Friends who are still monitoring the market at three in the morning, raise your hands! Are you staring at the K-line of XX coin, with your fingers itching to click 'buy'? First, pull the mouse away! There are hidden intentions of the main force in this downward trend; blindly bottom-fishing may not be 'picking up bargains' but instead giving the main force 'headcount'.
First, let's recap this operation with the old fans: I have repeatedly emphasized that the first target for XX coin is 3030. Last week, when the price hit that level precisely, I decisively told my students to take profits and liquidate half of their positions. We managed to reap the rewards this time. Unfortunately, the subsequent market reversal was too swift, and the remaining positions triggered passive stop-loss orders, so overall it feels like 'we earned a chicken leg, but didn’t eat the whole chicken', with mixed feelings. Now the backend is flooded with questions asking 'when is the next entry point?' Today, we will break it down and discuss it thoroughly, with a lot of valuable information.
First, let's look at the daily chart; this is key to judging the overall trend. Before this article was published, XX coin peaked at 3030, then fell all the way to 2832, and is now hovering around 2809, a typical 'high and then low' trend with trapped positions. Key indicators to watch: when the price hits the EMA15 trend resistance at 3050, it turns back, indicating heavy selling pressure above; the MACD volume changed from 'expanding surge' to 'contracting flat,' and the DIF and DEA formed a death cross, which is a bearish signal on the daily level, not to be taken lightly. The Bollinger Bands are more intuitive, with the middle track at 3060 becoming a roadblock, and the lower track at 2800 temporarily supporting, but the KDJ indicator is nearly at the bottom of the screen, and the bearish strength has not yet dissipated.
Zooming in on the four-hour chart, the short-term trend is even worse. The previous support level at 2870 broke easily, and now it's 'playing dead' around 2850; the EMA moving averages are all diverging downwards, like sharp knives, especially the EMA15 at 2956 forming resistance, making it nearly impossible to rebound in the short term. A coin friend asked, 'Since the MACD is diverging from the bottom, is there going to be a rebound?' I have to pour cold water on that: divergence does not mean reversal, it only indicates 'the drop is too fast, needs a breather.' The DIF and DEA are still moving downwards, and the bearish trend has not changed; although the RSI has entered the oversold range, it can oversell even more after being oversold, so don't mistake a 'technical rebound' for a 'reversal signal.' The lower track of the Bollinger Bands at 2825 is the last line of defense in the short term; if it breaks, the next support to watch will be around 2700.
Here, I must emphasize my core viewpoint: XX coin is still in a phase of high control by the main forces; they can push it up or smash it down, and we small investors should not 'arm wrestle' with the main forces. The most important thing right now is not 'how much money to make by bottom-fishing,' but 'to preserve capital and stay alive.' Many people panic when they fall, always thinking about 'buying at the lowest point,' but the result is often 'buying halfway up the mountain.' Isn't the lesson from chasing the high at 3000 points not enough?
Finally, the conclusion: when can we enter the market? Wait! Wait for what? Wait for a clear signal of a stop in decline, such as a bullish engulfing candle appearing on the daily level, the MACD forming a golden cross, and the price stabilizing above the EMA15. All three conditions are essential. Until then, regardless of whether the price drops to 2800 or 2700, do not act rashly.
The notes from my market observation at 3 AM have been shared with you all, and they are all experiences built on real investments. Where do you think XX coin will stop falling? Or do you have any unique indicator usage? Let's discuss in the comments, and the one with the most likes, I will analyze your holdings separately. Follow me@帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
