$ETH $BNB $DOGE Will China loosen cryptocurrency regulations? In the next ten years, the difficulty is extremely high.
There are three logical reasons:
1. Pressure from capital controls
China’s asset prices have long been higher than overseas, and there has always been an impulse for capital outflow. Cryptocurrencies are a cross-border channel to bypass regulations, and once loosened, the outflow pressure will increase exponentially.
2. Current economic cycle position
We are currently in the 'balance sheet recession' phase: enterprises are deleveraging, real estate is being cleared, and local debts are under pressure. The economy needs 'support', not 'relief'. If cryptocurrencies are loosened, they will become an uncontrolled outlet in the financial system.
3. Policy priority ranking
The current policy priorities are very clear: stabilize finance > stabilize growth > structural reform. Any variable that may impact financial stability has no operational space.
The conclusion is very clear:
Not loosening in the short term is a rational decision, not a conservative mistake. The issue is not with cryptocurrencies themselves, but with macro constraints.
What does the future hold?
Loosening will certainly happen, but not in this round of the cycle.
The real window period requires waiting:
· Asset bubble clearance
· Convergence of domestic and foreign asset price differences
· The internationalization of the renminbi entering a new stage
The trend is certain, but the timing is uncertain.
Patience is more important than being aggressive. #美联储降息 #隐私叙事回归
