Bitcoin surged and then retreated, falling below the $86,000 mark: After initially breaking through $90,000 yesterday, it quickly plunged, falling 2.21% intraday, briefly touching a low of $85,261. It then fluctuated around the core support zone of $85,000-$86,000, considered the last important line of defense for the bulls. A decisive break below this level could trigger a technical sell-off.
Long-term holders' selling volume remains high, weakening market absorption capacity: Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin, dormant for over a year, has returned to circulation this year. The selling volume from long-term holders in the past 30 days has reached one of the highest levels in over five years. Meanwhile, ETF fund flows have turned to net outflows, derivatives trading volume has decreased, and retail investor participation has weakened, significantly reducing the market's ability to absorb these selling orders.
The market is at a technical turning point, with low volatility suggesting a potential breakout: The Bitcoin daily chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slight bullish divergence, suggesting that downward momentum may be weakening, but it also faces resistance from the downtrend line since the October high. The 92,000-94,000 area is a key resistance level before a trend reversal. Current low market volatility indicates a potential new directional breakout is imminent.
Institutional and investor attitudes are diverging: Standard Chartered lowered its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $100,000 due to market weakness; however, "whales" like MicroStrategy have purchased nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin for two consecutive weeks, increasing their holdings during the correction. Furthermore, many traders remain on the sidelines, with open interest in Bitcoin options and perpetual contracts far below pre-October crash levels. $BTC
