链上标哥

The most exciting day in the crypto market this year - Japan is about to raise interest rates to 0.75%, a new high not seen in nearly 30 years! Are some of you already panicking and rushing to check your holdings? Don't rush to act randomly; let me, an old hand with 8 years of experience, break it down for you. The core of this shock isn't the interest rate hike itself, but the 'massive movement of funds' hidden behind it!
Let's make it clear, Japan is holding a whopping 11.8 trillion US dollars in treasury bonds, which is no small amount. What does raising interest rates mean? Simply put, it means paying more interest on debt, and who wouldn't feel the pinch? So what will definitely happen next is: Japan will adjust its asset portfolio, which means 'selling off dollar assets to exchange for yen to pay off debt.'

Every day, the most frequently asked question in the background is: 'Old man, how long will it take for $1,000 to grow to $100,000?' Every time I see this question, I can't help but laugh—not because I think the friend asking is greedy; after all, who wouldn't want to achieve wealth transformation with a small amount of capital? But to be honest, this matter has nothing to do with time; it all depends on whether you have found the right path, rather than daydreaming every day on the market page!
In the cryptocurrency market over the past few years, I have fallen into enough traps to fill a basket: I chased high-priced vaporware projects and ended up getting 'sliced' right after entering; I also missed out on tenfold potential tokens, panicking and selling after they rose by 3 times, and looking back, I just wanted to slap my thigh; there was even a time I miscalculated leverage and lost half a month's profit in one day. It is precisely these bloody lessons that have led me to discover two solid paths to monetization, and today I will share them all with you!

Yesterday, I managed to carve out more than 10 points from LIGHT, but I regretfully exited early, only to watch the market continue to rise, slapping my thigh in frustration! Don't laugh at my lack of vision; in the crypto circle, securing profits is always the way to go—of course, I won't miss this wave today. My bearish position is already in place, with a small position paired with reasonable leverage, and the stop-loss is set around 1.5360. A new round of competition has officially begun!
First, let me share some solid insights with everyone, instead of just focusing on my operations. When the U.S. non-farm payroll data came out yesterday, many friends were caught off guard. Is the better-than-expected performance a good sign or a bad one? In my view, this wave of data essentially injected a dose of 'uncertainty' into the market. Non-farm data exceeding expectations means the job market remains robust, which provides room for potential policy adjustments. In the crypto market, this could indicate a phase of tightening liquidity. During such times, the volatility of mainstream assets will significantly increase, which gives us an opportunity for precise positioning. This is one of the core reasons I dared to continue engaging with LIGHT today.

Emergency warning! The interest rate hike in Japan on December 19 is about to officially detonate this 'deep-water bomb.' The cryptocurrency circle has already entered 'a state of emergency'—last night, the market barely rebounded, only to be pressed down by overwhelming selling pressure. Those big holders who usually shout 'hold long-term' are running faster than anyone else; it's simply too real!
As an old hand deeply immersed in the crypto circle for many years, I can confidently say: this time, the interest rate hike in Japan is definitely not a small matter. Understanding the logic behind it is crucial to avoid being cut by the market! Newcomers might ask, what does Japan's interest rate hike have to do with our crypto circle? Don't worry, I'm going to break it down for you step by step.

Friends in the crypto circle, perk up your ears! December 19th is a key date that must be ingrained in our DNA— the neighboring central bank is about to announce a new target interest rate, and this move is likely to become the 'invisible fuse' that ignites recent fluctuations in Bitcoin! Don't think I'm spreading anxiety; if you look back at the market ledger over the past year, you'll find the connection between these two is almost 'mystical yet real'. Today, I’ll share my exclusive insights with you!
As a veteran who has been in the crypto circle for five years, I firmly believe: history does not simply repeat itself, but it does tend to rhyme remarkably. Let's first look at the market performance in the past year following the central bank's interest rate hikes; it's all solid information, and I suggest everyone save it for a slow read!

Yesterday's market made my blood pressure rise—on one side, the whole network is shouting 'the bull is back,' while on the other side, ETH is jumping around near 2800. Don't panic, I've gone through on-chain data, order flow, and liquidation charts, and I can clearly tell you: this is not a trend reversal; it's a 'precise surgical operation' at the end of a downtrend. The main players are doing two things: squeezing out the last of the long leverage while secretly building positions. A direct V-shaped reversal? You're thinking too much. But the script of 'false breakdown, true pullback' is gaining probability.

First Layer: What play is the market really putting on?

Speak in a way you can understand:

Who stayed up all night in the crypto circle last night? Raise your hand and let me see how many people were left questioning life by that 'Heaven and Earth Needle'! Don't naively think it was just market randomness; this is actually a carefully orchestrated 'hunting drama' by the main force—I'm Old Yang, a veteran with eight years in the crypto market, and I'm laying it out today: understanding last night's tricks is the key to avoiding tonight's big pit!
How magical was last night's market? Anyone holding positions knows: major coins first touched the high of 3030, and many joyfully leveraged up, only to be slammed down and rubbed on the ground, directly crashing back to around 2800. This wild rollercoaster is no coincidence, nor is it some 'market fluctuation'; it's the main force playing a classic 'entice and harvest' trick during the period of lowest liquidity.

