浩瀚鎏金---云皓xo
公众号：浩瀚鎏金云皓xo 在币圈的涨跌浪潮里，有人追涨杀跌慌不择路，有人患得患失乱了阵脚，而真正的明白人，都懂“不慌不忙。
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Current Core Structure of the Gold Market: High-Level Stalemate under Data Games
$BTC
The recently released November non-farm payroll data, which superficially appears to be “better than expected,” conceals a bearish core that the market finds difficult to perceive — the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000, but the unemployment rate simultaneously rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high in over four years, while wage growth hit a near 20-month low, and previous employment data was also significantly revised downward. This contradictory signal means the data did not provide real bullish support for gold, but rather intensified the divergence between bulls and bears.
The Federal Reserve last week implemented its third rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%. According to past patterns, a rate cut would directly reduce the holding cost of gold and simultaneously suppress the dollar, becoming the core driving force for gold prices to rise. However, after this round of rate cuts, gold prices have remained in a high volatility range between $4300 and $4354, without showing a strong upward trend, and the characteristics of high-level control are particularly evident.
The recently released November non-farm payroll data, which superficially appears to be “better than expected,” conceals a bearish core that the market finds difficult to perceive — the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000, but the unemployment rate simultaneously rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high in over four years, while wage growth hit a near 20-month low, and previous employment data was also significantly revised downward. This contradictory signal means the data did not provide real bullish support for gold, but rather intensified the divergence between bulls and bears.
The Federal Reserve last week implemented its third rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%. According to past patterns, a rate cut would directly reduce the holding cost of gold and simultaneously suppress the dollar, becoming the core driving force for gold prices to rise. However, after this round of rate cuts, gold prices have remained in a high volatility range between $4300 and $4354, without showing a strong upward trend, and the characteristics of high-level control are particularly evident.
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Satellite Industry: Multiple breakthroughs in policy, launch, and application, the industry accelerates into an explosive period
The satellite industry chain has clear division of labor, with upstream and downstream working together to promote industrial upgrades: upstream focuses on the core links of satellite manufacturing, with payload manufacturing and satellite platform construction as the focus, and currently listed companies mainly layout in the field of component manufacturing; midstream covers two major sectors of satellite launch and ground receiving equipment, with listed companies focusing on supporting electronic components such as chips; downstream focuses on operation and application, providing diversified services such as data and positioning for various customers through satellite systems, which is the key terminal for releasing industrial value.
Recently, the satellite industry has become a core track catalyzed by both policy and market, from the improvement of the regulatory system to breakthroughs in launch capabilities, and then to the implementation of terminal applications, the entire industry chain has ushered in milestone progress, entering an accelerated sprint stage of development.
Recently, the satellite industry has become a core track catalyzed by both policy and market, from the improvement of the regulatory system to breakthroughs in launch capabilities, and then to the implementation of terminal applications, the entire industry chain has ushered in milestone progress, entering an accelerated sprint stage of development.
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CPI is coming
The American public is being swept up by high inflation and rising living costs, with dissatisfaction continuing to spread. This Thursday (December 18), the highly anticipated U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is about to be announced. This report, which carries key insights into price trends, will provide important basis for Wall Street's market judgment and the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
Earlier this week, the combined employment report for October-November, delayed due to the government shutdown, was officially released. The data reflects the weakening trend of the U.S. economy - non-farm employment decreased by 105,000 in October, and although 64,000 jobs were added in November, it was difficult to change the downward trend, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 4.6%. Wall Street generally believes that even if the unemployment rate is expected to slightly decrease in December, there are still no obvious signs of recovery in the job market in the short term, and the U.S. economy seems unlikely to enter 2026 with strong momentum. Meanwhile, American businesses' hopes for a resolution to trade disputes have remained unfulfilled, and the sword of Damocles in the form of tariffs continues to loom: U.S. tariff levels have risen to decades-high levels by 2025. According to Goldman Sachs data, 55% of the tariff costs are borne by American consumers, 22% by American businesses, directly pushing up personal consumption costs by 0.44%, and causing significant profit shrinkage for companies like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, casting a shadow over the global economy.
