Two macro shocks are coming, and the crypto market is at a critical point

$BTC has plummeted from 90375 to 85328, and $ETH has dropped below 2800—this is just an appetizer. In the next 48 hours, two financial nuclear bombs will be detonated sequentially, and global risk assets are about to be repriced.

The timeline is clear:

On December 18, the anticipated reshaping (has occurred)

Trump's logic is not to save the market, but to give investors a preventive shot. The key points are three: emphasize that employment data stabilizes the fundamentals, imply that hawkish figures like Kevin Warsh will be nominated to the core decision-making circle of the Federal Reserve, and release the possibility of long-term interest rate cuts to the market—but there are no short-term stimulus policies. The market is digesting amid speculation.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan's move (countdown)

This is the real shockwave. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. There may also be signals of accelerated rate hikes, which will immediately trigger the unwinding of carry trades—the yen will appreciate, and all positions financed in yen to buy risk assets will suffer losses, forcing stop-losses. Cryptocurrencies, emerging markets, and high-leverage assets cannot escape.

The current situation is a life-and-death moment

The fear index has exploded, and if BTC can hold 85000, and ETH can hold 2700-2800, that is the lifeline. With such thin liquidity, once the support is broken, a chain liquidation will explode instantly—this is not a scare tactic.

If you are still trading, remember these points firmly:

1. Don’t focus on Trump's big picture, focus on his wording. Once he mentions "safety", risk appetite continues to be pressured down; as long as he talks about "growth", short-term sentiment may catch a breather.

2. The key to the Bank of Japan's decision is not the interest rate itself, but their description of the future path. If they only raise rates as expected, the worst outcome has already been priced in ("the shoe has dropped"); but if they imply acceleration, a new wave of volatility will be directly ignited.

3. Positions must be light enough. Once any key support is breached, stop-loss without hesitation—this is not the time to bet on a one-sided market.

The golden age of cheap liquidity is truly over. What is being tested now is not whether one can guess the policy correctly, but whether one can manage their positions and understand the shift in public opinion. In the eye of the storm, calm adjustments are always more valuable than panicking and following the crowd.