Asian market morning dynamics
On Thursday (December 18), in the Asian market morning, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, trading around $4330 per ounce.
Overnight, London gold rose sharply, driven by two core factors: first, the weak signals from the U.S. labor market reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut; second, the U.S. implemented a 'blockade' on Venezuelan oil tankers, increasing geopolitical tensions and boosting gold's safe-haven demand.
The precious metals sector strengthened collectively, with silver breaking through the $66 mark, reaching a historical high of $66.88 per ounce, and platinum also touching a 17-year high.
Key influencing factors for the market
The trend of gold will be dominated by two key variables: first, if CPI and PCE data confirm a cooling of inflation, expectations for rate cuts will further increase, benefiting gold prices; second, if the situation in Venezuela escalates into conflict, safe-haven demand may surge.
Close attention should be paid to the upcoming inflation data and Trump's nationwide speech. The strong performance of silver may indicate a continuation of rotation in the precious metals sector, with gold remaining a core safe-haven asset, still showing significant allocation value.
Technical analysis
Daily level: Gold fluctuates widely upward, stabilizing above the 5-day moving average with a positive close, the 10/7-day moving average opening upwards, respectively rising to 4268 and 4300 levels, with prices maintaining operation in the upper-middle band of the Bollinger Bands.
Four-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the RSI indicator is flat on the midline, continuing adjustments without showing volume increase, the moving average system remains opening upwards, and the daily probability continues to show a fluctuating trend.
Overall, all indicator moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, with effective support at 4290-4300; 4350 is the short-term resistance level, and after a breakthrough, attention should be paid to the previous high of the 4380 area, being wary of a 'triple top' pressure forming at this position.
Intraday trading strategy
Focus on positioning for low buy on retracements, with high sell as assistance, and do not chase after gains near key resistance levels.
Gold trading strategy
Short-term long position: Enter at 4315-4320, stop loss at 4300, target at 4350-4370
Short-term short position: Enter at 4350-4355, stop loss at 4370, target at 4300-4270
Key levels
First support level: 4323 Second support level: 4306 Third support level: 4292
First resistance level: 4350 Second resistance level: 4381 Third resistance level: 4400
