There is hope to return to $120,000, but the difficulty in the short term (before the end of 2025) is high, the probability is higher in the medium term (first half of 2026), core factors depend on macro liquidity, ETF funds, and technological breakthroughs. As of December 17th at 7 PM, BTC is about $87,000, still having **38%+** space to $120,000.

Core judgments and timelines

- Short term (now - end of 2025): There's a high probability of oscillation in the range of $85,000 to $95,000, breaking $100,000 is difficult, let alone $120,000; key support at $85,000, a drop could test $80,000.

- Medium term (first half of 2026): If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected, ETF funds return, and on-chain demand rebounds, returning to $120,000 is a high probability event, optimistic expectations in Q2-Q3.

- Long-term (after the second half of 2026): Halve the cycle + deeper institutional allocation, expected to challenge previous highs again, but volatility remains severe.

Trigger conditions and risk points

- Upward trigger: ① Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and dovish signals released; ② Net inflow of BTC ETF rebounds, whales increase holdings; ③ Technically stabilizing above 95,000 and breaking through 100,000, triggering short covering; ④ Rising macro risks boost demand for safe havens.

- Downside risks: ① Interest rate cuts not meeting expectations or restarting rate hikes; ② Continuous outflow of ETF funds, large sell-offs by whales; ③ Increased regulatory pressure; ④ Breaking below the support of 85,000, worsening sentiment triggering a chain of sell-offs.

- Short-term: Mainly wait and see, lightly try to go long around 85,000 #加密市场观察 , strict stop-loss at 80,000; reduce positions around 95,000 to avoid chasing highs.

- Mid-term: Patiently wait for resonance between macro and liquidity, staggered positioning, aiming for gradual profit-taking around 120,000.

Do you need me to provide specific staggered buy/profit-taking prices and stop-loss lines based on your position cost and risk preference? #美联储降息 $BTC