“Just after cutting losses, it skyrocketed. Am I being monitored by the market?” Yesterday, this message exploded in the backend. Upon opening the market chart, sure enough, as soon as the interest rate hike news from Japan came out, the price of the coin crashed to the floor, and a group of people cried as they cut their losses and left the market. As a result, they turned around and suddenly shot up, leaving those who cut their losses far behind at the foot of the mountain. How come this kind of “precise harvesting” always catches some people repeatedly?
As a veteran who has been crawling through the crypto circle for eight years, today we won't play around; let's dig into the underlying logic of Bitcoin's “first drop then surge,” and also discuss the overlooked “money-making signals” behind this interest rate hike in Japan. The conclusion is: this drop is not the end, but rather a “ticket to board” selected by the main players for the smart ones. Whether you can catch it or not depends on whether you understand the tricks involved.
Many people criticize the market as 'anti-human nature,' but it's not the market; it's that you are too easily swayed by emotions. Take this interest rate hike in Japan, for example; the news was circulating in the community half a month ago, clearly telling you 'it might drop.' Yet some people waited until the moment the interest rate hike was announced, and when they saw a sea of red on the screen, they panicked and sold off indiscriminately. It's like a weather forecast saying it will rain tomorrow, but you choose not to bring an umbrella, and then you get drenched; can you blame the weather?
First, let’s clarify a misconception: this interest rate hike in Japan is completely different from the previous 'black swans.' Why? Because 'expectations have already been digested.' Those who understand a bit of technical analysis know that looking at the market can't just be about the rise and fall of candlesticks; you also need to look at trading volume—during this drop, the trading volume has already shrunk to recent lows. What does this mean? It means that those willing to sell have already sold, and what's left are the tough nuts who are 'holding on to the end.' In such times, the main players only need to lightly push down a bit of chips to ignite panic, waiting for the retail investors to trample each other and hand over low-priced shares willingly.
Here, I must reveal the main players' 'harvesting tactics.' Remember these points so you don't get fooled next time: the main players never 'smash the chips to a low price for you,' but rather sell while buying during the drop. Step one, throw out a small portion of chips to make the market turn red, causing timid retail investors to follow and sell, allowing the main players to take the opportunity to buy; step two, upon seeing someone bottom-fishing, throw out a bit more chips to create the illusion of 'further drops,' causing panicked retail investors to frantically cut losses, while the main players continue to accumulate at low levels. After a few rounds, the main players have more and more chips, while retail investors either lose them or get stuck. Once the main players have enough, they can turn around and push the market up. What you think is the 'floor price' is actually the main players' 'granary'; each cut you make is adding bricks to the main players' wallet.
To go deeper, most people only focus on the two words 'interest rate hike,' but forget the more critical 'exchange rate account.' Will Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% necessarily lead to global capital outflows? That's too naive. Let's do a simple calculation: the US dollar is in a rate-cutting phase while the Japanese yen is in a rate-hiking phase, which means the yen should rise and the dollar should fall. Suppose you borrowed 15,500 yen in Japan, and at that time, you only needed 100 dollars to exchange for it; now that the yen has risen, 100 dollars can only be exchanged for 14,000 yen. If you were to pay back your 15,500 yen debt with dollars now, you would need to fork out over 110 dollars. The interest has gone up a bit, but the exchange rate cost has skyrocketed. If it were you, would you be anxious to pay back the money now?
So the real risk isn't the action of 'interest rate hikes' itself, but rather the 'hawkish statements' that may follow from Japan. As long as expectations of a stronger yen and a weakening dollar are tied together, capital outflows could occur. The current market resembles the main players using this 'interest rate hike' as a pretext to complete the last washout, clearing out those 'weak-willed' speculators and paving the way for the upcoming market.
Honestly, every time the market fluctuates, I can see two types of people: one is panicking and chasing after gains and losses, lamenting after cutting losses; the other is calmly analyzing the logic and quietly positioning themselves at low levels. The crypto market has never been about 'gambling on size' but rather about 'competing in understanding.' The depth of your understanding of the market determines the stability of your returns.
Lastly, here’s a small question: were you thrown off the bus this time, or did you seize the opportunity to pick up some chips? Share your actions in the comments section, and follow me @帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
