老白有纪律
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If a decline in the market is really going to happen,
it won't stay sideways with you here for so long.
This kind of trend now,
is only suitable for one thing: collecting.
#BTC
it won't stay sideways with you here for so long.
This kind of trend now,
is only suitable for one thing: collecting.
#BTC
See original
People who short below 88000 will eventually be carried away.
Below are the main costs
Above are all fat shorts
Which side are you on? $BTC
Below are the main costs
Above are all fat shorts
Which side are you on? $BTC
See original
BTC I am no longer empty.
86000 There are clearly people collecting in this range.
If it were to drop, it would have broken through long ago.
👉 A drop is a wash, a rise is the real market $BTC
86000 There are clearly people collecting in this range.
If it were to drop, it would have broken through long ago.
👉 A drop is a wash, a rise is the real market $BTC
See original
ETH 12/18 How to Enter Today
① One-sentence Conclusion
This is not a trend reversal; it is the 'liquidation + accumulation composite structure' at the end of the decline. The current core goal of the main force is: to squeeze one more time below 2800 → complete the position → return to the 2950–3050 range. The probability of a direct V reversal is low, but the probability of 'breaking down - quickly pulling back' is very high. In simple terms: it is currently testing your last bit of patience, not aiming to break through all the way down.
② First Layer | Direction & Market Status (Status Model)
Market Status: Pre-launch · End of Downtrend
Structure: 4H continuous decline, but the rate of decrease is slowing, and the K-line bodies are significantly shortened.
This is not a trend reversal; it is the 'liquidation + accumulation composite structure' at the end of the decline. The current core goal of the main force is: to squeeze one more time below 2800 → complete the position → return to the 2950–3050 range. The probability of a direct V reversal is low, but the probability of 'breaking down - quickly pulling back' is very high. In simple terms: it is currently testing your last bit of patience, not aiming to break through all the way down.
② First Layer | Direction & Market Status (Status Model)
Market Status: Pre-launch · End of Downtrend
Structure: 4H continuous decline, but the rate of decrease is slowing, and the K-line bodies are significantly shortened.
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BTC 12/18 Today's Analysis Not Based on Feelings, But on a Strong Training Model
I.① News · Macroeconomic and Sudden Events (Hard Module)
Conclusion: 🟢 Noise Level (Does Not Alter Main Route)
No Sudden Policy/Regulatory Black Swan
No Hard Trigger Events from the Federal Reserve
Current Market Conditions Fully Driven by Capital and Liquidation Structure
👉 Conclusion: The news does not constitute conditions for route switching; everything is based on data.
II.② First Layer | Direction & Market State (State Model)
Market State Determination
Before Launch · End of Downtrend (Bullish Bias)
8-Dimensional Resonance Evidence
Structure: 4H After a Major Drop Entering Converging Volatility, Low Points No Longer Amplified
Liquidation Pool (1D/1W):
Conclusion: 🟢 Noise Level (Does Not Alter Main Route)
No Sudden Policy/Regulatory Black Swan
No Hard Trigger Events from the Federal Reserve
Current Market Conditions Fully Driven by Capital and Liquidation Structure
👉 Conclusion: The news does not constitute conditions for route switching; everything is based on data.
II.② First Layer | Direction & Market State (State Model)
Market State Determination
Before Launch · End of Downtrend (Bullish Bias)
8-Dimensional Resonance Evidence
Structure: 4H After a Major Drop Entering Converging Volatility, Low Points No Longer Amplified
Liquidation Pool (1D/1W):
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ZEC 12/18 today get on board and enjoy
First layer | Direction & Market status (status model)
Direction judgment: slightly bullish (not strongly bullish)
Market status: before launch → probing launch
Core conclusion in one sentence:
👉 ZEC has completed the main liquidation below, it is currently not the end of the rebound, but the 'preparation phase for upward liquidation'.
Key evidence (only keep valid ones):
Lower range 372–365 (1D+1W Grade A liquidation pool) has been completed
Current price can stabilize above 390, no panic on retracement
OI is high and flat, no collapse (indicating no retreat)
Net inflow of funds in high cycle during the contract, spot outflow = wash筹
Direction judgment: slightly bullish (not strongly bullish)
Market status: before launch → probing launch
Core conclusion in one sentence:
👉 ZEC has completed the main liquidation below, it is currently not the end of the rebound, but the 'preparation phase for upward liquidation'.
