of miners on price is limited and the market is controlled by derivatives and spot flows 🌍 At the same time, the reduction of mining in China may temporarily ease conditions for pools in other countries
📉 #BTC asset is realizing the worst of possible scenarios 🔻 An active breakout of the ascending channel to the short side is currently happening, and if it solidifies, it will open up the potential for movement into the $70,000 zone ⚠️ Buybacks are practically absent and the news backdrop remains negative 😨 The fear and greed index is in the zone of extreme values ⏸ I recommend taking a break from trading for 1–2 days and observing the market from the sidelines
⚠️ Event of the day — unemployment in the USA 📊 Today, the unemployment rate and NFP data for non-farm employment will be published 🏦 These indicators directly influence the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates 📉 The market is pricing in increased volatility immediately after the release of statistics ⏱ The strongest movements are possible in the first minutes after publication