ngab PII

Daily Crypto Update - December 19, 2025 (Concise Bullet Points)

Current Prices:
BTC: ~$85,300–$88,900 (fluctuating, down 1–2% today after a brief pump to $89K yesterday)
ETH: ~$2,800–$3,000 (deeper drop, ~3–4%)
Total Market Cap: ~$2.9T–$3.0T (slight decline, high volatility)

Macro Update (Post-Yesterday's CPI):
- November CPI: 2.7% YoY (core 2.6%), lower than expected 3.1% → dovish signal, but economists skeptical due to distorted data from government shutdown (missing October data).
- Market reaction: Initial rally (BTC hit $89K), but quickly faded → choppy action, no sustained breakout.
- Today: Focus on BOJ rate decision (expected 0.25% hike) → potential stronger yen, unwinding carry trades, risk-off pressure on crypto.

Key News Today:
- $23B options expiration next week → added volatility expected.
- ETF inflows rebounded yesterday, but overall flows remain mixed.
- Status quo: Consolidation after dovish but noisy CPI data.

Sentiment:
- Fear & Greed Index: 17 (Extreme Fear, staying low)
- X/Twitter: Mixed — 70% cautious/bearish (chop, manipulation chatter), 30% contrarian bullish (extreme fear = buy signal, institutional accumulation)
- On-chain: Stable, whales holding, no major liquidation cascades.

possibly :
- Short-term (today–this week): Volatile with bearish bias (potential test of $83–85K BTC if BOJ hawkish). But extreme fear + dovish CPI could trigger relief rally to $90K+.
- Medium-term (end of Dec–Jan 2026): Bullish — improving liquidity, Fed rate cuts, institutional inflows support rebound (target $100K+ BTC).
- Long-term: Strongly bullish (cycle peak Q1–Q2 2026, potential $150–200K).

Trading Advice:
- Avoid all-in right now — high volatility ahead of BOJ.
- Hold 60–70% cash, gradually accumulate BTC/ETH at supports around $85K (contrarian buy in extreme fear).
- If BOJ dovish → buy the rally; if hawkish → short or stay in cash.
Long-term: Hold core assets, no panic selling.
#NotFinancialadvice #DoYourResearch $BTC $ETH

*Real Vision Geopolitics TL;DR*

1. Geopolitics = Major Market Driver
According to Real Vision, markets are now heavily influenced by geopolitical factors—more than ever in this shifting global landscape.
2. US–EU Relations Cracking
It's not just Trump; future US policy will stay "America First." Europe is being forced toward greater independence in defense, energy, and trade.
3. Venezuela:
Not primarily about oil. It's more about the US signaling power and dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Global market impact remains limited.
4. Ukraine:
The war only ends if Putin or Zelenskyy compromises—but realistically, it's likely to drag on until 2026 or beyond.
5. Multipolar World:
Expect many small-scale conflicts, but a full-scale WW3 is unlikely. The world is fragmenting into competing blocs rather than unified globalization.
6. Populism in 2026:
Rising unemployment combined with AI and robotics advancements will fuel new waves of populist politics. (In essence: People risk being "discarded" when no longer economically needed.)
7. Big Signal:
Mexico choosing to align more closely with the North American bloc highlights a broader trend: The world is increasingly organized into regional blocks rather than a truly global system.

This aligns with ongoing Real Vision themes on geopolitics driving macro risks, institutional shifts, and long-term market volatility. Stay tuned for how these play into 2026 liquidity and asset cycles! 🚀

1. Today's Key Macro Event (November CPI Release Tonight ~20:30 WIB / 8:30 AM ET):
Expected Core CPI YoY: Around 3.1% (delayed due to shutdown, partial data).
This is crucial: High inflation → Hawkish Fed, risk-off. Low inflation → Dovish, more rate cuts, risk-on rally.
2. Current Sentiment:
Fear & Greed Index: 16–17 (Extreme Fear, slight rise from 16 yesterday)
X/Twitter: 70% bearish/cautious (anticipating CPI volatility, frustration with choppy action), 30% contrarian bullish ("extreme fear = bottom signal", whales accumulating)
3. On-chain: Stable, no major dumps, RSI oversold – historically often leads to rebounds
Trading Scenarios Today (Based on CPI Outcome):
A. Bullish Scenario (Prob ~40–50% - If CPI ≤3.0% or lower):
Dovish inflation → USD drops, risk assets rally.
BTC: Breaks $88–90K resistance → short-term target $92–95K.
ETH: Tests $3,100–3,200.
Impact: Strong relief rally, sentiment flips to greed, altcoins pump (RWA/AI sector rotation).
Strategy: Buy dips pre-release or chase breakout post-CPI. Accumulate BTC/ETH.
B. Bearish Scenario (Prob ~40% - If CPI ≥3.2% or higher):
Hawkish inflation → USD rises, risk assets sell-off.
BTC: Drops to $85K support → potential $80–82K if broken.
ETH: Falls to $2,800 or lower.
Impact: Increased fear, liquidation cascade, watch for capitulation.
Strategy: Short resistance at $88K or hold cash, prepare to buy deeper dips.
C. Neutral/Chop Scenario (Prob ~20% - If CPI exactly 3.1%):
No surprise → sideways grinding.
BTC: Range-bound $86–88K.
Impact: Status quo, high trader fatigue.
Strategy: Avoid large entries, small scalps or wait for clarity.

Conclusion & My Recommendations:

1. High volatility expected today — don't go all-in before CPI.
2. Overall: Short-term uncertain (bearish bias due to high fear), but long-term bullish (institutional inflows + liquidity into 2026).
3. Best approach: Hold 60–70% cash, gradually accumulate on supports if dovish outcome. Avoid FOMO or FUD.
4. Watch: Post-CPI reactions often overreact → contrarian opportunities.
#CPIWatch #macroeconomic

1. Short-term (today - this week): Be careful, don't go all-in long. The market is still volatile with high fear → potential for another dip to $85K or lower if it fails to hold support.
Avoid FOMO on weak rallies.
Hold high cash (50-70%) or stablecoins.
If you have long positions, set tight stop-losses.
Best Strategy: Accumulate on dips gradually (DCA) on BTC/ETH at strong support levels ($85-86K for BTC).
Extreme fear has historically often been a contrarian bottom signal.

2. Long-term: Remain bullish. The institutional narrative (ETFs, tokenization, Nasdaq 24/7 vibe) is strong → potential cycle peak in Q1-Q2 2026.
Don't panic sell core assets.
Watch Tomorrow (Dec 18): US CPI — if inflation is low → dovish Fed → risk-on rally (buy opportunity). If high → additional bearishness.
Conclusion: Now is the time for patience & gradual accumulation, not chasing highs or panicking. The market is in a "grind" fear phase, but long-term fundamentals are solid. Update again tomorrow after CPI!
#CPIWatch #Binance #macroeconomic