Key evidence (only keep valid ones):
Lower range 372–365 (1D+1W Grade A liquidation pool) has been completed
Current price can stabilize above 390, no panic on retracement
OI is high and flat, no collapse (indicating no retreat)
Net inflow of funds in high cycle during the contract, spot outflow = wash筹
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ETH Today's Review
📌 ETH Market Review｜It's not about guessing, it's about the route being taken
Conclusion first:
This is not 'luck catching a rebound', but an alternative route B being fully executed.
1. What was the judgment given at that time?
During the long-term sideways stage at ETH 2920–2950, three routes were clearly given:
Main line A (~65%)
Sideways accumulation → Patience耗 → Upward breakthrough
Alternative route B (~25%)
Reinsert once (2850–2880) → Immediately rise
Dangerous route C (@10%)
Effectively broke below 2850 and increased volume (was not satisfied at that time)
The key sentence was made clear at that time:
Conclusion first:
This is not 'luck catching a rebound', but an alternative route B being fully executed.
1. What was the judgment given at that time?
During the long-term sideways stage at ETH 2920–2950, three routes were clearly given:
Main line A (~65%)
Sideways accumulation → Patience耗 → Upward breakthrough
Alternative route B (~25%)
Reinsert once (2850–2880) → Immediately rise
Dangerous route C (@10%)
Effectively broke below 2850 and increased volume (was not satisfied at that time)
The key sentence was made clear at that time:
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ETH has been consolidating since yesterday afternoon. Is something big coming?
Three-layer structure explained:
First layer | Direction & Market status
Conclusion in one sentence: It’s not that we can’t move, it’s that we are 'deliberately not moving'.
Current state assessment
End of oscillation accumulation · Direction not chosen, but 'upward probability is significantly greater than downward'
Why do you say that?
Key evidence:
✅ Price consolidation > 24 hours, but no significant drop
✅ 2870 has already been tested once, no trend destruction occurred
✅ OI has not continued to decline (no panic liquidations occurred)
✅ Liquidation map: Significant reduction in liquidation density below, extremely rich above 3000–3200
👉 If we are to move in a 'downward trend', this current performance is completely unqualified.
First layer | Direction & Market status
Conclusion in one sentence: It’s not that we can’t move, it’s that we are 'deliberately not moving'.
Current state assessment
End of oscillation accumulation · Direction not chosen, but 'upward probability is significantly greater than downward'
Why do you say that?
Key evidence:
✅ Price consolidation > 24 hours, but no significant drop
✅ 2870 has already been tested once, no trend destruction occurred
✅ OI has not continued to decline (no panic liquidations occurred)
✅ Liquidation map: Significant reduction in liquidation density below, extremely rich above 3000–3200
👉 If we are to move in a 'downward trend', this current performance is completely unqualified.
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Let's talk about how to operate ZEC today. All analysis comes from data volume analysis and main force intention.
⭐️ Long②｜Main force level profit (maximum probability)
This is the most worthwhile point to wait for today
Entry area: 372–360
Position: 30%–40%
Risk point: 352
Invalidation point: 345
Extreme level: 330
Target:
First section: 410–420
Second section: 445
Third section: 480
Expected range: +15% ～ +30%
Nature: Structural level ✅ Can take large profit
👉 This is the main force spot + order book + clearing triple resonance area
🧨 Long③｜Extreme reversal (small probability, large profit bottom)
Only execute when panic spike appears
Entry area: 350–330
Position: ≤20%
Risk point: 320
Invalidation point: 310
Target: 380 → 420
This is the most worthwhile point to wait for today
Entry area: 372–360
Position: 30%–40%
Risk point: 352
Invalidation point: 345
Extreme level: 330
Target:
First section: 410–420
Second section: 445
Third section: 480
Expected range: +15% ～ +30%
Nature: Structural level ✅ Can take large profit
👉 This is the main force spot + order book + clearing triple resonance area
🧨 Long③｜Extreme reversal (small probability, large profit bottom)
Only execute when panic spike appears
Entry area: 350–330
Position: ≤20%
Risk point: 320
Invalidation point: 310
Target: 380 → 420
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Today's latest ETH data analysis
Currently still following yesterday's route
Route conclusion: Main line A [Oscillation absorption → Upper clearance pull-up] remains unchanged, currently in the last accumulation phase before confirmation.
Clearing structure: Changes are very critical (bullish)
Below has already become 'not tasty', above has started to become 'fat'
2900 is already the 'cost zone that the main force is willing to defend'
Washing leverage, not retreating large funds
This matches the historical pattern of 'about to pull up a segment'.
Current status of the three routes
🔵 Main line A (65% → 70%) [Maintain]
Oscillation absorption → Upper clearance pull-up
Condition: Basically met
Route conclusion: Main line A [Oscillation absorption → Upper clearance pull-up] remains unchanged, currently in the last accumulation phase before confirmation.
