Brothers, I am Niu Ge. The market has come to a point where the situation is very clear.
Currently, BTC can be summed up in one word: volatility. The price is stuck in the range of 85146 to 90365, unable to rise or fall. The short-term technicals are somewhat interesting, with bullish candlestick patterns and a golden cross of moving averages appearing, which in theory should indicate a signal for an upward movement. But where does the problem lie? It lies in the volume. The price moves, but the trading volume does not follow, which is called a divergence between volume and price, indicating that the foundation for a rise is not solid and the market's willingness to follow the trend is low.
The external environment is also lukewarm; macroeconomically, there are neither significant positive news nor obvious negative news to suppress the market. The news front is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with large whales increasing their positions and others selling off, leaving market sentiment stuck in neutral, unable to provide direction. Therefore, we are now purely engaged in technical game-playing within the range.
My core judgment is a shrinking volume and oscillation, waiting for directional choice.
In this pattern, our strategy must be adjusted accordingly, abandoning the idea of chasing highs and cutting losses; we must honestly play the high short and low long. Remember, this is an oscillating market; your thinking should be to sell high and buy low, don't get it backwards.
Regarding specific strategies, I will draw two lines. The first line is the high short line. Its position is near the round number of 90000, which is the upper edge of the current strong resistance in the range. If the price rebounds to this level while the volume still does not keep up, that is our opportunity to short at a high. Stop loss should be placed above 91000, with the target looking towards around 87000. The core logic of this strategy is to bet on it hitting resistance and falling back at the upper edge of the oscillating range.
The second line is the low buy line. Its position is near 85500, which is the lower edge of strong support in the range. If the price retraces to this level and stabilizes, one can consider buying low to go long. Stop loss should be placed below 84500, with the target looking towards around 88000. The logic of this strategy is to bet on it finding support and rebounding at the lower edge of the oscillating range.
The current market values patience and discipline. Don’t be afraid of missing out; as long as the range is not broken, opportunities will still arise. Keep your hands steady, focus on the right positions, and execute strictly. The rest is left to the market.
I am Niu Ge, the market is changing, but our strategies and discipline remain unchanged.
