① One-sentence Conclusion
This is not a trend reversal; it is the 'liquidation + accumulation composite structure' at the end of the decline. The current core goal of the main force is: to squeeze one more time below 2800 → complete the position → return to the 2950–3050 range. The probability of a direct V reversal is low, but the probability of 'breaking down - quickly pulling back' is very high. In simple terms: it is currently testing your last bit of patience, not aiming to break through all the way down.
② First Layer | Direction & Market Status (Status Model)
Market Status: Pre-launch · End of Downtrend
Structure: 4H continuous decline, but the rate of decrease is slowing, and the K-line bodies are significantly shortened.
Liquidation pool (1D / 1W): Below 2780–2750 is this round's largest long liquidation pool (Grade A), above 3000–3200 liquidation continues to thicken.
OI: Still in a high position oscillation zone, no panic collapse.
Capital flow: Contracts 30m–1H continuously flowing out, but signals of slowing outflow appeared above 8H.
Order book: Near 2800 multi-platform real buy wall, above 3000–3050 sell wall dense, typical 'first kill down then pull up'.
OBV / MAOBV: OBV is still below MAOBV, only probing positions are allowed, heavy positions are not allowed.
Large transactions: 2800–2850 area has frequently appeared with price absorption large orders.
Meta-8 model: Violent liquidation (Flash Sweep) → switching before sideways absorption.
③ Second layer | Main route judgment (three fixed routes)
Main line A (≈65%): 2800–2750 sweeping liquidation → quickly pull back above 2900 → 2950–3050 oscillation repair. Confirmation point: After breaking below 2800 on 4H, no continuous volume increase occurs, 30m/1H shows long lower shadow and OI no longer declines. Deviation point: Continuous 4H entity volume increases after breaking below 2750. Switching point: Effectively lost 2700 (closing price).
Secondary line B (≈25%): 2790–2800 false break not deep insertion → direct pullback to 2950. Confirmation point: 2800 continuous two 4H do not break, buy wall continues to add orders for ≥30 minutes. Deviation point: Buy wall quickly withdraws and is accompanied by active selling expansion. Switching point: Break below 2780.
Danger line C (≈10%): Break below 2700 → points to 2620–2550. Trigger condition: BTC synchronously loses key structure, contract funds continuously accelerate outflow at the 4H level. Current data does not support, only for risk control planning.
④ Key price level map
Below the main force must hit area: 2880–2850 (previous high transaction dense area, pullback type, cannot form a pattern); 2800–2780 (liquidation + buy wall + large order absorption, probing position first choice); 2750–2720 (1D+1W liquidation overlap, extreme insertion heavy position area); 2700 (structural life and death line).
Upper pull target: 2950–3000 (first repair position); 3050–3100 (trend confirmation position); 3200+ (next round of short squeeze area, not the current stage).
⑤ Bidirectional point system (all executable)
Long position system:
Long A | Testing type: Entry 2800–2780; risk point 2750; invalidation point 2700; limit position 2720; target 2920–3000; nature: cannot form a pattern.
Long B | Extreme reversal (big meat · PDM Pre): Entry 2750–2720; risk point 2680; invalidation point 2620; limit position 2550; target 3000 → 3150; nature: structural level, can take big meat.
Short position system (only short-term):
Empty A | Pullback short: Entry 2980–3020; premise pullback without volume; risk point 3060; invalidation point 3100; target 2850; nature: short, cannot hold.
Empty B | Break position chasing short: Only valid after breaking below 2700, not recommended to participate in advance.
⑥ Main rhythm judgment
Current rhythm: Testing → shaking before liquidation. Has not yet entered the launch phase, but is already cleaning positions for the launch.
⑦ Today's optimal execution strategy
No position: 2800–2780 small position, 2750–2720 is the main meat area. Don't chase long, don't gamble on reversals, wait for the pin to send money, instead of chasing to send money.
⑧ Risk reminder
Step one still has deeper insertion risk; full positions are strictly prohibited before the 4H trend reversal signal appears; only probing positions are allowed before OBV crosses MAOBV.
⑨ Plain language summary
Now it feels more like the main force is sharpening knives, not completed. The really comfortable, highest odds order is still waiting for you around 2750.
