As of December 18, 2025, 06:55, London gold is reported at $4338.14 per ounce (+0.70%), gold T+D at 977.2 yuan per gram (+0.42%), and Shanghai gold main contract at 982.48 yuan per gram (+0.53%). Overall, it is fluctuating at high levels, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, while remaining cautious of overbought pullbacks and data disturbances.

1. Core Prices and Key Levels

• International Gold: Short-term support at 4297-4310, resistance at 4345-4380. If it stabilizes above 4350, look for 4380-4385.

• Domestic Gold: Gold T+D support at 970, resistance at 980; Shanghai gold main contract support at 975, resistance at 985.

2. Market Driving Factors

1. Monetary Policy: Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising, the US dollar is weakening, and real interest rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is the core support.

2. Central Bank Gold Purchases: Central banks worldwide continue to increase their holdings, forming strong support on the demand side.

3. Geopolitical Risks: Escalating US-Venezuela tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are bringing in safe-haven buying, boosting gold prices in the short term.

4. Short-term Disturbances: Attention should be paid to upcoming US CPI and non-farm data; data exceeding expectations may suppress interest rate cut expectations, leading to profit-taking.

3. Technical Overview

• Daily: Bullish alignment, strong support from the 5/10/20-day moving averages, RSI is neutral to strong, MACD golden cross above the zero axis, bullish momentum remains but watch for overbought conditions.

• 4-hour: High-level fluctuations, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, MACD death cross is closing, RSI is retreating from overbought, indicating a need for a pullback.

• 1-hour: Upward trend, Bollinger Bands are opening, MACD golden cross is expanding, RSI is rebounding from oversold, short-term momentum is strong.

4. Trading Suggestions (for reference only)

• Long Strategy: Buy lightly on pullbacks to stabilize at 4300-4310, stop loss at 4280, target 4340-4350; if it dips to the strong support area of 4266-4275, increase positions, stop loss at 4250, target 4300-4320.

• Short Strategy: Lightly short on rebounds at 4340-4350 with a stop loss at 4360, target 4310-4300; if it breaks 4350, observe or follow the trend with a short buy, do not chase highs. #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #亚洲家族办公室加密资产配置