There are many news items today, but the market is actually very honest.
On one side, the market is repeatedly interpreting:
Does the Federal Reserve's attitude count as a 'dovish turn'?
On the other side, there are discussions: Will Japan's interest rate hike trigger a global capital inflow? But what really determines the trend is not in the headline, but in the details of the market. From today's performance of BTC and ETH, there is no panic selling, nor emotional surges, but rather repeated fluctuations and converging volume—what does this indicate? It indicates that the current dominant funds are not in a hurry to place bets on direction. If Japan's interest rate hike is indeed a 'fatal bearish signal', then the market would have already dropped in advance;
Today's market can actually be understood in one sentence.
The news front is very lively:
On one side, the Federal Reserve is sending dovish signals, and the market is discussing 'when to really start easing';
On the other side, expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan are being raised repeatedly, causing many to become nervous about global capital flow. But the answer given by the market is actually quite calm. BTC and ETH did not lose control and surge or plummet due to a single piece of news; instead, they are fluctuating back and forth in a key range—what does this indicate? indicating that large funds are not in a hurry to take a position. For them, what really matters is not 'whether to cut interest rates' or 'whether to raise interest rates', but:
Recently in this market, to be honest: those who do not lose money have already outperformed half of the market.
When prices rise, you don't dare to chase,
When prices drop, you fear it will continue to crash,
In the end, it becomes—
watching the market every day, feeling anxious every day, yet the account remains still. Many people ask:
“Is it a bull market now, or is it a false signal?” Actually, it's none of those. This is a stage that specifically consumes emotions. You see the price as if it could take off at any moment,
But every time you feel impulsive, it gives you a pullback;
Just when you want to cut losses, it slowly pulls back up. It's not that the market is targeting you,
it's that the market is filtering people. The real danger is,
never a big drop,
but this kind of fluctuation that makes you act frequently.
The harshest part of the market is not the wild ups and downs, but making you 'just happen to be wrong'
The market in the past two days is actually very real. It's not that there are no opportunities, but there are no 'comfortable opportunities'. When you hesitate, it pulls up; When you chase, it goes sideways; When you leverage, it pulls back. Many people think it's just their bad luck, But the truth is: you are standing in the most easily harvested position in the market. In this kind of market, there are several characteristics that are particularly obvious: Good news comes out, but the price reacts flatly Bad news comes out, yet it doesn't drop The volatility is not small, but there is no trend continuation What does this indicate? This indicates that big funds are not here to pump the market, but to 'change hands'.
If you are trading based on news today, you have likely already lost.
Today, something very typical happened in the crypto world, but 90% of retail investors don't understand it. 👉 The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates
👉 Japan is rumored to be raising interest rates
👉 BTC and ETH are neither rising nor falling, but rather tormenting back and forth Many people are starting to feel confused: “Isn't it a rate cut? Where's the money?”
“Isn't Japan going to raise interest rates? Why hasn't it collapsed?” It's not the market that's strange; it's that you are looking at it from the wrong angle. 1. What the market fears the most right now is not bad news, but 'lack of new things'
Let me say something that hits hard:
📌 Everything you see in the news today, the major players knew about it two weeks ago
Whether it's a rate cut or Japan raising interest rates,
Today's Macroeconomic Trends × Crypto Market Observation: Federal Reserve Rate Cut + Speculations of Japan's Rate Hike, where is the market really headed?
Brothers, two recent news articles have caused some chaos in the crypto world: 📍 1. The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has been announced
The Federal Reserve has just lowered interest rates by 25 basis points again, keeping the benchmark rate in the 3.50–3.75% range. This should have signaled a loosening of funds, yet it did not directly cause BTC/ETH to surge. I will explain the reasons below. 📍 2. The market is discussing Japan's possible interest rate hike
There are voices saying that the Bank of Japan might start raising interest rates, which is extremely rare in the past 30 years. Many people panicked upon hearing this, thinking that a global financial earthquake was imminent — but in reality, I believe this is more about expectation management rather than a sudden tightening of liquidity.
"Japan interest rate hike"??? This time it is likely just a false move.
Recently, many people have been asking me:
"Japan is going to raise interest rates, does this mean we are going to see another global crash?" To be honest, this kind of panic is already a step behind. The current Bank of Japan has long learned the set of the Federal Reserve - expectation management.
It's not about suddenly taking action, but rather about giving a heads-up in advance and allowing the market to digest slowly. Many people, upon seeing the words "Japan interest rate hike", immediately flash back to the last time:
BTC dropped from 60,000 to 50,000 in one go, and liquidity tightened instantly. But you need to understand one thing:
The last time was a surprise attack, this time it's an open script.
Will Japan's interest rate hike + US interest rate cut really trigger a global financial crisis? My conclusion: probably not.
Recently, many people are spreading a saying:
👉 Once Japan raises interest rates, global assets will collectively crash;
👉 Adding to that, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the dollar weakens, and capital flows back to Japan;
👉 Decades of 'yen carry trade' will be liquidated in one stroke.
