ETH 4-hour bearish trend looms, 2865 becomes the critical line of life and death, rebound or continued decline?

ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend on the 4-hour cycle, with prices breaking below all moving averages, the Bollinger Bands opening downwards, and the moving average system showing a bearish arrangement, all of which are obvious bearish signals. However, several short-term indicators show that there is a demand for a short-term rebound in the market, with MACD green bars shortening and RSI entering the oversold zone, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening, and market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. Historically, this situation usually leads to a technical rebound.

The current core decision point is the price testing the EMA7 moving average at 2865. If the price can successfully break through and stabilize at 2865, a technical rebound may occur, with the first target in the 2900 - 2920 range, which is a psychological barrier and a previous low, and also a point for reducing positions; core resistance is in the 2950 - 2970 range, if there is resistance here, the rebound is considered weak, and the trend remains bearish. If the price fails to break through or is unable to touch 2865, it will continue to explore the bottom, with the primary support at the lower Bollinger Band at 2769. Once this is broken, it will open up more downward space.

For different types of investors, strategies vary. Holders should not panic and cut losses; they can patiently wait for a rebound, reduce positions when the rebound is weak, and wait for clear signals before adding positions; short-term traders face high risks for bullish opportunities and need to set strict stop-losses, while bearish opportunities align better with the trend, and they may short when stagnation signals appear in strong resistance areas; observers are best to remain patient, staying on the sidelines, and act only when the market gives a clear trend reversal signal.

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