Earlier this week, the combined employment report for October-November, delayed due to the government shutdown, was officially released. The data reflects the weakening trend of the U.S. economy - non-farm employment decreased by 105,000 in October, and although 64,000 jobs were added in November, it was difficult to change the downward trend, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 4.6%. Wall Street generally believes that even if the unemployment rate is expected to slightly decrease in December, there are still no obvious signs of recovery in the job market in the short term, and the U.S. economy seems unlikely to enter 2026 with strong momentum. Meanwhile, American businesses' hopes for a resolution to trade disputes have remained unfulfilled, and the sword of Damocles in the form of tariffs continues to loom: U.S. tariff levels have risen to decades-high levels by 2025. According to Goldman Sachs data, 55% of the tariff costs are borne by American consumers, 22% by American businesses, directly pushing up personal consumption costs by 0.44%, and causing significant profit shrinkage for companies like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, casting a shadow over the global economy.
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12/18 Morning AU Thoughts Vast Golden Text
As of this morning, London gold reached a high of $4342.05 per ounce, just a step away from the resistance at $4350, currently slightly retreating to around $4325, overall still in a high-range fluctuation pattern.
There have been three attempts to reach the $4350 resistance line without effective breakthroughs, and the lack of upward momentum remains unchanged. Until there is a solid breakthrough above $4350, gold will maintain a fluctuating trend. To initiate a new upward trend, it must stabilize above $4350 and open up new space.
The U.S. November CPI data to be announced tonight is a core variable affecting gold trends. Due to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown, this data will be measured using a bi-monthly or year-on-year basis. The market expects the November core CPI year-on-year to be 2.88%.
1. If the data meets or is below expectations, it will further consolidate the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and gold is expected to break through the $4350 resistance, opening up a new upward trend.
2. If the data exceeds expectations, the market's interest rate cut expectations will be weakened, and gold will come under pressure to retreat, with key support in the 4280-4300 area.
The market does not have a fixed trend; trading needs to follow the trend and not be stubborn in a single direction.
Morning trading strategy: Short gold at 4342, protection at 4355, target 4290-4280;
If the market breaks through 4355, you can follow the trend and enter long positions, aiming for the $4380 line.
Disclaimer: The above is purely a personal opinion share and does not constitute trading advice. Investment carries risks; gains and losses are at one's own risk. $BTC #巨鲸动向
As of this morning, London gold reached a high of $4342.05 per ounce, just a step away from the resistance at $4350, currently slightly retreating to around $4325, overall still in a high-range fluctuation pattern.
There have been three attempts to reach the $4350 resistance line without effective breakthroughs, and the lack of upward momentum remains unchanged. Until there is a solid breakthrough above $4350, gold will maintain a fluctuating trend. To initiate a new upward trend, it must stabilize above $4350 and open up new space.
The U.S. November CPI data to be announced tonight is a core variable affecting gold trends. Due to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown, this data will be measured using a bi-monthly or year-on-year basis. The market expects the November core CPI year-on-year to be 2.88%.
1. If the data meets or is below expectations, it will further consolidate the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and gold is expected to break through the $4350 resistance, opening up a new upward trend.
2. If the data exceeds expectations, the market's interest rate cut expectations will be weakened, and gold will come under pressure to retreat, with key support in the 4280-4300 area.
The market does not have a fixed trend; trading needs to follow the trend and not be stubborn in a single direction.
Morning trading strategy: Short gold at 4342, protection at 4355, target 4290-4280;
If the market breaks through 4355, you can follow the trend and enter long positions, aiming for the $4380 line.
Disclaimer: The above is purely a personal opinion share and does not constitute trading advice. Investment carries risks; gains and losses are at one's own risk. $BTC #巨鲸动向
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From a macro perspective
From the performance of the current global asset market, this round of rise in precious metals is essentially the result of the resonance between the dollar liquidity triggered by the U.S. employment data and market expectations, rather than a single factor's incidental push.$SOL
The latest employment data disclosed by the United States is the core trigger of this market cycle: when the growth of non-farm employment falls short of market expectations, while the unemployment rate rises beyond predictions, the market immediately judges that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing cycle will continue — this directly hits the asset attractiveness of the dollar. As precious metals priced in dollars, they naturally welcome a valuation repair window. Moreover, the weakening of the dollar creates a positive feedback loop: the decline of the dollar index lowers the cost threshold for global investors in precious metals like gold and silver priced in non-dollar currencies, further amplifying the willingness to enter the buying market.
