牛哥说趋势

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#香港稳定币新规 #加密市场观察

After 7 years of trading cryptocurrencies, the most unforgettable year was 2020. I heavily invested in ADA, starting at $0.03. Three months later, it soared to $1.2, and my assets increased by 40 times.

Every day I woke up, I was counting how many zeros had appeared in my account, even starting to look at houses. But I didn't sell. Then ADA fell back to $0.2, and the profits dwindled to a fraction, shattering my dream of buying a house. At that moment, I suddenly realized that just knowing how to buy is only the beginning; knowing how to sell is the real skill.

After that, I developed a set of methods suitable for ordinary people, allowing me to protect profits without constantly monitoring the market.

Regarding profit-taking, I use a "ladder profit-taking" strategy. For example, if a coin rises from $1 to $2, I first sell 30% to recover my principal. When it reaches $3, I sell another 30%. I set a trailing stop for the remaining 40%, automatically selling if the price drops 15% from the peak. This way, I can catch the big ups and avoid losing profits.

As for stop-loss, I strictly adhere to a rule: a single loss should not exceed 5% of the principal. Immediately after buying, I set a -10% conditional order, like tying on a safety rope. Don't be afraid of missing opportunities; there are always opportunities in the crypto world, but if the principal is gone, it's really gone.

In 7 years, I've seen too many stories of overnight wealth, but more people have exhausted their principal through the ups and downs. Those who truly make money are often those who execute their discipline like machines. I once missed a doubling market due to a stop-loss and was laughed at for being timid, but I have no regrets. Because three months later, that coin went to zero. Here, living longer is far more important than making quick profits.

#加密市场观察 #比特币VS代币化黄金

Just now, Federal Reserve Governor Waller dropped two nuclear bombs, and the market exploded! Let's break it down point by point.

First, Waller clearly stated that the current interest rates of the Federal Reserve are 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate. What does this mean? Simply put, interest rates are already high enough and can be lowered! Even more explosive is that he said rates could be cut based solely on easing inflation prospects. This is equivalent to giving the market a reassurance— as long as inflation doesn't rebound, a rate cut is a done deal.

Second, Waller continued to sound dovish. He said that U.S. job growth has almost stalled, the impact of AI on employment is still unclear, and inflation will not accelerate again. The critical point is that the job market indicates that the Federal Reserve should continue to cut rates, and it can do so at a moderate pace without drastic actions. In plain language: rate cuts are coming, but they won't be a flood-like plunge.

Key points from Niu Ge:
Strengthened expectations for rate cuts: Waller, as a heavyweight figure within the Federal Reserve, has turned the question of when to cut into how to cut.

Once the news broke, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply, and risk assets like gold and Bitcoin surged instantly. This indicates that the market is already pricing in the expectation of rate cuts.

In the context of a shift in liquidity, the allocation value of high-volatility assets is rising. But remember, rate cuts won’t happen overnight; the market will experience repeated fluctuations.

I am Niu Ge, and during macro shifts, it's crucial to stay calm. Follow me to see the world from a trader's perspective. #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息

Just came across a hardcore financing message, the ETHGas project is quite interesting.

In simple terms, the Ethereum block space futures market ETHGas announced today that it has completed a $12 million token round financing, led by the well-known Polychain Capital in the crypto circle. This round of financing started in July and was just completed last month, entirely in the form of token rounds using the SAFT structure. The project previously raised a round of $5 million in pre-seed financing, which was not made public, but this time it doubled directly.

Key points from Niu Ge
Luxury lineup: In addition to Polychain, first-tier institutions such as Stake Capital, BlueYard, SIG DT, and Amber Group also participated. With so many big players betting, it shows that they are really optimistic about this track.
Non-cash support is even stronger: The project has also received about $800 million in liquidity support for Ethereum block space. Although it's not cash, these validators and block builders supply block space to the ETHGas market, which is equivalent to providing it with a solid business foundation.
Innovative business model: ETHGas operates the Ethereum block space futures market, which can be simply understood as allowing users to buy and sell block space in advance, rather than only being able to bid in real-time when blocks are generated. This is equivalent to adding a 'futures layer' to the Ethereum ecosystem, theoretically optimizing block space pricing efficiency.

Track value: Block space is the core resource of public chains, and if it can be turned into standardized futures products, there is indeed room for imagination.

