Tonight at 21:30, the last U.S. CPI data for 2025 will be released. The current market consensus forecast is 3.1% or lower. If the data meets or falls below this expectation, it could potentially become a significant catalyst for market trends.

The core logic is that if CPI ≤ 3.1%, it will confirm two key paths for the market:

1. Strengthening expectations of a policy shift: Persistently controlled inflation data will give the Federal Reserve more room to consider easing policies, significantly warming market expectations for interest rate cuts.

2. Dual benefits for risk assets: On one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts will directly lower future corporate financing costs, benefiting U.S. stock valuations (such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices). On the other hand, expectations of a shift towards easing liquidity will boost the performance of risk assets sensitive to liquidity (such as BTC and ETH).

Why is this data particularly critical?

This is not just a simple data release; it may also become a key node in shaping future policy narratives. If the data comes in low, it will reinforce the prospects of a "soft landing" while potentially being viewed at the policy level as a suitable window, providing data support for possible adjustments to the monetary environment. Overall, inflation data below expectations is likely to drive the market trading logic of "interest rate cuts" and "liquidity improvement." $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析