2025 was a remarkable year for the cryptocurrency market—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple all reached historic highs, stablecoins and tokenization became mainstream terms, and large financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch opened up cryptocurrency ETF investment channels. Despite the market experiencing a pullback from its peak, the positive momentum of institutional adoption and regulatory progress is strong and difficult to hinder in the long term. Against this backdrop, Bitwise Asset Management released its top ten cryptocurrency predictions for 2026, providing direction for investors.
Core Prediction: Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a four-year cycle of "three years of increase, one year of correction," and 2026 was supposed to be a correction year. However, this pattern will be broken. The impact of halving events will be halved successively, with interest rates expected to decline in 2026, and the leverage level reduced after record liquidations in October 2025 will significantly lower market crash risks. More importantly, platforms like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are beginning to allocate cryptocurrency assets, and the influx of institutional funds will accelerate in 2026. These factors will collectively drive Bitcoin to reach new historical highs.
Institutional demand explodes: ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new supply
Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, these investment tools have purchased 710,777 BTC, while during the same period, the Bitcoin network only produced 363,047 new BTC. In 2026, the expected new supply will be approximately 166,000 BTC ($15.3 billion), 960,000 ETH ($3 billion), and 23,000,000 Solana ($3.2 billion). As more large financial institutions open cryptocurrency ETF investment channels to clients, demand will far exceed supply, laying a solid foundation for prices.
Regulatory breakthrough: The CLARITY Act is a key variable
If the "market structure" legislation in the form of the CLARITY Act is passed, it will provide clear guidance for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC. This will trigger a bull market in the cryptocurrency market, with ETH and Solana becoming major beneficiaries, and prices are expected to soar to historical highs. Even if the bill does not pass, fundamental factors such as institutional adoption and stablecoin growth will still support the market.
Emerging trend: The size of stablecoins will reach $500 billion
The stablecoin market size has grown from $205 billion at the beginning of the year to nearly $300 billion, and is expected to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026. This growth is mainly concentrated in emerging markets, especially in high-inflation areas. While stablecoins provide savers with a higher quality, cheaper, and faster way to transfer funds, the Bank for International Settlements has warned that they may undermine the monetary sovereignty of relevant jurisdictions. It is anticipated that in 2026, some countries will explicitly blame stablecoins for their currency problems.
Investment opportunity: Cryptocurrency stocks will outperform technology stocks
In the past three years, the return on investment in technology stocks reached 140%, but cryptocurrency-related stocks surged by as much as 585%. As the clarity of U.S. regulations improves, regulated cryptocurrency companies find it easier to operate and innovate; cases like Coinbase restarting ICOs and Circle launching its own Layer-1 blockchain have begun to show results. In 2026, a more optimistic regulatory environment will foster new products, new revenue sources, and merger activities, and cryptocurrency-related stocks will perform outstandingly.
Other important predictions
Polymarket's open contracts will reach a historical high: This prediction market has been opened to U.S. users, and with a $2 billion investment support from the Intercontinental Exchange, it will easily surpass the $500 million record set during the 2024 election in 2026.
Half of the Ivy League endowment funds will invest in cryptocurrencies: Brown University has taken the lead in allocating Bitcoin ETFs, with Ivy League endowments totaling $871 billion, and their investment decisions will guide the flow of institutional funds.
The United States will launch over 100 cryptocurrency-related ETFs: The SEC has released general listing standards, with Solana, Ripple, and Dogecoin ETFs being listed consecutively, and a "ETF carnival" is expected in 2026.
Bitcoin volatility will be lower than Nvidia's: By 2025, Bitcoin's volatility has already fallen below Nvidia's, and this trend will continue in 2026, reflecting a reduction in the fundamental risks of Bitcoin as an investment asset.
On-chain treasury asset management scale will double: This "2.0 version ETF" field will attract high-quality managers after experiencing fluctuations in 2025, with asset management scale continuing to grow from a peak of $8.8 billion.
The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease: Unique factors in the cryptocurrency field, such as regulatory progress and institutional adoption, will drive prices up, even as the stock market faces challenges.
2026 will be a year of accelerated institutionalization in the cryptocurrency market, with multiple factors such as regulatory breakthroughs, institutional fund inflows, and product innovation collectively driving market development. Investors should pay attention to regulatory progress, institutional allocation dynamics, and emerging product opportunities to seize this growth cycle.#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向 $ETH $
