I am Qi He. I just saw a breaking news, and taking another look at the ETH market, I feel a bit cold on my back. Tonight's market might be a 'clear trap', so I quickly came online to explain it to everyone.
Looking at the news: the 'calming pill' in the early morning is actually a 'sleeping drug'?
On December 18, according to CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch' data: there is a 75.6%! probability that the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged in January, keeping interest rates steady. By March next year, the probability of maintaining interest rates will still be 46%!
Many people see: 'No interest rate hike and no cut, it's stable! Good for risk assets!' If you think this way, you might suffer losses. Qi He translates it into plain language: this essentially tells the market that the US dollar won't become 'cheaper' in the short term, and the high interest rate environment will continue. This is fundamentally a medium to long-term pressure for the crypto market that relies on global liquidity 'injections' for support. The main players can completely use this illusion of 'short-term bad news being exhausted' to rally, and then hit hard.
Looking at the technical side again: The rise on the 1-hour chart may be a 'flash in the pan'.
The chart you sent is very clear, the current price is 2825, the strong resistance above is 3015, the key neckline below is 2880, and 2785 is an important support.
Dangerous MACD: The white and yellow lines are moving downward with a dead cross below the 0 axis, which is a clear signal of a bearish trend, indicating that the momentum of the decline has not been fully released. Any rise, before standing above the 0 axis, should be regarded as a rebound.
Weird 'uptrend' annotation: Combined with the MACD dead cross, this 'rise' is very suspicious. It seems more like a technical pullback in a downtrend, aiming to touch the key level of 2880 to test the market's selling pressure.
Volume mystery: Breakout with volume? Volume increase below the key resistance level may indicate that the main players are unloading their positions, attracting retail investors to follow suit.
What should players do tonight?
If you are in cash/light positions: Resist your urge! Don’t chase just because you see a bullish candle. The area around 2825 is definitely not a good chasing position. The real opportunity is to wait for it to make a directional choice.
Key monitoring level: 2880 USD. This is tonight's 'line of life and death.'
If the price approaches 2880 and struggles to rise, then it’s time for you to consider placing short positions at high levels or reducing your spot holdings.
If you are heavily positioned and stuck: A rebound to the 2880-2900 area is your chance to decisively reduce your holdings and lower risk; don't fantasize about a direct V-shaped reversal.
Qi He’s personal opinion:
Tonight and over the next two days, ETH is highly unlikely to surpass 3015. The real battleground is at 2880. Here is either heaven or hell. The probability of a strong breakthrough above 3015 and stabilizing tonight is less than 30%. A greater possibility is: first feigning a rise near 3010, then quickly turning down to test the key level of 2880. If 2880 cannot hold, we might even see 2785 or 2600.
The market is always changing, but the strategies of the main players and human nature remain the same. Tonight, the main players want to use the chaos of news and the illusion of a technical rebound to trap hesitant people at high positions. Remember, in a downtrend, every rebound is for a better drop.
If you don’t want to be the one getting harvested, and want to understand the true intentions of the main players, follow Qi He, join the chat room, let us help you avoid pitfalls, and be the first to analyze subsequent capital movements, seizing every profitable window!