The latest employment data disclosed by the United States is the core trigger of this market cycle: when the growth of non-farm employment falls short of market expectations, while the unemployment rate rises beyond predictions, the market immediately judges that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing cycle will continue — this directly hits the asset attractiveness of the dollar. As precious metals priced in dollars, they naturally welcome a valuation repair window. Moreover, the weakening of the dollar creates a positive feedback loop: the decline of the dollar index lowers the cost threshold for global investors in precious metals like gold and silver priced in non-dollar currencies, further amplifying the willingness to enter the buying market.
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U.S. Maritime Control Related to Venezuela Escalates, International Crude Oil Market Responds with Fluctuations
According to reports, on December 16 local time, the U.S. announced comprehensive control measures on tankers related to Venezuela, claiming that a large fleet has been deployed in the relevant waters and that further expansion of the deployment scale cannot be ruled out.
The Venezuelan side strongly responded to this, pointing out that the U.S. move aims to interfere with the country's natural resources, reiterating its complete sovereignty over its resources, and stating that it will condemn this action, which does not conform to international law, through United Nations channels. The changing geopolitical situation has rapidly affected the international crude oil market. On December 17, WTI crude oil futures prices once rose by 1.7%, rebounding from recent lows.
The Venezuelan side strongly responded to this, pointing out that the U.S. move aims to interfere with the country's natural resources, reiterating its complete sovereignty over its resources, and stating that it will condemn this action, which does not conform to international law, through United Nations channels. The changing geopolitical situation has rapidly affected the international crude oil market. On December 17, WTI crude oil futures prices once rose by 1.7%, rebounding from recent lows.
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December 17th Gold and Crude Oil Market Evening Overview
Gold
The daily trend of gold now, to put it simply, is just oscillating back and forth at a high level, stuck in the range of 4270 to 4350 without moving, slowly repairing the previous market fluctuations while watching the 4-hour trend. The short-cycle moving averages are all tangled together with no significant movement. The level of 4340 is a barrier; if it tries to push upward, it is highly likely to be blocked. It is estimated that it will still oscillate back and forth within this small range.
Looking at the hourly chart, there are now signs of "something not right". The short-cycle moving averages are starting to turn down, and the K-line is being pressed down by the moving averages. It is highly likely that it will adjust downward again; let's first see how strong this adjustment will be.
I think it’s better not to chase after gold now, as the pressure above is visible. It would be more stable to wait until it adjusts to a relatively low position before taking action, otherwise, it is easy to get stuck in the oscillation and be trapped.
Crude Oil
The rebound of crude oil these days is about to hit the previous resistance level where it couldn't rise anymore. Looking at the daily chart, the K-line is still being pressed by the short-cycle moving averages, and overall it is still weak, not really a reversal.
The hourly chart shows it is slowly moving up, but this momentum is clearly not strong, more like a relief bounce after a significant drop, not a real beginning of a big rise.
I feel that the current rebound of crude oil is just a "feint"; don’t just chase it because it’s rising. It would be more reliable to consider shorting when it approaches the resistance level.
AU: 4340-4345 nearby short, stop loss 4352, target 4300-4295
OIL: 56.5-56.7 nearby short, stop loss 57.4, target 55.5-54.5$BTC #美国非农数据超预期
Gold
The daily trend of gold now, to put it simply, is just oscillating back and forth at a high level, stuck in the range of 4270 to 4350 without moving, slowly repairing the previous market fluctuations while watching the 4-hour trend. The short-cycle moving averages are all tangled together with no significant movement. The level of 4340 is a barrier; if it tries to push upward, it is highly likely to be blocked. It is estimated that it will still oscillate back and forth within this small range.
Looking at the hourly chart, there are now signs of "something not right". The short-cycle moving averages are starting to turn down, and the K-line is being pressed down by the moving averages. It is highly likely that it will adjust downward again; let's first see how strong this adjustment will be.
I think it’s better not to chase after gold now, as the pressure above is visible. It would be more stable to wait until it adjusts to a relatively low position before taking action, otherwise, it is easy to get stuck in the oscillation and be trapped.