Such infrastructure projects usually have long cycles and are difficult to land, and short-term direct returns may not be visible. Moreover, token round financing means investors are holding future tokens, which carries certain uncertainties.

Subsequently, we need to see how ETHGas integrates with the existing Ethereum ecosystem and what the actual adoption rate will be.

I am Niu Ge, only discussing visible hard logic. Such projects are suitable for long-term observation, so don't rush in. #ETH走势分析

The price has experienced a pullback from around 90,000 points to 85,146 USD, and recently has been oscillating at a low level for repair. Currently, the price is around 87,110 USD, which is a key inflection point between bulls and bears.

The 30-day moving average resistance is around 89,520 USD, and the 7-day moving average is at 87,780 USD. The current price is squeezed between the two moving averages, which indicates a typical weak oscillation pattern. To reverse the downturn, the bulls must push the price up and maintain stability above the 7-day moving average; otherwise, the bears will have the final say.

The upper range of 89,520-90,000 USD is a strong resistance area tonight, as it is both a 30-day moving average resistance and the starting platform for the previous decline. The lower range of 86,000-85,500 USD is a strong support zone, and if it breaks down, it may trigger a new round of decline.

Bull Brother's evening strategy: Before the price effectively breaks through the resistance of the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, I will continue to maintain a cautious view on the oscillation. In terms of operations, do not chase highs and do not panic sell. If the price retests the 86,500-86,000 range and finds support, consider lightly entering a long position to catch a short-term rebound. Conversely, if the price rebounds to the 89,000-89,500 range and faces significant resistance, it may be an opportunity to sell high or attempt a short.

In tonight's market, patience is more important than speed. I am Bull Brother, and we are steady and steadfast. #巨鲸动向

Today let's talk about a disruptive perspective: only by treating cryptocurrency trading as a formal job can you truly make money.

When I first entered the market, I was like most people: staying up late watching the charts, chasing trends, and losing sleep over margin calls. It wasn't until I shifted my mindset to treat trading as a 9-to-5 job and strictly followed my plan that my account began to grow steadily. Here are a few insights I gained through real experience:
First, fixed trading hours.
I mainly trade after 9 PM. During the day, the news is chaotic, and the market is like a headless chicken. In the evening, the news has settled, the candlestick patterns are cleaner, and the direction is clearer. This allows me to avoid 80% of ineffective fluctuations.
Second, lock in profits immediately.
Don't be greedy. If you make 1500U, withdraw 500U first, and play with the rest. I've seen too many cases where people aiming to triple their profits end up losing everything after a pullback. Remember, the account number is not money; only what you withdraw to your bank account is.
Third, rely on indicators, not feelings.
Before making a trade, I must check three indicators: the MACD golden and death crosses, the RSI's overbought and oversold signals, and the Bollinger Bands' squeeze and breakout. At least two of the three should give consistent signals before considering entry. Install TradingView on your phone and let the data speak.
Fourth, dynamic stop-loss protection.
When I have time to monitor the market, I move the stop-loss up by 3% for every 5% increase in price. If I can't watch the market, I must set a hard stop-loss at 5% to prevent sudden crashes.
Fifth, withdrawals need discipline.
Withdraw 40% of every profit. Don't let the account numbers numb you; real money is the only safety.
Sixth, candlestick patterns have rules.
For short-term trades, look at the 1-hour chart and only consider bullish opportunities after two consecutive bullish candles. In a choppy market, look at the 4-hour chart and only test near support levels with light positions.
Seventh, pitfalls to avoid:
Don't use 10x leverage; one wrong step in direction and you’re at zero.
Don’t play with cryptocurrencies you don’t understand; 99% are scams.
Only make a maximum of 2 trades a day; more than that leads to emotional trading.

Never borrow money to trade cryptocurrencies; this is the bottom line. Trading is not gambling; it requires a professional attitude and skill. Treat it as a job: log on in time, execute according to plan, and shut down at the end of the day. You will find that stable profits are more realistic than fantasizing about getting rich quick.

I am Niu Ge, trading is a marathon, and we proceed steadily. #加密市场观察

Breaking! US stocks pre-market crypto stocks collectively plunged, MicroStrategy leading the decline by nearly 1%, will Bitcoin crash tonight?