Brothers, stop staring at those daily fluctuations—the real nuclear-level signals are not on the price charts, but in the most original data on the blockchain: the Ethereum reserves on exchanges are almost 'emptied'! I have gone through historical records, and this level of liquidity exhaustion hasn't occurred since before the birth of smart contracts. This is not an adjustment; this is a 'surgical harvesting' targeting the spot market.

Part one: When 'not being able to buy' is scarier than 'not being able to rise'.

The hardest logic in the market is always supply and demand. And the current situation is:

Supply side exhaustion: Whales and institutions are withdrawing ETH in bulk from exchanges. This is not a short-term operation, but a strategic accumulation—they are betting not on tomorrow, but on next year.

This recent spike in ETH has left people bewildered! As someone who has been watching the market for 8 years, I dare to say: Ethereum is now at a crossroads of fate. The 3,000 USD mark is comparable to the 'ultimate arena' of the bull and bear battle. Once a victor is determined, the whole market will shake! If you don't understand the intricacies here, quickly grab a good spot; today's article is full of valuable insights—missing out could lead to significant losses!
Let me highlight for both new and old investors: ETH has been 'idling' in a triangular consolidation for the past month. Those who understand the technology know that such a pattern must lead to significant market movements. In my view, 3,000 USD is not just a simple number but a 'touchstone' for the confidence of bulls and bears—if it breaks above 3,200 USD and can hold, it will be the 'green light' for upward movement, and there will likely be a nice rally afterward. However, if it falls below 2,950 USD, we need to be cautious, as the probability of testing 2,800 USD will rise sharply. Don't just watch the excitement without guarding against risks.

Does the market lie? No, money doesn't deceive.

First, let's look at this "high spike and drop" drama—prices shot up but couldn't hold, then fell back to where they started. Is this a technical adjustment? This is called "the main force testing the market"!

Every spike feels like it's shouting, "I'm about to take off!", but the next second it backs down... It's all about mentality, and cutting losses is for the impatient.
Look at the moving averages, goodness, the three lines (7-day, 25-day, 99-day) are almost twisted into a "ceiling", firmly pressing down around 128.
Every time the price rises, it gets pushed back down, it's like searching for an exit in a locked room—clearly seeing the light, but unable to break through the wall.

Recently, there is a signal in the crypto circle comparable to a "nuclear explosion," and 90% of retail investors haven't reacted yet. If you don't take it seriously, this bull market might really have nothing to do with you—even leading you to doubt life due to losses!
As someone who has immersed in the crypto space for 10 years, I diligently analyze on-chain data every day. Yesterday, this set of data made me exclaim: the supply of ETH on exchanges has actually dropped back to 2016 levels! That's right, the era when the crypto circle hadn't broken out and everyone relied on "word of mouth" to buy coins! Coincidentally, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has also dropped to just 2.75 million, hitting a new low in recent years.

Recently, I came across a ludicrous event while reviewing on-chain data — a token called ICNT was flagged by an on-chain address labeling tool with a shocking revelation: all the top holders labeled as “large holders” turned out to be suspected “phishing addresses”! This operation left me dumbfounded; has the scheme to exploit investors become so AI-driven and indiscriminate now? They want to take away even the fifty cents in your pocket?
Let me break it down for the newbies: how much of a scam is this?
As an analyst who is constantly grappling with on-chain data, I must tell you something practical — tokens of this kind, labeled as “large holders = suspected phishing addresses,” are essentially traps that sharpen the scythe quickly.

Trump's recent statement on national television directly caused a stir, with the 'tariff revenue' of 18 trillion making people’s scalps tingle. Even economists were arguing in a muddle, while our friends in the crypto circle should not just treat this as gossip—there's a hidden wealth code for the next 1-2 years! As a crypto veteran with 8 years of experience, today I will help you uncover the underlying logic of this matter, and also discuss why it will bring great opportunities to the BTC and ETH ecosystems.
First, let me clarify for friends who are unaware: Old Trump stated, 'Relying on tariffs to crazily rake in 18 trillion dollars in 10 months, Biden hasn't even reached 1 trillion in four years.' As soon as this was said, the media immediately shouted 'chaos,' retail investors felt their blood boiling, but those in the know understand that this is not direct tariff cash revenue at all! To put it simply, Old Trump is using tariffs as 'bait,' forcing many companies to obediently build factories in the U.S. to avoid taxes. The total investment announced by these companies adds up to 18 trillion—one must admit, this wave of 'policy leverage' is indeed skillful.

