#原油 12.17 Evening Oil Strategy
The core negative factors of oversupply and the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations remain unchanged. After the mid-term strong support at 56 was broken, market bearish sentiment solidified. This rebound is merely a profit-taking and technical correction by bears, unable to reverse the bearish logic of the mid-term fundamentals;
Four consecutive daily declines, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement, have confirmed the mid-term downward channel; The rebound on the hourly chart has not broken through the previous resistance at 57.595. Although the moving averages have slightly turned in the short term, the overall bearish arrangement has not changed, and after the rebound, it will still return to the downward trend;
The MACD on the hourly chart has limited red bar expansion after a golden cross below the zero axis. Indicators show that selling signals are emerging around 56.31, and the upper Bollinger band is exerting pressure on prices, confirming insufficient rebound momentum, with bears still dominant.
Trading Suggestion: Light short positions near 56.5-56.8
Stop Loss: 57.2
Target: 55.5, 56.0
