🚀Japan's monetary policy meeting time for short-term and long-term market considerations, has the opportunity arrived?
1 First, let's talk about the chip structure -- not great. From the perspective of a solid market, it doesn't look comfortable enough.
2 The Japanese monetary policy meeting is a buying opportunity worth paying attention to. Note that I said opportunity; risk-sensitive money seeks certainty.
Let's first talk about Japan:
Why pay attention to the monetary policy meeting? It's not the general opinion of 0.75 on the market's impact. If executed as planned, there seems to be no problem, and it is fully digested. The focus is on whether there will be any unexpected issues.
Now let's talk about Japan and the US:
Under the trend of interest rate cuts, the dollar tends to weaken, and the pressure on the Japanese exchange rate is a positive trend, which is beneficial in the long term.
Now let's talk about liquidity:
Currently, there seems to be no major issues with market liquidity (when there are issues, I tweeted about it on November 4th, and if there are liquidity problems again, I will likely tweet about it), and the long-term trend of easing has begun. The logic of capital outflow is valid.
From a deleveraging perspective, there are two important time periods to note.
1 Clarity to eliminate unexpected issues.
2 The last market accumulation explosion of Carry Trade in August developed from July to August, and there are clues in the market, especially in the 24 hours before the explosion. This is not alarmist but a neutral statement. Previously, I discussed Carry Trade chip structures and other issues on Twitter; if interested, please look for it yourself, I won't elaborate further.
Summary:
1 Danger is an opportunity; the trend of quantitative easing coexists with crisis, and opportunity outweighs danger.
2 The unsightly chip structure is a fact, and the reopening dates of Europe and the US are also there.
3 As a left-side investor, the long-term trend is the key principle. This moment is worth focusing on, seeking crisis and short-term (three months) certainty, gradually looking for opportunities to build positions in escaping top chips.
The above does not constitute investment advice; it is a self-summary and sharing of knowledge and action. Different opinions are welcome for discussion.