Crude Oil
The rebound of crude oil these days is about to hit the previous resistance level where it couldn't rise anymore. Looking at the daily chart, the K-line is still being pressed by the short-cycle moving averages, and overall it is still weak, not really a reversal.
The hourly chart shows it is slowly moving up, but this momentum is clearly not strong, more like a relief bounce after a significant drop, not a real beginning of a big rise.
I feel that the current rebound of crude oil is just a "feint"; don’t just chase it because it’s rising. It would be more reliable to consider shorting when it approaches the resistance level.
AU: 4340-4345 nearby short, stop loss 4352, target 4300-4295
OIL: 56.5-56.7 nearby short, stop loss 57.4, target 55.5-54.5$BTC #美国非农数据超预期
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Review
Combining the latest market news and data as of December 17, 2025
Against the backdrop of cautious sentiment in the market, on December 17, the major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen opened mixed, with the Shanghai market slightly lower and the Shenzhen market slightly higher. After the market opened, selling pressure was limited, and the index maintained a slight fluctuation in positive territory. Shortly after the afternoon session began, the stock index experienced a rapid surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3881 points, and the ChiNext Index soaring over 3%. However, the willingness of external funds to follow suit was not very strong, and there was a pullback towards the end of the market.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3870.28 points, up 45.47 points, an increase of 1.19%, with a turnover of 766.8 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13224.51 points, up 309.84 points, an increase of 2.40%, with a turnover of 1044.3 billion; the ChiNext Index reported 3171.91 points, up 100.15 points, an increase of 3.26%, with a turnover of 418.16 billion. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.8 trillion. The major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen showed a significant strengthening in the afternoon session today, what logic is behind this surge? How will the market trend run in the future?
Against the backdrop of cautious sentiment in the market, on December 17, the major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen opened mixed, with the Shanghai market slightly lower and the Shenzhen market slightly higher. After the market opened, selling pressure was limited, and the index maintained a slight fluctuation in positive territory. Shortly after the afternoon session began, the stock index experienced a rapid surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3881 points, and the ChiNext Index soaring over 3%. However, the willingness of external funds to follow suit was not very strong, and there was a pullback towards the end of the market.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3870.28 points, up 45.47 points, an increase of 1.19%, with a turnover of 766.8 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13224.51 points, up 309.84 points, an increase of 2.40%, with a turnover of 1044.3 billion; the ChiNext Index reported 3171.91 points, up 100.15 points, an increase of 3.26%, with a turnover of 418.16 billion. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.8 trillion. The major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen showed a significant strengthening in the afternoon session today, what logic is behind this surge? How will the market trend run in the future?
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Key financial data and events to focus on today: December 17, 2025, Wednesday
① 15:00 UK November CPI MoM
② 15:00 UK November Retail Price Index MoM
③ 17:00 Germany December IFO Business Climate Index
④ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI YoY Final
⑤ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI MoM Final
⑥ 19:00 UK December CBI Industrial Order Balance
⑦ 21:15 Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks
⑧ 22:05 Federal Reserve Williams delivers a speech at the meeting
⑨ 23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending December 12
⑩ 23:30 US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending December 12
⑪ 23:30 US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending December 12 $BTC #美国非农数据超预期
① 15:00 UK November CPI MoM
② 15:00 UK November Retail Price Index MoM
③ 17:00 Germany December IFO Business Climate Index
④ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI YoY Final
⑤ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI MoM Final
⑥ 19:00 UK December CBI Industrial Order Balance
⑦ 21:15 Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks
⑧ 22:05 Federal Reserve Williams delivers a speech at the meeting
⑨ 23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending December 12
⑩ 23:30 US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending December 12
⑪ 23:30 US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending December 12 $BTC #美国非农数据超预期
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$BTC 1217 Vast Gold: Au Pre-High Pressure, Short-term Speculation
On one side is a solid foundation and continuously strengthening vitality of the Chinese real economy, and on the other side is the skyrocketing global precious metals bull market. The current market is showing a different polarization trend. The once soaring housing prices created an illusion for many, with prices often reaching tens of thousands per square meter, making us feel like we had entered the ranks of developed countries. However, the impact of the pandemic shattered this illusion, and in some areas, housing prices have retreated, allowing everyone to see that the consumption upgrade at that time was merely a peak value in a phase. The subsequent market return has led more people to lean towards rational consumption.
