Tomorrow's CPI annual rate drama, will the crypto market rise or fall?
Tomorrow at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. November CPI annual rate will make its debut, with market consensus expecting 3.0%-3.1% (previous value 3.0%). This number will directly determine the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts in 2026 and will trigger significant volatility in the crypto market.
Above expectations (>3.1%): Inflation remains stubborn, dreams of rate cuts shattered. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields soar, and Bitcoin may plummet 3%-8% in the short term, leading to liquidations and a market-wide drop, with altcoins suffering even more. Short-term pain, but the foundation of the bull market remains intact.
Below expectations (<3.0%): Inflation cools down, and easing measures are intensified. The dollar plunges, and funds rush into risk assets, with Bitcoin easily rising 5%-10% on the day, while ETH and SOL follow suit in a celebration, likely kicking off a new wave of upward momentum.
In line with expectations: High probability of “selling the fact,” followed by slight fluctuations leaning towards bullishness. Don't forget to keep an eye on the core CPI annual rate, as it often serves as the true barometer.
The current environment is extremely friendly to risk assets; with low or in-line expectations, bulls have a greater chance of winning. Although exceeding expectations can be frightening, it is merely short-term noise.
In the long run, the main logic of the crypto bull market is solid as a rock; this round of CPI is just a stop along the way.
Get ready to embrace tomorrow's thrilling moments! ! !#sol
