是静待花开

Recently, this market trend indeed shows signs of a major cycle starting. The interest rate cut measure has been repeatedly verified by history, and each time it brings opportunities for revaluation in the capital market.

After the announcement of the Federal Reserve's results, the market trend is basically in line with our previous internal discussions. In our community, whether in contracts or spot trading, the overall returns have been quite considerable this month, and it's not an exaggeration to say it has multiplied several times. While I can't be complacent about the win rate, at least we have maintained stability in logic and rhythm.

To be honest: how much one can earn largely depends on who you communicate with regularly and whose thinking you follow. If you are always mingling in emotional groups or signal groups, it is hard to truly grasp the benefits of the era.
The community I am currently in has been quite accurate in its judgments at several key points previously:
When the inscriptions just started to rise in 2023, we immediately focused on ORDI;
During the downturn of the secondary market in 2024, we instead captured BOME on-chain;
In April this year, we reminded everyone to gradually dollar-cost average into BTC, BNB, SOL, and ETH; including MYX, which was highly regarded during the airdrop phase, and the subsequent trend has also been as everyone has seen.

2025.12.18 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. Some brothers asked why it went up yesterday and then fell down again. In fact, the analysis yesterday already concluded: the closer we get to the release of the CPI data and the interest rate hike in Japan, the more the market panic will amplify.

It may drop below $85000. The CPI will be released tonight at 21:30, and after the Bank of Japan announces the interest rate hike tomorrow, the short-term situation may not improve much, it depends on the CPI data.

If the CPI is lower than expected, it would be conducive to rate cuts. But that does not mean there will be a reversal; the weekly level still shows a bearish trend.

After more than 10 years of reckless money printing, the Federal Reserve has fallen into an inextricable deadlock: cutting rates will trigger rampant inflation, while maintaining high interest rates may lead to a deflationary collapse.

Previously, we mentioned that Trump needs to prepare for the midterm elections in November next year, so he will find ways to lower prices and interest rates; this is an inevitable trend.

In addition, the turnover of BTC by ancient whales and institutions has approached 70%.

From a long-term perspective, this price of BTC is still appropriate. In a volatile market, buy on dips rather than on rises, and regular dollar-cost averaging is fine.

Today, Stable, MON, Bera, and these altcoins all fell sharply; the narrative of public chains can no longer be sustained. The competition is too fierce, with hundreds of public chains that don't even have 100 users. The world doesn't need so many public chains; having ETH, BNB, and SOL is enough, so most altcoins are trending towards zero.

It is recommended to primarily hold BTC, avoid letting panic emotions affect bottom selling, and keep some bullets to buy the dip when a black swan event occurs. The time of maximum market panic is the best entry point.

This analysis is for friendly reference only. Adults must be responsible for their own decisions. Investment carries risks; please do not act impulsively, and think independently!

BTC Settlement Data Update:

At this stage, market sentiment is almost extremely fearful, coupled with the approaching interest rate hike in Japan, leading to a wave of sell-offs by major institutions!

Looking at the settlement data map, the liquidity below is no longer abundant, while conversely, the liquidity above is sufficient and shining brightly!

So, if you were a market maker, how would you choose?

BTC can only hope that Bitcoin's future can follow the second scenario. I still have an obsession with $98,000; I just need to be more careful and cautious in my operations. I will only consider re-entering when the daily line recovers to $88,000 or tests $84,000 to stabilize.

The big pancake has been doing quite well these past two days!

On Monday, short positions at 898, with a take-profit target around 85288, achieved over 4000 points.
On Tuesday, I reminded to go long near 858, and also reminded to take half profit near 88k, perfectly reached, again achieving over 2000 points.

Currently still holding some long positions in the big pancake, let's see the pattern, and there are also long positions in sol that are in profit! Comfortable......

BTC
The fear index has dropped to 10, and it will soon be in single digits!

Many people are watching for it to drop to a starting point of 7, so how will it go from here?

Alright, the buddy big cut has truly run out this time, not a drop is left.