In the global market, the precious metals bull market is becoming a new barometer. In 2025, gold, silver, and platinum prices are all expected to rise significantly, with platinum's increase already doubling within the year and silver's increase exceeding 110%. This round of precious metals market not only reflects risk aversion but also represents global capital's bet on "de-dollarization" and the transition to new energy, which will accelerate the decline of dollar hegemony and promote the reshaping of the global power structure. The competition among major powers is becoming increasingly intense; this is the current norm and also a trend for the future. This process is full of ups and downs, and the East rising and West declining that we hope for may be underway. However, the geopolitical risks brought about by this process, as well as its impact on the global real economy, will be ongoing and will also affect every ordinary person. The market changes we have already felt may continue in the future.
In line with the current market situation, short positions should be laid out near 4340, with a stop-loss at 4350 and a target of the 4280-4250 support area. If it breaks down below, it can be watched down to 4222.
This strategy relies on key resistance levels for short-term speculation, aiming to capture the technical correction after the surge. #BinanceABCs
On one side is a solid foundation and continuously strengthening vitality of the Chinese real economy, and on the other side is the skyrocketing global precious metals bull market. The current market is showing a different polarization trend. The once soaring housing prices created an illusion for many, with prices often reaching tens of thousands per square meter, making us feel like we had entered the ranks of developed countries. However, the impact of the pandemic shattered this illusion, and in some areas, housing prices have retreated, allowing everyone to see that the consumption upgrade at that time was merely a peak value in a phase. The subsequent market return has led more people to lean towards rational consumption.
In the global market, the precious metals bull market is becoming a new barometer. In 2025, gold, silver, and platinum prices are all expected to rise significantly, with platinum's increase already doubling within the year and silver's increase exceeding 110%. This round of precious metals market not only reflects risk aversion but also represents global capital's bet on "de-dollarization" and the transition to new energy, which will accelerate the decline of dollar hegemony and promote the reshaping of the global power structure. The competition among major powers is becoming increasingly intense; this is the current norm and also a trend for the future. This process is full of ups and downs, and the East rising and West declining that we hope for may be underway. However, the geopolitical risks brought about by this process, as well as its impact on the global real economy, will be ongoing and will also affect every ordinary person. The market changes we have already felt may continue in the future.
In line with the current market situation, short positions should be laid out near 4340, with a stop-loss at 4350 and a target of the 4280-4250 support area. If it breaks down below, it can be watched down to 4222.
This strategy relies on key resistance levels for short-term speculation, aiming to capture the technical correction after the surge. #BinanceABCs
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On December 16, spot gold briefly surged before plummeting below $4300. On the 15th, it had fluctuated upwards to $4350 before quickly retreating, closing at around $4307. The domestic gold jewelry price increase trend has come to an end, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price dropping to 1349 yuan per gram (a drop of 4 yuan), while brands like Chow Tai Fook have remained stable.
In 2025, international gold prices entered a rare bull market, breaking $3000 in March and $4000 in October, with an annual return rate exceeding 60%. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4900 by the end of 2026, while institutions like Bank of America expect it to rise to $5000. The core driving force is the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks (the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months), record inflows into gold ETFs, and a surge in demand for safe-haven and allocation.
The deeper logic behind the rise in gold prices includes: the impact of high U.S. debt and policy uncertainty on dollar credit, the highlighting of gold's strategic value under the trend of "de-dollarization"; geopolitical risks like conflicts in the Middle East pushing up safe-haven demand; and the AI bubble risk making gold a hedging tool.
In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $4200 to $4500, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace being a key variable; if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation is controlled, or rate cuts are delayed, combined with profit-taking leading to technical selling, gold prices may see a significant correction. $SOL #巨鲸动向
In 2025, international gold prices entered a rare bull market, breaking $3000 in March and $4000 in October, with an annual return rate exceeding 60%. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4900 by the end of 2026, while institutions like Bank of America expect it to rise to $5000. The core driving force is the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks (the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months), record inflows into gold ETFs, and a surge in demand for safe-haven and allocation.
The deeper logic behind the rise in gold prices includes: the impact of high U.S. debt and policy uncertainty on dollar credit, the highlighting of gold's strategic value under the trend of "de-dollarization"; geopolitical risks like conflicts in the Middle East pushing up safe-haven demand; and the AI bubble risk making gold a hedging tool.