Clearing structure: Changes are very critical (bullish)
Below has already become 'not tasty', above has started to become 'fat'
2900 is already the 'cost zone that the main force is willing to defend'
Washing leverage, not retreating large funds
This matches the historical pattern of 'about to pull up a segment'.
Current status of the three routes
🔵 Main line A (65% → 70%) [Maintain]
Oscillation absorption → Upper clearance pull-up
Condition: Basically met
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2025 12/16 22:16 ETH Current Market
Explain the follow-up:
Where is the most meat: The real big meat is not at 2950–3000, but at:
3050 Start from above
3100–3200 is the most liquid segment
👉 What is stacked above?
Missing out long
Stuck short
Replenish short
Reverse chase long
That's what the main force really wants to eat—'a whole piece of meat.'
Is the main force pulling now? Basically not:
The bulls have already started getting on board (you are one of them 😄)
If pulled directly, the main force's cost is high
What the main force wants is:
Wash again
Shake off the indecisive bulls
Pull again, let you 'not catch up'
👉 So the most profitable path must be:
Where is the most meat: The real big meat is not at 2950–3000, but at:
3050 Start from above
3100–3200 is the most liquid segment
👉 What is stacked above?
Missing out long
Stuck short
Replenish short
Reverse chase long
That's what the main force really wants to eat—'a whole piece of meat.'
Is the main force pulling now? Basically not:
The bulls have already started getting on board (you are one of them 😄)
If pulled directly, the main force's cost is high
What the main force wants is:
Wash again
Shake off the indecisive bulls
Pull again, let you 'not catch up'
👉 So the most profitable path must be:
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ETH Today's Market Data 2025-12-16 11:42:14
2025-12-16 11:42:14
1️⃣ Below (Bullish golden zone)
First receiving area: 2920–2900
Extreme pinning zone: 2880–2850
Structural failure: below 2800
👉 This is not a whim; it is 1D+1W clearing intensive + large transactions + overlapping areas in the order book
2️⃣ Above (Rebound resistance zone)
3000–3020 (first resistance)
3080–3120 (strong resistance & short covering area)
Trends reversal can only be discussed above 3200
Retail investors are still afraid, while the main force has already started to slowly accumulate.
▶️ Main line A (55%｜Maintain)
Consolidation bottoming → Slowly repairing → Choosing direction again
Confirmation point:
1️⃣ Below (Bullish golden zone)
First receiving area: 2920–2900
Extreme pinning zone: 2880–2850
Structural failure: below 2800
👉 This is not a whim; it is 1D+1W clearing intensive + large transactions + overlapping areas in the order book
2️⃣ Above (Rebound resistance zone)
3000–3020 (first resistance)
3080–3120 (strong resistance & short covering area)
Trends reversal can only be discussed above 3200
Retail investors are still afraid, while the main force has already started to slowly accumulate.
▶️ Main line A (55%｜Maintain)
Consolidation bottoming → Slowly repairing → Choosing direction again
Confirmation point:
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BTC Today's Market Data
2025-12-16 11:50:18
Current status: Starting → Not yet completed liquidation
Price: After a sharp drop, holding between 85500–85800
OI: Continued decline (Longs being liquidated, not new longs entering)
OBV: Green line significantly crossing below MAOBV → Momentum not restored
Capital flow:
Spot: Slight inflow (bottom fishing)
Contract: Continued net outflow (de-leveraging)
👉 Conclusion in one sentence:
This is the phase of 'de-leveraging pressure + spot accumulation', not a confirmation of a pump.
Current dominant mode: ⑧ Violent liquidation (Flash Sweep) → Transitioning to ③ Range accumulation
Non-trend upward
Non-short squeeze
Current status: Starting → Not yet completed liquidation
Price: After a sharp drop, holding between 85500–85800
OI: Continued decline (Longs being liquidated, not new longs entering)
OBV: Green line significantly crossing below MAOBV → Momentum not restored
Capital flow:
Spot: Slight inflow (bottom fishing)
Contract: Continued net outflow (de-leveraging)
👉 Conclusion in one sentence:
This is the phase of 'de-leveraging pressure + spot accumulation', not a confirmation of a pump.
Current dominant mode: ⑧ Violent liquidation (Flash Sweep) → Transitioning to ③ Range accumulation
Non-trend upward
Non-short squeeze
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ETH Data Analysis
The true intention of the main force — consolidating positions horizontally + waiting for conditions to break upward
👉 Therefore, the most comfortable way for the main force is:
Maintain the horizontal consolidation of 3035–3050 → Wait until the shorts are accumulated enough to push up.
