Brothers, I am Mig.
At this point in the market, I know you are feeling anxious.
Don't panic, let's go through this step by step and understand tonight's game. You just need to follow my line of thought.
In-depth analysis of the news: Tonight's data, every word is valuable.
First, let's talk about tonight's 21:30 CPI and unemployment data. This is definitely not a 'just going through the motions' message. Its power lies in the logical chain:
Core CPI forecast 3.1%: If the published value is higher than 3.1%, it would directly certify Powell's 'inflation is too high' statement. The market will instantly strengthen the expectation that 'the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates,' the dollar will strengthen, and risk assets will likely collectively face pressure and plummet.
If the unexpected falls below 3.1%: the market will interpret it as inflation finally yielding, and the expectation of 'preventive rate cuts' may reignite, potentially stimulating a rebound in risk assets.
The most critical factor is the initial jobless claims: this is direct evidence of 'cooling in the labor market'. Powell and Wall Street are both watching this. If the number of unemployed increases significantly, it indicates that the economy is really slowing down, and the market may bet on the 'Federal Reserve being forced to cut rates early', creating a complex situation where 'bad news is good news'. But if employment remains resilient, then 'high interest rates will last longer' is a certainty, which is purely bearish for the crypto market.
The conclusion is: tonight's data is the 'direction switch', which will directly determine whether the market chooses to 'trade recession' or 'trade high interest rates'. The volatility will inevitably be huge; this is not a joke.
The technical analysis is cold and ruthless: charts do not lie, the key is here.
Looking at the technicals, ETH is clearly in a bearish pattern on the 4-hour chart right now. The MACD double lines are both sitting below the zero axis, indicating weak momentum.
The 3000 mark above is a significant barrier; currently, unless we break through with a massive volume, it's very difficult to reverse the trend directly.
The key level of 2890 is a watershed—if it can hold, there is a chance to reach 2980-3000; if it cannot hold, we look down to 2700, or even a spike to 2600 is possible.
My view: the current major trend is still bearish, don’t rush to bottom-fish. For short-term, if the rebound does not exceed 2890, then selling at highs is the strategy, with a stop loss above 2920, targeting around 2800. If it spikes to the 2600-2650 area, consider taking a small position for a wave long, but be sure to set a stop loss.
Practical trading advice for retail investors: listen carefully, this is what you can use directly:
Before the data is released: you can place two orders in advance: place a short order around 2895 and a long order around 2610.
After the data is released:
If it spikes to around 2890 and then turns back: this is your chance to short at highs, with a stop loss at 2920, targeting 2800 and 2700.
If there is a violent breakout past 2890 and it holds: temporarily give up shorting, and you can take a small long position, targeting 2980-3000.
If it drops directly: don’t chase! Wait for it to drop to around 2700 to look for support; if it quickly breaks down, the next stop is 2600. If it reaches the 2600 area and shows signs of stopping the decline, you can try to take a wave long position.
Brothers, I know that reading articles is one thing, but real operation is another thing altogether. Especially during data events, in these lightning-fast moments, being a few seconds late might mean missing an opportunity or stepping into a trap.
I write the analysis alone, and there will inevitably be delays. In Mig Village, the moment the data is released, I will interpret it immediately, providing clear real-time signals. What we need to do is make professionalism and speed your strongest backing.
Tonight, the winds are strong, but there is more than one boat. I will wait for you here; together we will see the direction clearly and seize opportunities.