In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $4200 to $4500, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace being a key variable; if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation is controlled, or rate cuts are delayed, combined with profit-taking leading to technical selling, gold prices may see a significant correction. $SOL #巨鲸动向
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The gold market in the last three days has been exactly the same: during the day or the European trading session, it gradually declines, and as soon as the U.S. market opens, it immediately pulls up, following the same pattern.
Today, when observing the market, pay attention to these points:
1: If today is no longer a decline during the day and rise in the U.S. market, then be cautious, as the market may change direction.
2: The short-term market during the day is gradually moving upwards; if the price slightly pulls back, you can follow and buy more.
3: The 4-hour market is also oscillating upwards, so short-term operations should follow this trend, and today's gold price is still at a high level, with London gold stable around 4320 USD.
Yesterday's thought of shorting crude oil in the short term was correct!
Crude oil is stuck at the pressure level of the top and bottom conversion, continuously declining, just as expected.
Today, crude oil is still falling, and domestic crude oil futures have already dropped to around 423 yuan, and the subsequent trend is still leaning towards weakness $BTC #美国非农数据超预期
Today, when observing the market, pay attention to these points:
1: If today is no longer a decline during the day and rise in the U.S. market, then be cautious, as the market may change direction.
2: The short-term market during the day is gradually moving upwards; if the price slightly pulls back, you can follow and buy more.
3: The 4-hour market is also oscillating upwards, so short-term operations should follow this trend, and today's gold price is still at a high level, with London gold stable around 4320 USD.
Yesterday's thought of shorting crude oil in the short term was correct!
Crude oil is stuck at the pressure level of the top and bottom conversion, continuously declining, just as expected.
Today, crude oil is still falling, and domestic crude oil futures have already dropped to around 423 yuan, and the subsequent trend is still leaning towards weakness $BTC #美国非农数据超预期
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December 17 au～oil market analysis and trading suggestions Haohan Liujinwen
Based on the U.S. November non-farm data and retail sales data released on the evening of December 16, as well as the latest market dynamics today
Gold market analysis and trading suggestions
The overall performance of the U.S. November non-farm data was weak, confirming the Federal Reserve's moderate interest rate cut last week, and providing support for subsequent rate cuts; meanwhile, the growth rate of U.S. December retail sales fell to a six-month low, providing multiple benefits to support gold.
In the last trading session, gold fluctuated, retreating near 4317 in the early session, stabilizing and oscillating after dipping to 4271 during the Asian and European sessions. After the non-farm data was released, gold prices stabilized above 4300, with a peak at 4334, then retreated to 4291 before rising again, ultimately closing at 4332.2 dollars / ounce. As of today at 9:52, London gold is reported at 4324.65 dollars / ounce, a slight increase of 0.39%. Gold is currently at historical highs, and market fear of heights is rising; the short-term oscillation pattern will continue, and it is not advisable to be overly aggressive in operations.
Trading suggestion: short near 4330 in the early session, targeting around 4306/4296.
Crude oil market analysis and trading suggestions
The crude oil market has conflicting factors, on one hand, significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks regarding security guarantees; on the other hand, U.S. President Trump ordered on the 16th a comprehensive blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Meanwhile, the recent weak non-farm and retail sales data from the U.S. have become the core suppressive factors for crude oil trends, leading to a continued weak performance. In the last trading session, crude oil broke through the strong support of 56 dollars, showing a four-day bearish pattern on the daily chart. As of today at 9:52, the main crude oil report is 423.6 yuan, down 1.83%, with a clear downward trend in the technical aspect.
Trading suggestion: short near 56.5 on the rebound, targeting the 55/54 line #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC
Based on the U.S. November non-farm data and retail sales data released on the evening of December 16, as well as the latest market dynamics today
Gold market analysis and trading suggestions
The overall performance of the U.S. November non-farm data was weak, confirming the Federal Reserve's moderate interest rate cut last week, and providing support for subsequent rate cuts; meanwhile, the growth rate of U.S. December retail sales fell to a six-month low, providing multiple benefits to support gold.