Don't want it to drop, don't want it to rise, just want to absorb your chips horizontally at 3035–3050.
Cannot drop → Downward attack is meaningless;
Cannot push up → Too many shorts above.
Once the horizontal movement is enough, and the strength is accumulated → The next stop is to go to 3090 to short.
The most stable current order is:
3030–3035 (Light position)
2978–2990 (Heavy position, where to eat big meat)
✅ (A) Participate in light long positions intraday: 3030–3035
👉 Therefore, the most comfortable way for the main force is:
Maintain the horizontal consolidation of 3035–3050 → Wait until the shorts are accumulated enough to push up.
Don't want it to drop, don't want it to rise, just want to absorb your chips horizontally at 3035–3050.
Cannot drop → Downward attack is meaningless;
Cannot push up → Too many shorts above.
Once the horizontal movement is enough, and the strength is accumulated → The next stop is to go to 3090 to short.
The most stable current order is:
3030–3035 (Light position)
2978–2990 (Heavy position, where to eat big meat)
✅ (A) Participate in light long positions intraday: 3030–3035
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SOL Today's Data Analysis
Big Trend: Downward Tail End → Accumulation Sideways → Waiting for Rebound (Slightly Up)
Current Main Force Operation Mode: Sideways Accumulation + False Weak Wash
Final Conclusion: Main Force is in Control, Not Fleeing.
Main Line A (70% Probability)
132–130 Collecting Chips → Rebound Towards 136–138**
● Confirmation Point
Price Breakthrough 134.2
OBV Does Not Break Low and Trends Up
Delta Shows Continuous Active Buying
● Divergence Point
Breaks Down 131.80 (VWAP Lower Edge + σ1 Lower Bound)
● Switching Point
129.80 Breaks Down and Increases Volume
Sub Line B (25% Probability)
131.8–134 Range Sideways Waiting for Choice
● Formation Conditions
BTC Synchronizes Sideways
Current Main Force Operation Mode: Sideways Accumulation + False Weak Wash
Final Conclusion: Main Force is in Control, Not Fleeing.
Main Line A (70% Probability)
132–130 Collecting Chips → Rebound Towards 136–138**
● Confirmation Point
Price Breakthrough 134.2
OBV Does Not Break Low and Trends Up
Delta Shows Continuous Active Buying
● Divergence Point
Breaks Down 131.80 (VWAP Lower Edge + σ1 Lower Bound)
● Switching Point
129.80 Breaks Down and Increases Volume
Sub Line B (25% Probability)
131.8–134 Range Sideways Waiting for Choice
● Formation Conditions
BTC Synchronizes Sideways
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BTC Today's Data Analysis
It is currently a consolidation after a decline, the main force seems to be preparing for 'another stab at the bulls', with a downward bias → then a rebound.
Core Idea: Do not short, do not mess around in the range of 89k, wait for the bottom pin to eat the meat, and look for shorts again after the rebound above.
Route A (Main Line, ≈55%): First down then up
Route A (Main Line, ≈55%): First down then up
First drop to 88.x, even stepping down to 86k or even lower to liquidate the bulls → then rebound to sweep the 90k shorts.
Switching / Failure:
If the price does not fall below 89,200, but instead stands back above 89,800, and the 1H continuously closes above the VWAP, while CVD/OBV is clearly rising, it indicates insufficient willingness to drop → shift from A to B or C.
Core Idea: Do not short, do not mess around in the range of 89k, wait for the bottom pin to eat the meat, and look for shorts again after the rebound above.
Route A (Main Line, ≈55%): First down then up
Route A (Main Line, ≈55%): First down then up
First drop to 88.x, even stepping down to 86k or even lower to liquidate the bulls → then rebound to sweep the 90k shorts.
Switching / Failure:
If the price does not fall below 89,200, but instead stands back above 89,800, and the 1H continuously closes above the VWAP, while CVD/OBV is clearly rising, it indicates insufficient willingness to drop → shift from A to B or C.
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ETH Latest Complete Main Intent Analysis
ETH Latest Complete Main Intent Analysis:
① K-line structure (most critical) 👉 Structural conclusion: this is the main force performing a 'continuation short squeeze', not a top shorting structure.
② Aggressive Big Orders: 👉 This is the core feature of a short squeeze structure (strong push, extremely unbalanced long and short positions).
The main force this time is targeting the liquidation of shorts → 'Short Squeeze Route A' continues to execute.
And you notice:
When repeatedly hitting 3225+, the sell wall did not actively withdraw orders (= the main force did not let the price go down).
