1. Today's Key Macro Event (November CPI Release Tonight ~20:30 WIB / 8:30 AM ET):
Expected Core CPI YoY: Around 3.1% (delayed due to shutdown, partial data).
This is crucial: High inflation → Hawkish Fed, risk-off. Low inflation → Dovish, more rate cuts, risk-on rally.
2. Current Sentiment:
Fear & Greed Index: 16–17 (Extreme Fear, slight rise from 16 yesterday)
X/Twitter: 70% bearish/cautious (anticipating CPI volatility, frustration with choppy action), 30% contrarian bullish ("extreme fear = bottom signal", whales accumulating)
3. On-chain: Stable, no major dumps, RSI oversold – historically often leads to rebounds
Trading Scenarios Today (Based on CPI Outcome):
A. Bullish Scenario (Prob ~40–50% - If CPI ≤3.0% or lower):
Dovish inflation → USD drops, risk assets rally.
BTC: Breaks $88–90K resistance → short-term target $92–95K.
ETH: Tests $3,100–3,200.
Impact: Strong relief rally, sentiment flips to greed, altcoins pump (RWA/AI sector rotation).
Strategy: Buy dips pre-release or chase breakout post-CPI. Accumulate BTC/ETH.
B. Bearish Scenario (Prob ~40% - If CPI ≥3.2% or higher):
Hawkish inflation → USD rises, risk assets sell-off.
BTC: Drops to $85K support → potential $80–82K if broken.
ETH: Falls to $2,800 or lower.
Impact: Increased fear, liquidation cascade, watch for capitulation.
Strategy: Short resistance at $88K or hold cash, prepare to buy deeper dips.
C. Neutral/Chop Scenario (Prob ~20% - If CPI exactly 3.1%):
No surprise → sideways grinding.
BTC: Range-bound $86–88K.
Impact: Status quo, high trader fatigue.
Strategy: Avoid large entries, small scalps or wait for clarity.
Conclusion & My Recommendations:
1. High volatility expected today — don't go all-in before CPI.
2. Overall: Short-term uncertain (bearish bias due to high fear), but long-term bullish (institutional inflows + liquidity into 2026).
3. Best approach: Hold 60–70% cash, gradually accumulate on supports if dovish outcome. Avoid FOMO or FUD.
4. Watch: Post-CPI reactions often overreact → contrarian opportunities.