In the last trading session, gold fluctuated, retreating near 4317 in the early session, stabilizing and oscillating after dipping to 4271 during the Asian and European sessions. After the non-farm data was released, gold prices stabilized above 4300, with a peak at 4334, then retreated to 4291 before rising again, ultimately closing at 4332.2 dollars / ounce. As of today at 9:52, London gold is reported at 4324.65 dollars / ounce, a slight increase of 0.39%. Gold is currently at historical highs, and market fear of heights is rising; the short-term oscillation pattern will continue, and it is not advisable to be overly aggressive in operations.
Trading suggestion: short near 4330 in the early session, targeting around 4306/4296.
Crude oil market analysis and trading suggestions
The crude oil market has conflicting factors, on one hand, significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks regarding security guarantees; on the other hand, U.S. President Trump ordered on the 16th a comprehensive blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Meanwhile, the recent weak non-farm and retail sales data from the U.S. have become the core suppressive factors for crude oil trends, leading to a continued weak performance. In the last trading session, crude oil broke through the strong support of 56 dollars, showing a four-day bearish pattern on the daily chart. As of today at 9:52, the main crude oil report is 423.6 yuan, down 1.83%, with a clear downward trend in the technical aspect.
Trading suggestion: short near 56.5 on the rebound, targeting the 55/54 line #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC
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Non-Farm Payroll Outlook: Short-term Trading Opportunities Focus on This Key Level
Last night, bought at 4285, took profit at 4310; this morning reversed to short and made another profit, now everyone is focused on the non-farm data, just waiting for a big market to cash in!
After yesterday's drop, the rebound strength is weak, the 4300 round number just can't break through, it has been stagnant for a long time, it might turn into a 'paint door' market, with back-and-forth sweeping of longs and shorts!
The daily line shows signs of increased volume, the RSI indicator has turned down, the strategy remains unchanged: after the non-farm data is released, short first!
Entry points aim for 4300-4305, short-term target looks at 4270, ultra-short stop loss should be set well, quick entry and exit without lingering.
Last night, bought at 4285, took profit at 4310; this morning reversed to short and made another profit, now everyone is focused on the non-farm data, just waiting for a big market to cash in!
After yesterday's drop, the rebound strength is weak, the 4300 round number just can't break through, it has been stagnant for a long time, it might turn into a 'paint door' market, with back-and-forth sweeping of longs and shorts!
The daily line shows signs of increased volume, the RSI indicator has turned down, the strategy remains unchanged: after the non-farm data is released, short first!
Entry points aim for 4300-4305, short-term target looks at 4270, ultra-short stop loss should be set well, quick entry and exit without lingering.
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Recent AU
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December 16 Gold Evening Trading Thoughts: Pre-Non-Farm, the Short Position Strategy Remains Unchanged
The intraday gold trend is in line with expectations and is weakening. The current market is waiting for the publication of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Report, unemployment claims data, and retail sales data for October-November at 21:30 this evening. Overall, it is expected to maintain a state of震荡整理. Considering the current market situation, I still expect that the data will be favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold after release. This evening's trading strategy is adjusted to go short around 4295, with a target of 4250. Strictly control positions, pay attention to risks, and wait for data to guide direction$BTC #BinanceABCs
The intraday gold trend is in line with expectations and is weakening. The current market is waiting for the publication of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Report, unemployment claims data, and retail sales data for October-November at 21:30 this evening. Overall, it is expected to maintain a state of震荡整理. Considering the current market situation, I still expect that the data will be favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold after release. This evening's trading strategy is adjusted to go short around 4295, with a target of 4250. Strictly control positions, pay attention to risks, and wait for data to guide direction$BTC #BinanceABCs
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Data is tumultuous, AU is stable.
Yesterday's gold market once again performed an exhilarating high-level roller coaster in front of everyone's eyes, showing no sign of secretly gaining strength, just openly pulling between long and short positions.
Recently, the timing for the outbreak of gold's market has basically been stuck at 11 PM, and last night did not escape this rule.
Before this point in time, gold rose from the Asian session all the way to the US session, and even though the previous high had not been broken, there wasn't any sign of a pullback, maintaining a state of high-level sideways fluctuations. Coupled with the inherently strong V-shaped rebound force, those who wanted to short before basically tried to do so during the rebound process in the daytime and ended up losing. After all, at that time, no one could have imagined that gold would rebound so quickly and so high, and could continue to maintain high-level fluctuations, clearly indicating a trend of moving upward, so naturally, no one wanted to easily bet on a decline anymore.
