Family, let’s refill the coffee first! Tonight's candlestick chart is guaranteed to be more thrilling than the suspense drama you are chasing. On one side is the Bank of Japan holding back its "interest rate hike trump card" for several years, and on the other side is the US CPI, a "time bomb of inflation." With these two tough characters making their appearances, be careful if you don’t keep a close eye on your positions; you might wake up to a "surprise gift package" at dawn.
First, let's highlight the key points for the newbies: these past few days are not just ordinary market fluctuations, but the eve of a "great migration" of global macro funds. Yesterday's market swings were essentially institutions "warming up" in advance; the real main event is all happening tonight and tomorrow. As someone who has been watching the crypto market for 8 years, today I will explain the underlying logic clearly. If you understand it, you'll be ahead of 90% of retail investors with the "pitfall avoidance guide."
The first bomb: the US CPI data at 9:30 tonight is directly a red-green light for capital to 'point the direction.' The intricacies here are quite simple.
If the inflation data drops, just wait and see the market 'shooting up like bamboo shoots after rain.' Why? Because the market will immediately bet that the Federal Reserve will ease and cut rates in advance, and the dollar will become unloved. Those hot money lying on the dollar will rush into crypto and the stock market like crazy to find profits. At that time, whether mainstream coins or logical altcoins, everyone will be able to savor some benefits.
But if the data comes out higher than expected, then we need to hold onto our pockets tightly. Once interest rate cut expectations cool, the dollar becomes 'hot property,' and capital will crazily flee from risk assets back into the arms of the dollar. At that time, the market is likely to experience 'free fall.' Don't get overly excited and try to catch the bottom, as you may end up buying at the halfway mark.
The second bomb is even harsher: the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision results coming out tomorrow. This matter is more deeply hidden than the CPI, but its impact on the crypto circle is not small at all.
In the past decade, institutions have been playing a 'sure-win' game: borrowing almost zero-interest yen from Japan, converting it to dollars, and then buying global assets, including a large amount of crypto assets. It's like using other people's money for low-cost high returns—it's simply picking up money.
But now Japan is going to raise interest rates, and this game simply cannot continue. Once the cost of borrowing rises and the yen is likely to appreciate, if institutions don’t sell off overseas assets and convert them back to yen to repay debts, they will face huge losses. Therefore, once the interest rate hike is confirmed, you will see a large number of sell orders crashing into the market, liquidity will tighten instantly, and market fluctuations will be so drastic that it will make you question your life.
The market in the past couple of days is definitely a 'battle of gods.' The main players' line-drawing techniques will become particularly bizarre, pulling one moment and smashing the next, all to wash out retail investors. So my advice for everyone is just four words: go with the trend.
The core strategy focuses on 'high shorting.' Don't easily bet on a rebound. If you really can't help but want to try a long position, be sure to use a small position, just think of it as buying a ticket to watch a show—definitely don't hold a heavy position. Remember, at this moment, stopping losses is more important than anything else. Don’t hesitate when it’s time to cut losses; preserving your principal is crucial to make a comeback when the market turns.
Tonight I will be closely monitoring the market. As soon as the CPI data is released, I will post an interpretation in the comments section immediately, sharing the latest operational thoughts with everyone. If you think I’m being practical, please follow me @帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC .
