The CPI data to be announced on Thursday and the potential interest rate decision in Japan on Friday. Risk aversion has already fermented in advance, and the price retracement in the early morning can be interpreted as a risk hedging allocation by some funds— the essence of market speculation is not the news itself, but the price repricing mechanism driven by the news.

From the daily structure analysis, the market is still operating within a large oscillation range. The key resistance above is concentrated in the 88000-89500 range, which is a resonance resistance zone formed by the lower edge of the previous high platform and the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. If the news catalyzes a price rebound to this range, but lacks volume support and sustained breakthrough momentum, it can be regarded as an opportunity for a high short layout at the daily level. The logic behind this is: failure of key resistance tests often indicates the continuation of oscillation or correction patterns, and bearish forces may regroup again, with the primary support to observe at the 84000 level.

The core defense line below is located in the 84080-83520 range, formed by the daily level support confirmed by multiple previous retracements. If the CPI or interest rate news triggers short-term panic selling pressure, and the price returns to this area and shows signs of stabilizing (such as a long lower shadow K-line on the daily chart or structural support confirmation), it can be seen as an opportunity to intervene in the low long position at the daily level. The logic is based on the release of rebound momentum after the negative news is priced in, with the primary bullish target pointing to the 86000 previous oscillation midpoint. $BTC #ETH走势分析