It sounds frightening, but let's break down the logic. 1. Why is the yen called the 'global borrowing currency'? For more than 30 years, Japan has had long-term zero or even negative interest rates,
which is extremely rare globally.
What is the result?
Borrowing yen is almost costless Exchange for dollars, pounds, or Australian dollars to buy US stocks, bonds, real estate, and funds
I realized for the first time: the cryptocurrency world is not about 'losing money', but it can directly destroy lives.
I have a classmate who, In Byte for 22 years, annual salary 800,000, Technical position, bright future, everyone around admired him. That year, he did something that many people thought was 'bold': Sold the house and used all the money to trade cryptocurrencies. He said something that I still remember: "I don't want to work my whole life; I want to do it faster." The result is something everyone knows. A night of explosions. It wasn't a halving, it wasn't a pullback, the account was directly cleared. The next morning, he went to work as usual. But the whole person was already empty. There was a car accident on the road, and I was sent to the ICU. Life was saved, but the leg was lost.
Gray Star, I had a full position of 10 times with 10,000 U, retraced 3%, and the money is gone!” Brothers, I will never forget this phone call. At 2 a.m., my phone kept vibrating, an old friend from Jiangxi nervously asked me: “Gray Star, I opened a full position of 10 times with 10,000 U, it only retraced 3%, and it was directly wiped out. Was this a problem with the platform?” I looked at his trading record:
9500 U full position charge 10 times leverage
The key is—— Didn’t even set a stop loss
A typical 'warrior' operation in the crypto world.
Many people think: Full position = can withstand, low leverage is safe.
Why must virtual currency be strictly controlled domestically? In one sentence: It is inherently 'anti-regulation.'
Brothers, if you understand this matter today, you will be able to speak directly when others discuss policies and regulations in the future. 💡The truth in one sentence: Virtual currency inherently restrains the regulatory system.** The traditional financial system has one core:
Funds must be controllable, traceable, and reversible. But cryptocurrencies are:
Cross-border, fast, hard to trace, decentralized, and resistant to censorship. The two are naturally opposed. 📌First, look at the real case:
Why is cross-border capital so difficult? You sell a first-tier house and pocket 5 million.
Want to exchange it for 700,000 US dollars to use abroad?
The Overlooked Federal Reserve News That May Affect BTC More Than 'Interest Rate Cuts!'
Brothers, yesterday everyone was focusing on the interest rate decision, watching the dot plot, and paying attention to whether Powell's words would trigger market movements. But you overlooked a very critical piece of news—
The Federal Reserve announced the reappointment of 11 regional Federal Reserve chairpersons, locking in their terms for a full 5 years! The value of this news is higher than 'cutting interest rates by 25bp.' **📌 1. Why is this matter so important? In short: The people who decide the future policy direction have already been chosen in advance.**
The Federal Reserve has made it very clear:
The terms of all regional Federal Reserve chairpersons are uniformly locked until 2026.
“Understanding this statement from the Federal Reserve is key to knowing how BTC will move in the future!”
Last night the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, and as soon as the news came out, many friends immediately rushed in to ask me:
“Hey, shouldn’t a rate cut be good news and make BTC soar? Why did BTC initially react with a decline?” In fact, what determines the market direction is not the two words “interest rate cut,” but rather the key phrase in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes:
—“Inflation still has uncertainties, so only one rate cut is expected in 2026.” Don’t be fooled by how short this sentence is; it is the real trump card behind last night’s market fluctuations. 📌 1. What the market wants is not just a rate cut, but “continuous rate cuts.” What everyone has been looking forward to is:
Today's Crypto News: Interest Rate Cuts Bring Good News but Turn into Bad News? BTC/ETH Staging V-Shaped Volatility Battle!
The market has just experienced a super exciting market node: 🔹 The Federal Reserve has just lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (the third consecutive rate cut), bringing the benchmark interest rate down to 3.50%–3.75%, aligning with most market expectations. Business Insider+1
🔹 This is the final blow for 2025, which was originally expected to be strong, but an anomaly has occurred: BTC/ETH did not soar like a 'bullish market' but instead experienced a choppy decline! CoinDesk+1 🔎 Why has the good news turned into 'good news exhausted'? In the crypto world, this situation is not the first time it has occurred. I have summarized the core logic into three points:
Three years ago, invested 100 million, how much can still be left now?
100 million invested in APT, now approximately 180,000 remaining 100 million invested in AXS (once a god in the blockchain gaming sector), now still 60,000 remaining 100 million invested in GALA, now about 70,000 remaining 100 million invested in GMT (the dream of making money through running), now 40,000 remaining 100 million invested in SUI, now about 220,000 remaining 100 million invested in IMX, now approximately 300,000 remaining 100 million invested in OP (one of the strongest L2s), now still 280,000 remaining 100 million invested in ARB, now 200,000 remaining 100 million invested in NEAR, now 350,000 remaining 100 million invested in MATIC, now 320,000 remaining#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #代币化热潮