Just received data, US stocks pre-market crypto concept stocks collectively turned red, although the decline is not large, the trend is worth noting.

MicroStrategy down 0.85%
Coinbase down 0.24%
Marathon down 0.37%
Riot down 0.22%
Other stocks like Circle, BitMine, etc. also generally fell by 0.3%-0.5%.

Brother Niu highlights key points for everyone, observing connectivity: Crypto concept stocks have always been a thermometer for sentiment in the crypto circle. The collective weakness before the market reflects that US stock investors are cautiously optimistic about the crypto sector in the short term, which may indirectly affect the risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market tonight.

Interpretation of key targets, MicroStrategy as a major holder of Bitcoin, its trend is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices. Its leading decline often indicates that some funds are taking profits or hedging.
Coinbase, as the leading exchange, its volatility directly reflects market expectations for trading activity.

Insights for tonight, although the pre-market decline is small, we need to be wary of whether this cautious sentiment will be amplified after the US stock market opens. If US tech stocks are under pressure tonight, the cryptocurrency market may also face selling pressure simultaneously. However, the current decline is limited, and there is no need for excessive panic; it is more of the market's wait-and-see posture before key data. #加密市场观察

This Wednesday, the triple witching day + the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike will bring a dual storm, and Bitcoin may face a massive shock. How can retail investors escape?

As we enter the second half of this week, there are two major events that require special attention. Together, they may create significant turbulence.

The first event is this Friday's triple witching day.
This key point occurs only four times a year and means that a large number of stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options will expire simultaneously. Historical experience shows that this usually leads to a sharp increase in market trading volume, significantly enhanced volatility, and the price movement tends to become very tortuous. Market sentiment can also be easily exaggerated during the period around the triple witching day, and the uncertainty of short-term operations will greatly increase.

The second event is the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
The Bank of Japan will announce its latest monetary policy decision this Thursday. The recent market decline has partially reflected concerns about a potential interest rate hike in Japan. The core logic here is that Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates for a long time, making the yen the cheapest financing currency globally. A large amount of international capital borrows yen, exchanges it for dollars, and flows into U.S. stocks, technology stocks, and even high-yield risky assets like Bitcoin.

Once the Bank of Japan shifts to raising interest rates, leading to a stronger yen and increased borrowing costs, this portion of arbitrage trading funds may be forced to close positions, selling risky assets to repay yen loans, thus creating a chain of selling pressure. This explains why the Nikkei index and Bitcoin fell together at that time.

In the coming days, we will face both the technical impact of the triple witching day and the macro fundamental impact of the Bank of Japan's decision. With these two factors resonating, it is highly likely that the market will experience repeated fluctuations.

Niu Ge's strategy is very clear:
During periods of increased uncertainty, the primary task is to manage risk rather than chase profits. It is recommended that everyone strictly control their positions and avoid heavy bets during extreme volatility. Short-term trading must set stop-loss orders, with a focus on observing more and acting less. First, ensure that you can survive the turbulence before seeking development.
I am Niu Ge; when the market is complex, clarity is even more necessary. We prioritize stability. #美国非农数据超预期

The current strategy for dealing with concubines can be summed up in one sentence: in a volatile market, do not bet on direction, only focus on certainty.

From a technical perspective, the price fluctuates around 2950, neither breaking through the upper resistance nor falling below the lower support. In such times, the worst thing is to chase highs and sell lows. My thinking is simple: buy on the way down, confirm on the way up, exit if it breaks down, and add positions if it stabilizes.

Specific layout:
2900-2950 range: you can try to go long in batches but must strictly control the position, not exceeding 20% of the total capital per trade.
Around 2800: if the price revisits this level and stabilizes, it can be seen as a second opportunity to add positions, but still with a light position.
Stop-loss discipline: once the price effectively breaks below 2700, it indicates that the short-term structure has been damaged, and all positions must be exited with a stop-loss, without any illusions.

Conditions for adding positions:
Only when the price stabilizes above 3050 and is accompanied by increased trading volume should one consider adding positions. Until then, all operations are considered short-term tests, without getting too attached.

Target range:
The first target looks towards the 3200-3300 area. After reaching the target, do not be greedy; taking profits in batches is the way to go. Remember, in a volatile market, securing profits is more important than anything else.
Core discipline:
Do not go all in: always leave room to prevent extreme market conditions.
Do not chase highs: for rises above 3000, it is better to miss out than to take risks.
Strict execution: once a plan is made, it must be executed like a machine, without changing due to emotions.