Recently, the timing for the outbreak of gold's market has basically been stuck at 11 PM, and last night did not escape this rule.
Before this point in time, gold rose from the Asian session all the way to the US session, and even though the previous high had not been broken, there wasn't any sign of a pullback, maintaining a state of high-level sideways fluctuations. Coupled with the inherently strong V-shaped rebound force, those who wanted to short before basically tried to do so during the rebound process in the daytime and ended up losing. After all, at that time, no one could have imagined that gold would rebound so quickly and so high, and could continue to maintain high-level fluctuations, clearly indicating a trend of moving upward, so naturally, no one wanted to easily bet on a decline anymore.
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AI concept stocks plunge! U.S. stocks closed lower, and the divergence over interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve intensified.
Overnight, U.S. stocks opened high but closed low, with all three major indices collectively declining. The AI infrastructure sector led the drop, with CoreWeave plummeting nearly 8%, Broadcom falling over 5%, and Oracle dropping over 2%.
The market is worried that the substantial investments in the AI field may not yield equivalent returns. Oracle is relying on debt to bolster its data center construction, raising its capital expenditure to $50 billion, with its debt-to-asset ratio soaring to 500%, prompting analysts to warn of cash flow and rating risks; Broadcom is also being sold off due to pressure on profit margins from its AI chip business.
There is a clear divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts: Governor Mian is calling for faster cuts, worried about the deterioration of the labor market; New York Fed President Williams believes the policy stance is appropriate, and inflation will ease as employment cools; Boston Fed President Collins described last week’s support for rate cuts as a "difficult decision."
CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January next year is only 24.4%, and the cumulative probability of a rate cut in March is less than 50%. Additionally, Trump’s camp opposes Hassett’s candidacy for Federal Reserve Chair. Most tech stocks fell, while Tesla and NVIDIA rose against the trend $BTC #BinanceABCs .
Overnight, U.S. stocks opened high but closed low, with all three major indices collectively declining. The AI infrastructure sector led the drop, with CoreWeave plummeting nearly 8%, Broadcom falling over 5%, and Oracle dropping over 2%.
The market is worried that the substantial investments in the AI field may not yield equivalent returns. Oracle is relying on debt to bolster its data center construction, raising its capital expenditure to $50 billion, with its debt-to-asset ratio soaring to 500%, prompting analysts to warn of cash flow and rating risks; Broadcom is also being sold off due to pressure on profit margins from its AI chip business.
There is a clear divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts: Governor Mian is calling for faster cuts, worried about the deterioration of the labor market; New York Fed President Williams believes the policy stance is appropriate, and inflation will ease as employment cools; Boston Fed President Collins described last week’s support for rate cuts as a "difficult decision."
CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January next year is only 24.4%, and the cumulative probability of a rate cut in March is less than 50%. Additionally, Trump’s camp opposes Hassett’s candidacy for Federal Reserve Chair. Most tech stocks fell, while Tesla and NVIDIA rose against the trend $BTC #BinanceABCs .
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How to view new energy
When it comes to new energy, the first things that come to mind are photovoltaics and wind power. However, in fact, the prospects for hydrogen energy are not any worse than these.
Its calorific value is the highest among all fuels, reaching 142KJ (kilojoules) per gram, which is three times that of oil and 4.5 times that of coal. Moreover, the combustion of hydrogen produces water, which not only does not cause pollution but can also be recycled.
The most critical point is that hydrogen is extremely abundant; about 75% of the weight of the entire universe is composed of hydrogen, making it essentially inexhaustible. For this reason, hydrogen energy is referred to as the ultimate energy source of the 21st century.
Its calorific value is the highest among all fuels, reaching 142KJ (kilojoules) per gram, which is three times that of oil and 4.5 times that of coal. Moreover, the combustion of hydrogen produces water, which not only does not cause pollution but can also be recycled.
The most critical point is that hydrogen is extremely abundant; about 75% of the weight of the entire universe is composed of hydrogen, making it essentially inexhaustible. For this reason, hydrogen energy is referred to as the ultimate energy source of the 21st century.
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