When opening the market software, I experienced a cardiac arrest; I closed it but couldn't help but click it open again. Are you the one who has been watching ETH this week? It just stabilized above 3000 points, and suddenly it crashed down to the 'death line' at 2800. The rebound wasn't even warm before another wave of diving came, and the comments section is full of cries of 'this wave is going to fail.' But as someone who has been watching the crypto market for six years, I can responsibly say: this wave of fluctuations is not a warning of a crash, but rather a 'calming pill' for long-term players.
Let's first talk about the 'roller coaster market' this week that scared off 30% of newcomers. Many people shout 'it's over' when they see a straight drop, but is there really a problem with ETH itself? I reviewed the capital flow and liquidation data from the past three days, and the answer is clear: it has nothing to do with the project's fundamentals; it's purely a 'collective crash scene of leveraged players.' Recently, the market stabilized a bit, and many people added high leverage with the mindset of 'quick in and out to earn quick money.' As a result, a slight price adjustment triggered forced liquidations, and sell orders rolled out like a snowball, creating the illusion that 'it crashed.' Every time it drops to a low, there is decisive capital coming in to catch the falling knife, which led to the repeated fluctuations of 'drop-pull-drop-pull.' In short, the main force is helping the market 'filter out speculators.'
Compared to staring at the K-line in shock, the real 'calming signal' lies in the supply data. This is also the core indicator that I analyze every week: the available chip volume on mainstream trading platforms has been decreasing, simply put, 'there are fewer and fewer people wanting to sell.' This is not a small signal; it’s important to understand that price fluctuations are fundamentally a supply-demand game. When selling pressure drops to this level, as long as there is new buying coming in, the price simply cannot be suppressed. More crucially, I have obtained firsthand data from institutional friends showing that quite a few gray-level funds have been quietly building positions. This combination of 'reduced supply + smart money entering' is the backbone supporting ETH's long-term trend.
Therefore, I summarize this week's market conditions with three words: choppy washing, differentiation and clearing. In the short term, those speculative positions that couldn't withstand volatility have mostly been cleaned out, but market sentiment has not fully stabilized yet. It’s highly likely that it will continue to jump back and forth between 2800-3100. If you have a poor mindset, don’t keep staring at the market every day; it might affect your meals and sleep. However, the logic for the medium and long term has never changed. With ETH's ecological position and technological consensus in place, as long as the overall direction of the crypto market remains unchanged, its value will only gradually be realized with the expansion of application scenarios.
Finally, a word for the true long-term players: this pullback is not a 'cut-loss signal,' but rather a more reliable entry opportunity than above 3000 points. If you have a mindset of 'holding for over a year,' there’s no need to panic now; instead, you can gradually accumulate on dips. However, if you are a speculator thinking about 'doubling in a week,' I advise you to exit early. This market has never lacked opportunities, but what it lacks is the patience to withstand volatility.
Next week, I will focus on the key support level of 2750. If it really drops to this range, I will share my trading ideas in the comments section at the first opportunity. Did you get shaken out this week or did you take the chance to add positions? Let’s chat about your actions in the comments section, follow me@帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
