Let me speak plainly: CPI is the inflation thermometer that the Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on. Their dead set target is to keep inflation at 2%, but this time the market's estimated value is 3.1%, which is still far from the target. As long as it hasn't dropped to that number, the Federal Reserve won't casually sprinkle cheap money into the market. The actual result of this data and how much it differs from everyone's guess directly determines whether the crypto market will celebrate together or dim the lights and eat noodles.
Let me clarify the impact of the three possible outcomes:
Data exceeds expectations (≥3.3%): The crypto market gets drained directly, equivalent to inflation still bouncing around. The Federal Reserve raises the stick of maintaining high interest rates / even increasing rates higher, and the market’s long-awaited interest rate cut goes down the drain. The dollar will turn into a money magnet, pulling global funds towards the U.S., draining liquidity from the crypto market: mainstream coins plummet dramatically, high-leverage positions get liquidated, altcoins fall so much that even their mothers wouldn't recognize them, and everyone can only hold onto their principal and cry while seeking safety.
Data meets expectations (around 3.1%): The crypto market is swaying and finding its direction. Inflation hasn't worsened but hasn't improved either, so the Federal Reserve will continue to hold its position. The market is like a worker who hasn't had milk tea, lacking energy to sway. The crypto market also lacks a clear direction, with internal funds fighting among themselves, possibly a slight drop but no panic, and the trend depends entirely on news from the crypto space.
Data below expectations (≤2.9%): The crypto market is celebrating the New Year directly! This is a red envelope from the heavens for the crypto market! Inflation is finally moving towards the Federal Reserve's target, and the Fed dares to open the floodgates. The market will go crazy for risk assets: the dollar plunges, BTC leads the charge breaking previous key resistance, starting a new bull market for the entire crypto space, altcoins soar along with it, those holding coins directly earn big.
A reminder for the crypto community, don't wait for the data to come out and then panic:
1-2 days before the data is released, cut some high-leverage positions to avoid being caught off guard by market spikes;
Don't just look at the overall CPI; the core CPI is what the Federal Reserve really cares about, keep an eye on this;
Don't gamble blindly on this data every day. Inflation gradually decreasing is the solid foundation for a long-term bull market in crypto; strategically, keep some cash before the data comes out. If the data is favorable, decisively enter the market once coins break through key positions; if the data is unfavorable, don't rush to bottom fish, wait until the market calms down after the panic before entering in batches.
In short, the CPI is the key crossroads for the crypto market at the end of the year. Follow me, 👉chat room to understand the logic, manage your positions well, compound your gains, profit from the market, and don’t be a pawn led by the market, but a victor in the market! #美国非农数据超预期 #美国宏观经济数据上链 $BTC $ETH $SOL $PIPPIN