The total profit and loss at this address has once again set a new low, from a peak profit of $45 million on September 18, 2025, to a current loss of $21 million, in just 3 months a loss of $66 million, even if the previous NFT cuts were plentiful, it should be finished now.

As long as the bulls don't die, the bears won't stop. When will the buddy big cut reverse and short, that might really be the end.

mstr today's closing market value is 46.5 billion USD
holding 671268 BTC with a market value of about 58 billion USD
mstr currently has 8.2 billion USD in bonds
7.6 billion USD in preferred stock

Calculated, mstr's premium has nearly completely disappeared
which means that if you buy mstr at 86000u now
it is roughly equivalent to buying 1 BTC
but due to mstr's own debt impact
mstr's volatility is about 2-3 times that of BTC

Conclusion: buying BTC is not as good as buying mstr
BTC at a 10% discount and then volatility x2

What kind of chain reaction will occur in the cryptocurrency market if Japan raises interest rates?

The ultra-low interest rate policy maintained by the Bank of Japan for a long time is an important source of global "cheap money". Once this policy shifts, its impact will far exceed Japan itself and become a sword for the global capital market.

Impact on the US stock market: This will directly lead to funds flowing out of the US stock market, especially for interest rate-sensitive technology growth stocks, whose discount rates in valuation models will rise significantly, facing a double blow from capital outflow.

Impact on the cryptocurrency market: The cryptocurrency market is a heavy disaster zone for high leverage. Once cheap leverage is withdrawn, the market will face de-leveraging pressure, liquidity will tighten rapidly, potentially leading to severe price fluctuations or even crashes.

An interest rate hike in Japan usually drives the yen to appreciate, creating a "seesaw" effect with the dollar. In the short term, the dollar may weaken relative to the yen, potentially driving up the prices of cryptocurrencies priced in dollars. However, this is more like "good news turning into bad news"; if the market shifts to a risk-off mode because of this, then a weaker dollar may actually become a reason for selling.

In the face of macro liquidity, cryptocurrencies are not a "decentralized safe haven"; like US stocks, they are also (high-risk) assets.

When the Bank of Japan signals an interest rate hike, rather than closely monitoring the yen exchange rate, it is better to closely observe the scale of JPY arbitrage trade unwinding and changes in US Treasury yields, as these are more reliable indicators of market direction.

Recently, not much has been happening on-chain, just watching
The bottom player is using addresses certified by other KOLs for bundling
I don't really understand what it means

The difficulty of playing on BSC now
Is comparable to the difficulty of taking a civil service exam
But there will always be people making money
Smart people give money to smart people

Not familiar with Sol
I only go when I see CA
Buying is not an option, not buying is not an option
Feeling uncomfortable all over
So I simply don't want to look anymore

There's not much to play on the secondary market either
The overall market has been stagnant here for a long time
And it seems to be getting lower as it grinds
Spot trading hasn't moved
Looking for some that still have a bit of heat and seem to have manipulators doing short positions

Powell has 6 months left before resigning. Currently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant has expressed his unwillingness to take on the role, and it is highly likely that Hassett will take over. Hassett supports cryptocurrency and has publicly backed interest rate cuts. He has stated multiple times that economic data supports further rate cuts, indicating he is aligned with Trump. Therefore, in the second half of next year, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates.

2019 Christmas, Bitcoin fell
2020 Christmas, Bitcoin rose
2021 Christmas, Bitcoin fell
2022 Christmas, Bitcoin fell
2023 Christmas, Bitcoin rose
2024 Christmas, Bitcoin rose
2025 Christmas, Bitcoin__

Embrace the community, return to the community

BSC can now earn rewards through hard work!

$DORO is an example; buy in on time, join the construction, and easily obtain several times the return!

From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin's current trend is very similar to that of late January 2022.
1. Both are double top patterns.
2. The candlesticks have both broken through the bull-bear boundary MA60, remaining in a suspended state between MA120 and MA60.
3. The MACD indicator has both fallen below the zero line.

Therefore, in the coming month, BTC will continue to experience a volatile market, with a fluctuation range of 80000—100000. If it can hold the previous low of 80000 during a second dip in the next week or two, it will repeatedly attempt to break through the 100000 mark.

