#黄金 U.S. CPI and initial jobless claims data are coming, precious metal trading needs to closely monitor signals
In December, the U.S. will release the November CPI and the initial jobless claims for the week of December 13, both of which are crucial indicators; the former is a core five-star metric for measuring inflation and directly affects the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, while the latter is a four-star employment indicator that reflects the state of the labor market. Together, they serve as key disruptive factors in the precious metals market.
Gold and silver are priced in U.S. dollars and have a highly negative correlation with the dollar and the Federal Reserve's policy expectations: if the CPI exceeds expectations and the initial claims data is lower than expected, the combination of high inflation and strong employment will boost hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on precious metals; if the CPI is below expectations and the initial claims data is higher than expected, the cooling of inflation and weak employment will intensify bets on interest rate cuts, resulting in a weaker dollar and a favorable environment for precious metals, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to greater elasticity; if the data diverges, precious metals are likely to fall into volatility.
Investors need to be cautious: avoid heavy positions before data release to prevent risks from short-term gaps and volatile fluctuations; assess trends based on a combination of data rather than focusing on a single data point; strictly set stop-loss and take-profit levels and control positions, especially since silver tends to have greater volatility; also, follow the Federal Reserve's comments and market interpretations after the data release to promptly adjust trading strategies.
