Last night's non-farm data left Wall Street analysts scratching their heads—64,000 new jobs far exceeded expectations, yet the unemployment rate soared to a two-year high of 4.6%, and hourly wage growth surprisingly weakened. What kind of ordinary economic data is this? It's simply the 'Schrodinger's cat' of the American labor market: it seems to be expanding and contracting at the same time! Let me, a veteran in the crypto world, tell you that these contradictory numbers actually point in the same direction: the liquidity gate is about to burst.


1. The devil is in the details hidden in the 'government shutdown'

Many people have not noticed that the October data plummeted by 105,000 jobs, mainly because government departments cut 162,000 jobs in one go—this is the most severe administrative layoff in decades! But what does this have to do with our crypto circle? It has a big relation! Historical experience repeatedly verifies: whenever the public sector shrinks, the Federal Reserve's easing hand becomes more restless. The current situation is:


  • Companies' willingness to hire is being suffocated by high interest rates (AI replacement is still accelerating).


  • But the labor supply has shrunk due to immigration policies.


  • Wage growth suddenly stalled (month-on-month 0.1%!)


This 'low-temperature slow-cooked' job market gives the Fed a perfect excuse to shift direction early. Don't forget, 2024 is an election year; do you really think politicians can tolerate an unemployment rate exceeding 5%?


Second, the 'counterintuitive' script of the crypto market.

Traditional analysts are still entangled in 'soft landing or hard landing', while we on-chain players should focus on this core contradiction: the more divided the economic data, the lower the predictability of policies → the more traditional capital needs 'asymmetric bets'. What does this mean?


  1. Bitcoin's 'policy hedging' attribute is upgrading—when the unemployment rate and job growth run counter to each other, the combination of U.S. Treasury bonds and gold in institutions' hands will be affected. At this time, you will find that the volatility of BTC and ETH has actually become an advantage: it at least provides an exposure independent of traditional logic.


  2. Beware of the long-term poison of the 'AI replacement narrative'! The report lightly mentions that 'companies believe AI can accomplish many tasks', which is actually a structural change in the labor market. This can lead to a magical phenomenon: even if the economy warms up in the future, recruitment may remain sluggish. So... where did the dividends of productivity improvements go? Part of it will quietly flow into automated infrastructure—such as decentralized computing networks and crypto-native projects with AI agents (specific project names are not mentioned here, but those who understand, understand).


  3. The most clever operation comes now: weak wage growth + contradictory employment data = the lagging effect of inflation decline is not over yet. If inflation unexpectedly drops below 3% in Q1 next year, while the unemployment rate remains high... Do you believe the Fed's rate cuts will be more aggressive than what the dot plot shows? Once liquidity bursts out, the first stop will not be the stock market (valuations are already high), but those 'macro-sensitive assets' that have long awaited a sweet rain.


Third, the suggestions for your clever operations.

  1. Don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations: if non-farm data causes BTC to spike, remember to check the balance of the Fed's reverse repo tool—those 5.4 trillion overnight funds are still lurking in the sidelines.


  2. Pay attention to 'layoff concept coins' (just kidding, but the logic is real): those crypto projects that solve labor market friction, such as decentralized job networks and skill tokenization platforms, may welcome a new narrative window in the long term.


  3. Prepare for two scenarios:


    • If the unemployment rate soars in the next three months → position in sovereign debt-related RWA tokens in advance (they will soar when the Fed cuts rates).


    • If employment suddenly rebounds but inflation remains low → go all in on those altcoins with a 'Bitcoin beta coefficient greater than 1' (they will rise crazily when liquidity overflows).


Finally, a touching point: many researchers are still using the 2022 framework to analyze data—focusing on the fluctuations of individual data to bet on short-term ups and downs. But the real alpha always comes from seeing the fractures in the logical chain and positioning before the market wakes up. In this non-farm report, I sense that the predictive models of the traditional financial system are failing, and the charm of crypto lies precisely in its birth from this failure. Follow me @链上标哥 to not get lost!