1. The harsh truth of the market: The 'golden era' of altcoins has long ended
I have seen too many people obsessed with finding the 'next Bitcoin', resulting in a 90% shrinkage of their accounts. Data shows that the altcoin season index for 2025 is only 35 (needs to be >75 to enter altcoin season), and funds have not rotated massively into small coins. Those who fantasize about altcoin surges often overlook one fact: In 2024, VC tokens worth over $2 billion will be unlocked, which will be wildly sold off once released.
What’s even more heartbreaking is that the current bull market is dominated by traditional financial powers. Institutional funds only recognize Bitcoin (digital gold) and Ethereum (world computer), with even the institutional holding ratio of SOL at only 9.5%, far below BTC and ETH's 18%. Retail investors rushing to play with altcoins is like fighting a battle with bare hands against armored troops, with slim chances of victory.
2. The moat of mainstream coins: liquidity, consensus, and real demand
Why do I dare to say 'the end of altcoins is mainstream'? Three core logical supports:
✅ Liquidity is king
Bitcoin's daily trading volume exceeds 385 billion RMB, while most altcoins have a trading volume of less than 1 billion. High liquidity means large funds can enter and exit freely, avoiding the awkward situation of 'wanting to sell but no one is buying'.
✅ Consensus is value
Bitcoin has undergone multiple bull and bear tests, becoming the preferred asset for many institutions and individuals to store value. Its decentralized nature allows it to be free from control by any single entity. This long-established trust is difficult for any altcoin to reach.
✅ Real demand driven
Ethereum supports the vast majority of DeFi and NFT projects, forming a large and active ecosystem. Meanwhile, Solana, with its high-performance advantages, has attracted many developers and projects, especially in the fields of DeFi, gaming, and NFTs. A thriving ecosystem ensures continuous demand, allowing prices to rise in the long term.
3. Institutional play has changed: three major trends that retail investors must recognize
Trend 1: Compliance eliminates altcoins
Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved, with Ethereum ETFs following closely. However, altcoins still face pressure from SEC scrutiny and could be classified as securities at any time. Compliance means access to funds, and institutions are reluctant to touch assets with high compliance risks.
Trend 2: Macro narratives dominate the market
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, but liquidity is more inclined towards safe-haven assets. When risk and safe-haven assets decline simultaneously, the market is undergoing a liquidity stress test, and the true safe havens in extreme conditions are cash, short-term treasury bonds, and other highly liquid assets. Altcoins are extremely vulnerable in such environments.
Trend 3: Ecological value exceeds speculation
Ethereum can hold the second position, not because of superior technology, but because it has become the settlement layer for stablecoins, RWA, and tokenization of US stocks. Solana's rise is due to its on-chain trading volume accounting for 46% of the total network and over 3 million daily active users. Coins without a real ecosystem will ultimately go to zero.
4. My strategy: How to earn 'solid money' with mainstream coins?
After years of trial and error, I have summarized a 'mainstream coin pyramid strategy':
🔥 Bottom layer (60%): BTC+ETH
Bitcoin is the 'ballast stone', combating inflation and systemic risk;
Ethereum is the 'growth engine', capturing ecological dividends from DeFi, NFTs, and more.
🚀 Middle layer (30%): SOL+BNB
Solana is a 'high-performance bet', betting on on-chain transactions becoming mainstream;
BNB is an 'ecological dividend', tied to the development of the Binance exchange.
💎 Top layer (10%): Exploring new narratives
Only invest in sectors with real demand, such as RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) and blockchain gaming platforms;
Single coin positions should not exceed 2% of total funds, with stop-loss set strictly at -20%.
5. Advice for different players
If you are a beginner:
Directly invest in BTC and ETH, leaving complex operations to professionals;
Forget about 'getting rich overnight', pursue a stable goal of 'annualized 30%-50%'.
If you have experience:
Increase your position in batches when BTC and ETH correct by 5%-10%;
Use 10% of profits to make small bets on altcoins; losses won't hurt much, and gains can be expanded.
Lastly, a few words
The market will never lack 'myths of explosive growth', but those who can truly take away profits are always those who do not pursue myths. Since Bitcoin's inception, how many times has it been declared 'dead', yet it has returned each time, because it solves the trust problem in the real world.
Remember: in a bull market, mainstream coins are amplifiers of profit; in a bear market, they are your bulletproof vest for survival.
(Note: The above is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.)
Follow me@币圈罗盘 , next time I will take you through the underlying logic of contract strategies, helping you avoid detours and earn real money!#巨鲸动向 $BTC $ETH
