Recently, two news items have been misinterpreted by many when viewed separately👇
One is:
👉 The Fed releases signals for rate cuts, and liquidity begins to ease
Another piece is:
👉 The Bank of Japan discusses raising interest rates, and the market begins to panic about 'global tightening'
As a result, many people see the four words 'Japan raises interest rates' and
the first reaction is:
That's it, it's going to collapse.
But those who truly understand macro aren't looking at 'whether to raise interest rates',
but rather—where the money is going.
Let's first say the conclusion in one sentence:
there may be fluctuations in the short term, but the mid-term outlook on crypto is not pessimistic,
the real risk instead lies in emotional panic.
Why do I say this?
First, the Fed is genuinely easing here.
Whether it's the dot plot, speeches, or market pricing,
They are all leaning towards a 'rate cut cycle.'
As long as the dollar does not continue to tighten,
risk assets are unlikely to experience systemic collapse.
Second, Japan this time is more like 'expectation management.'
The market has long known it was going to move,
The moment it truly lands,
it instead becomes easier for the 'boots to land and emotions to ease.'
Many people overlook one point:
The easiest time to crash the market is always 'when there are no expectations.'
So the current market is essentially:
There are macro expectations for easing above
and policy news disturbances below
In between is the emotional tug-of-war
This is also why you will see:
It can't rise, but it also can't break down.
What we really need to be wary of is not the news itself,
but three types of people👇
1️⃣ Hearing the news and chasing up and down the market
2️⃣ Using leverage as soon as emotions fluctuate
3️⃣ Not setting stop losses and only betting on direction
The market always rewards those who are patient.
Understanding the 'capital logic' behind the news
is much more important than staring at a 5-minute K-line.
The market will not end because of one piece of news,
but it will continuously eliminate those who don't understand the logic.#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #美联储降息预期升温 $BTC $ETH $BNB
