According to reports, on December 16 local time, the U.S. announced comprehensive control measures on tankers related to Venezuela, claiming that a large fleet has been deployed in the relevant waters and that further expansion of the deployment scale cannot be ruled out.
The Venezuelan side strongly responded to this, pointing out that the U.S. move aims to interfere with the country's natural resources, reiterating its complete sovereignty over its resources, and stating that it will condemn this action, which does not conform to international law, through United Nations channels. The changing geopolitical situation has rapidly affected the international crude oil market. On December 17, WTI crude oil futures prices once rose by 1.7%, rebounding from recent lows.
Control measures continue to escalate.
Recently, the U.S. has deployed multiple vessels in the Caribbean waters near Venezuela under the pretext of combating transnational illegal trade. Since early September, the U.S. has conducted maritime operations in the Caribbean and East Pacific related waters, claiming to have sunk more than 20 vessels suspected of illegal trade, resulting in over 80 deaths. The U.S. stated that all actions were conducted in international waters.
Previously, the U.S. had accused Venezuelan entities of being associated with transnational illegal trade. On December 10, the U.S. detained an oil tanker in waters near Venezuela, which was carrying crude oil exported in cooperation with Iran, with the original destination being the Asian market.
U.S. relevant departments stated that this oil tanker involves oil transportation between Venezuela and Iran, and also accused its transportation network of allegedly providing support to related organizations. After the news broke, Venezuelan President Maduro immediately responded, accusing the U.S. actions of being maritime illegal acts and claiming that this is a blatant violation of international norms.
The next day, the U.S. Treasury updated the relevant restriction list to include three relatives of Maduro's wife and six oil tankers. Former U.S. State Department official David Goldwyn analyzed that the inclusion of oil tankers in the restriction list by the U.S. is a prelude to taking further detention measures, essentially a form of deterrent pressure.
On December 16, the U.S. further escalated control measures, announcing comprehensive maritime control and designating the Venezuelan government as a specific focus. On that day, Venezuelan Vice President and Minister of Oil Rodriguez issued a government announcement, clearly stating that the U.S.'s maritime control measures violate international law and severely impact free trade and freedom of navigation. She criticized the U.S.'s related remarks as having obvious interventionist and hegemonic colors, believing that the U.S. is attempting to implement a blockade through military deployments and plunder Venezuela's national wealth.
Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America program at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, stated that this is a significant escalation of control measures. He specifically mentioned that among the six oil tankers listed in the restriction list, some were still docked at Venezuelan ports at the time, and once they leave the port, they may be intercepted by the U.S.
International oil prices have experienced short-term fluctuations.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, but its oil production has significantly declined over the past decade. Since the U.S. imposed comprehensive restrictions on Venezuela's national oil company PDVSA in 2019, the country's daily oil exports have plummeted from 1.5 million barrels to less than 600,000 barrels. Although the domestic inflation rate has fallen from a million percent to 300%, the average monthly income of ordinary citizens is still less than 50 dollars, and the cost of buying a bag of flour nearly accounts for half a month's salary. The U.S.'s detention of the oil tanker effectively cuts off one of Venezuela's few foreign exchange income channels, causing a severe impact on its economic operation.
Previously, influenced by global oversupply expectations and positive prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, on December 16, crude oil futures prices closed at the lowest level since February 2021. However, with changes in the geopolitical situation, on December 17, WTI crude oil futures prices briefly rose by 1.7%, rebounding from recent lows.
Market research firm Next Barrel analyst Matthias Toni pointed out that in terms of price impact, market reactions may be more reflected in spot market premiums rather than the futures market. Buyers along the Gulf Coast, who originally procured Venezuelan crude oil, may turn to alternative resources such as Canadian Castilla blend crude oil. A comprehensive assessment estimates that the supply reduction facing Chevron's related business is expected to be controlled within 200,000 barrels per day.
Currently, it is still unclear how the U.S. will specifically implement maritime control measures, and whether it will continue the previous model of using the Coast Guard for interception remains to be seen. However, it can be confirmed that the U.S. has recently increased its naval presence in the relevant waters.
Several market analysts stated that the overall supply of the global oil market is still in a state of abundance. However, they also warned that if the U.S. maritime control measures become long-term, it may push international crude oil prices into an upward range.