Japan's recent interest rate hike has directly hit the crypto market like a 'sudden punch.' Some people in the group are already panicking and cutting losses, while others are waiting to buy at the bottom! As someone who has been in the game for 5 years, let me break it down for you in plain language: is this market movement a 'doomsday panic' or a 'buy signal'? After reading this, you'll be more clear-headed than 90% of retail investors!
Let me throw out my personal core viewpoint: there will definitely be pressure in the short term, but don't get swayed by emotions; after the interest rate hike is finalized, there might actually be a rebound opportunity, the key is whether you can 'avoid pitfalls and catch treasures'!
Let's first talk about the most exciting short-term market—why am I confident in saying that there is a high probability of pressure? The core reason is simple: 'cheap yen funds' are about to withdraw! Those in the know understand that for the past few years, yen interest rates have been ridiculously low, and many institutions and retail investors love to borrow yen to trade cryptocurrencies because the cost of borrowing is low, and making a profit from the price difference is pure profit. This operation is commonly known in the circle as 'carry trading.'

Have you recently been inundated with U.S. ADP and non-farm payroll data? When you open the market software, the screen is full of 'speculations on Federal Reserve policy,' but I dare say that what can truly make the crypto market shake is actually another major event that you all overlooked—Japan's interest rate hike!
Don't believe it? Let's look at history: In 2000, the internet bubble burst, and many people only blamed the high valuations of tech stocks, but no one noticed that Japan's interest rate hike was the key straw that broke the camel's back; In 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis swept the globe, and everyone criticized Wall Street's greed, but forgot that Japan's policy shift had long buried the seeds of liquidity tightening. This is not a coincidence, but the power of the yen, the 'global liquidity tap'!

Recently, the backend has been bombarded with questions about “how to buy stablecoins without encountering dishonest merchants.” When I opened it, I found all were tales of blood and tears: some were tricked by merchants into adding corporate WeChat and were blacklisted after sending red envelopes; others transferred money only to be told by the merchant “I didn’t receive it,” and when the platform intervened, they found that the other party’s receiving account had nothing to do with the certification information — these unscrupulous merchants' tricks are even more disgusting than the BTC price needle!
As someone who has been in the crypto space for 8 years, I must clarify today: those merchants who only let you add them privately, only accept red envelopes, and refuse any platform transfers are 100% trying to take advantage of you! Don’t think that “low-price discounts” and “instant transfers” are enticing; while you focus on their price difference, they are focused on your principal. You lost this game the moment you added them on corporate WeChat!

Last night's non-farm data left Wall Street analysts scratching their heads—64,000 new jobs far exceeded expectations, yet the unemployment rate soared to a two-year high of 4.6%, and hourly wage growth surprisingly weakened. What kind of ordinary economic data is this? It's simply the 'Schrodinger's cat' of the American labor market: it seems to be expanding and contracting at the same time! Let me, a veteran in the crypto world, tell you that these contradictory numbers actually point in the same direction: the liquidity gate is about to burst.

1. The devil is in the details hidden in the 'government shutdown'

As soon as the non-farm data was announced last night, the crypto community exploded — some were slapping their thighs shouting 'the bull market is coming', while others leveraged overnight, as if mainstream coins were about to take off collectively in the next second! But as veterans in the circle for many years, we just want to say one thing: stay sober! This wave of operations is purely the market taking 'bad news' as 'stimulants'; once the effect wears off, things will go back to how they were!
First, let me break down the core storyline from last night for friends who are new to the circle: the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November was released, and on the surface, it seems like the 'Schrodinger's economy' — the number of new jobs added was surprisingly higher than market expectations, which should indicate a positive economic signal; however, on the other hand, the unemployment rate skyrocketed to the highest point since September 2021. With this set of contradictory data, the market somehow interpreted it as a 'positive signal': high unemployment rate = poor economy = the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates to save the market!

On one side, the SEC is preparing big moves to advance the innovation of the digital asset regulatory framework, while on the other side, major data releases are imminent, dividing the community into two factions: newbies are panicking and clearing their positions overnight, fearing to fall into the double pit of 'regulation + data'; while the veterans are secretly adjusting their positions, waiting to feast on this wave of segment profits!
As someone who has been watching ETH for 8 years and has experienced three rounds of regulatory storms, I will state the conclusion directly: this wave is not a risk, it is a gift question! The key is not in how explosive the 'news' itself is, but whether you can see through the underlying logic of regulatory innovation, grasp the timing of entering ETH, and understand the essence of taking profits—after all, many people stumble, not because they bought the wrong coin, but because they won in the market but lost out on taking profits.

Some people cut their losses and ran overnight, leaving messages asking me 'Is the bear market about to restart?', while others panicked and jumped into short positions, only to be slapped in the face by the rebound of mainstream assets!
As someone who has been closely following macro policies for 8 years, I'll get straight to the point: these two pieces of news are not 'bad news bombs' at all, but rather could be 'buy signals'! 90% of people are panicking because they don't understand the 'expectation gap behind the news'—the crypto market is no longer just swaying with single policies like a novice; to make money, you need to grasp the core logic, rather than being led by the news.