The ancient whale mentioned earlier, who has over 80,000 BTC and is gradually exchanging BTC for ETH, is now holding 120,000 Ethereum contracts, with a position value of 380 million;

This whale also has a pretty impressive operation as it took advantage of the drop on October 11, which has led to rumors that this whale has insider information or is the main force controlling the market;

However, based on past experiences, players holding such large positions typically do not end up making profits easily. For example, the previous insider who was very successful many times ended up getting liquidated. Unlike the high leverage of that insider, this ancient whale's leverage is not that high, as it chooses to gradually increase its position. Let's keep an eye on it;

A key week, summary of news over the past 48 hours;

http://1.CZ (the most optimistic faction): Throws out the theory of a 'super cycle', believing that the four-year cycle may end, and the future will enter a longer upward trajectory.

2. The White House (policy variable): Previews unreliable speech that will 'benefit the economy', interpreted by the market as a possible signal to release friendly risk assets.

3. Standard Chartered Bank (reality adjustment faction): Cuts BTC's target price for next year from 200,000 to 100,000; long-term target remains 500,000 but postponed to 2030. The reason is simple. Institutional demand is lower than expected, and ETF inflows are slowing.

In summary, the current state of Bitcoin: Some say 'this time is different', while others silently lower their expectations; the market is brewing a change amid divergence.

Several signals that can be confirmed at present:

Funds have not exited the market, just prefer to ambush altcoins.

On-chain activity has slightly warmed up, indicating that someone is quietly positioning.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is highly concentrated this Wednesday (Powell's speech).

Sentiment is at a low but has not worsened; it is a quiet accumulation period.

The direction choice of the market this week is not in the candlestick chart but in Powell's hands. If Powell strongly pushes for interest rate cuts, the market may instantly shift from 'holding back' to 'explosion mode', creating a resonance between sentiment and funds.

If there is significant internal resistance and no movement, the short-term will continue to oscillate sideways, using time to exchange for space. But regardless of the outcome, this week is an important node in the second half of the year's market, marking a typical moment where 'emotion is more critical than data'.

Do you think Powell will be hawkish or dovish this time? Feel free to discuss your judgment in the comments.

The reasons behind various companies promoting public ICOs. The chairman of the SEC stated that most public offerings in the crypto space should not be regarded as securities.

Last month, the SEC introduced a token classification system, categorizing network tokens, digital collectibles, and digital tools as non-securities, only securitized tokens are subject to SEC regulation.

Last night, when asked about this issue, the old man clearly stated that he would not care about most ICOs.

The matter of 'Blue War' serves as a reminder to everyone: when going out, be sure to be low-key, cautious, and prudent.

If you expose your whereabouts throughout, someone will keep an eye on you. No matter how low the probability, once it falls on an individual, it is a hundred percent disaster.
In the cryptocurrency circle, this risk is even greater.

In October this year, Roman Novak, a cryptocurrency practitioner known for his extravagant lifestyle, and his wife Anna, were tortured and killed in Dubai by kidnappers after defrauding investors of about 500 million dollars through a false project.
In June this year, a cryptocurrency trader/KOL was kidnapped in France, which also attracted CZ's attention, reminding everyone to pay attention to personal safety and not to casually disclose whereabouts.

It might be okay domestically, but once going abroad, unfamiliarity increases risk exponentially. I was once advised: when going abroad, it’s best to change your watch to keep a low profile, and not to become an 'easily obtainable fruit'.

Assets in the cryptocurrency circle are easy to trace; the higher the wealth and exposure, the closer the danger.
When going abroad, do not announce where you are on social media at that moment, create a time difference; join some activity groups in advance, travel with familiar people, preferably not act alone, and try to avoid meeting strangers; when encountering strangers at events, especially without a middleman introduction, don’t foolishly say everything.

Most importantly: boast less, those who seek easy money are easier to be targeted, genuinely share your experiences of losing money, and ensure safety.

Looking back now, on the 21st, it was indeed the lowest point for $BTC recently.
Hopefully the market this month will be as predicted by Teacher Banmu Xia.

A bit more increase, so we can have a good year.