👉 Conclusion: Order book confirmation: the main force is unwilling to give shorts a pullback, only wanting to block shorts above.
① K-line structure (most critical) 👉 Structural conclusion: this is the main force performing a 'continuation short squeeze', not a top shorting structure.
② Aggressive Big Orders: 👉 This is the core feature of a short squeeze structure (strong push, extremely unbalanced long and short positions).
The main force this time is targeting the liquidation of shorts → 'Short Squeeze Route A' continues to execute.
And you notice:
When repeatedly hitting 3225+, the sell wall did not actively withdraw orders (= the main force did not let the price go down).
👉 Conclusion: Order book confirmation: the main force is unwilling to give shorts a pullback, only wanting to block shorts above.
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ETH Main Force Intention Data Analysis
Update: → The main route hasn't changed, and is still following your previous 'main force inducing long positions to absorb liquidity → no breaking the neckline → second kill' route.
However: they don't intend to crash the market immediately, but are in a sideways harvesting zone of 'not able to push up + not in a hurry to crash'.
**Current main route: Route B (inducing long positions → washing liquidity → then killing)
In summary:
The main force now wants you to think there will be a reversal, but in reality, they are just absorbing enough long positions before smashing it back down.
Short position (high probability)
**[High probability short position: 3098–3122]
(This is the one you should hang the most)
However: they don't intend to crash the market immediately, but are in a sideways harvesting zone of 'not able to push up + not in a hurry to crash'.
**Current main route: Route B (inducing long positions → washing liquidity → then killing)
In summary:
The main force now wants you to think there will be a reversal, but in reality, they are just absorbing enough long positions before smashing it back down.
Short position (high probability)
**[High probability short position: 3098–3122]
(This is the one you should hang the most)
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SOL Main Force Trading Analysis December 2
🟩 Main line A: Retracement shorting route (75%) ← Today's strongest probability
Target order:
128.5–129 (First rebound level)
131–134 (Mid-level bear stop-loss area)
136 (Retracement endpoint)
140–144 (Ultimate inducement area)
Confirmation point:
Stand firm 126.5
CVD continues to rise
Buy wall continues to support
OBV does not break bottom
Deviation point:
Break below 125.5
Switching point:
Break below 123 (Entering dangerous route)
🟨 Sub-line B: Sideways market absorption (20%)
Range: 126–128
Main force needs to wait for BTC / ETH synchronization
Confirmation point
Repeatedly hitting 127, neither up nor down
CVD flat
Switching point
Once breaking 128.5 → Return to main line A
Target order:
128.5–129 (First rebound level)
131–134 (Mid-level bear stop-loss area)
136 (Retracement endpoint)
140–144 (Ultimate inducement area)
Confirmation point:
Stand firm 126.5
CVD continues to rise
Buy wall continues to support
OBV does not break bottom
Deviation point:
Break below 125.5
Switching point:
Break below 123 (Entering dangerous route)
🟨 Sub-line B: Sideways market absorption (20%)
Range: 126–128
Main force needs to wait for BTC / ETH synchronization
Confirmation point
Repeatedly hitting 127, neither up nor down
CVD flat
Switching point
Once breaking 128.5 → Return to main line A
See original
BTC Main Capital Operation Analysis Entry Points
Three routes (Main line / Secondary line / Danger line):
🟩 Main Line A: After the pullback 85000–84500, test upwards 87500–88500 (small squeeze)
Probability: about 55%
Logic:
The main force has real accumulation at 84k–85k;
Above the liquidation chart 86800–88500 there is a short liquidation zone, it's natural to go with the trend for a round.
Confirmation point:
Short-term pullback 85000–84500, CVD has no new low, quickly pulled back above 86000;
Buy wall always exists below the order book;
1H OBV steadily rising.
Deviation point:
Repeatedly breaking below 85000 and the rebounds are weak (every time it goes up it gets smashed back down), indicating that the main force doesn't want to defend this price.
🟩 Main Line A: After the pullback 85000–84500, test upwards 87500–88500 (small squeeze)
Probability: about 55%
Logic:
The main force has real accumulation at 84k–85k;
Above the liquidation chart 86800–88500 there is a short liquidation zone, it's natural to go with the trend for a round.
Confirmation point:
Short-term pullback 85000–84500, CVD has no new low, quickly pulled back above 86000;
Buy wall always exists below the order book;
1H OBV steadily rising.
Deviation point:
Repeatedly breaking below 85000 and the rebounds are weak (every time it goes up it gets smashed back down), indicating that the main force doesn't want to defend this price.
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