2025.12.18 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. Some brothers asked why it went up yesterday and then fell down again. In fact, the analysis yesterday already concluded: the closer we get to the release of the CPI data and the interest rate hike in Japan, the more the market panic will amplify.

It may drop below $85000. The CPI will be released tonight at 21:30, and after the Bank of Japan announces the interest rate hike tomorrow, the short-term situation may not improve much, it depends on the CPI data.

If the CPI is lower than expected, it would be conducive to rate cuts. But that does not mean there will be a reversal; the weekly level still shows a bearish trend.

After more than 10 years of reckless money printing, the Federal Reserve has fallen into an inextricable deadlock: cutting rates will trigger rampant inflation, while maintaining high interest rates may lead to a deflationary collapse.

Previously, we mentioned that Trump needs to prepare for the midterm elections in November next year, so he will find ways to lower prices and interest rates; this is an inevitable trend.

In addition, the turnover of BTC by ancient whales and institutions has approached 70%.

From a long-term perspective, this price of BTC is still appropriate. In a volatile market, buy on dips rather than on rises, and regular dollar-cost averaging is fine.

Today, Stable, MON, Bera, and these altcoins all fell sharply; the narrative of public chains can no longer be sustained. The competition is too fierce, with hundreds of public chains that don't even have 100 users. The world doesn't need so many public chains; having ETH, BNB, and SOL is enough, so most altcoins are trending towards zero.

It is recommended to primarily hold BTC, avoid letting panic emotions affect bottom selling, and keep some bullets to buy the dip when a black swan event occurs. The time of maximum market panic is the best entry point.

This analysis is for friendly reference only. Adults must be responsible for their own decisions. Investment carries risks; please do not act impulsively, and think independently!