The market is never short of opportunities, but what it lacks is the patience to survive. I do not teach you to bet on direction; I teach you how to survive in any market condition. This light is always on, and those who are willing to learn steadily and execute will eventually find their own path. #ETH走势分析

Breaking! The Kingdom of Bhutan invests 1 billion USD in Bitcoin to build a city, a new center for cryptocurrency in Asia emerges, the next Dubai?

According to Cointelegraph, the Bhutanese government has just announced that it will use 10,000 Bitcoins from the national treasury, worth nearly 1 billion USD, to create a mindfulness city! This is not a small-scale initiative, but a serious national strategic layout.

This special administrative region called GMC is located in the southern part of Bhutan in the town of Gelephu, covering an area of 1,544 square kilometers, equivalent to one-tenth of Bhutan's land area! It will start in 2024, aiming to create high-value-added jobs, retain young people, and build a new economic center.

What's even more impressive is that GMC will focus on attracting cryptocurrency and fintech companies, providing flexible regulatory policies, and vigorously developing the Bitcoin mining industry. This means that this city is very likely to become another cryptocurrency center in Asia in the future.

What shocked me the most is that the Bhutanese government currently holds 11,286 Bitcoins, ranking fifth in global government Bitcoin reserves! Moreover, most of them were mined by themselves, showing significant cost advantages. The decision to allocate nearly 90% of their reserves for construction indicates their strong confidence in the future value of Bitcoin.

National endorsement: The government's use of treasury Bitcoin for infrastructure is the highest level of recognition for crypto assets.
Regulatory innovation: Providing flexible regulation for crypto companies may become a new policy haven in Asia.
Strategic value: Bhutan is located at a crucial point in South Asia, and GMC may become a cryptocurrency hub connecting the East and the West.
This operation is worth continued attention. I’m Niu Ge, bringing you a trader's perspective on the world. #加密市场观察

Brother Niu's heavy discovery! The LIGHT coin has revealed a golden pit signal, with major funds frantically buying, is $1.6 just the starting point?

I just carefully looked at this LIGHT/USDT daily chart, and indeed there are several technical features worth paying attention to. Today, based on the chart itself, I will discuss three positive signals I see.

First, the trend structure is clear, and the moving average system has strong support.
The most intuitive feeling from the chart is that the trend is very clear. The price has started from a historically low area and is steadily rising. Currently, the short-term moving average MA7 is at 1.5856, and the long-term moving average MA30 is at 1.3911, forming a standard bullish arrangement, and MA7 has crossed above MA30, creating a golden cross bullish signal. The current price is around 1.645, firmly operating above the two moving averages, indicating that the medium-term upward trend structure remains intact, and the moving average system forms a dynamic support zone.

Second, breaking through key positions has opened up upward space.
From the left side of the chart, we can see that after breaking through important psychological levels like 1.00 and 1.20, the price did not linger too long, and more recently, it made a sharp rise directly challenging the high of 1.6937. This trend indicates that major funds are determined to buy, and the resistance above has been broken through layer by layer under the push of buying. Although there has been a pullback from the high point, it still maintains consolidation in the high area after the breakout, which looks more like a technical adjustment after a significant rise rather than a trend reversal.

Third, the combination of volume and price, with high-level support evident.
During the pullback phase after reaching the high of 1.6937, the price did not show panic selling with increased volume but stabilized in the range of 1.64-1.65. This indicates that even at relatively high market levels, there is still effective buying support, and profit-taking pressure has been well digested. This kind of strong consolidation at a high level, often described as 'exchanging time for space,' is usually meant to build momentum for a further advance.

From a pure technical chart analysis, LIGHT currently exhibits typical strong bullish trend characteristics: clear trend, effective breakout, healthy pullback.

Follow the right people and walk the right path to survive long in the cryptocurrency space; the market is like this, either watch others eat meat or decisively follow Brother Niu, I'll take you ashore.
#山寨币热点 #加密市场观察

Brothers, I just stumbled upon two key data points on the chains worth discussing with everyone.

The first point is that Matrixport transferred 1000 BTC to Binance, valued at approximately 86.9 million USD. This is the first large transfer of the day, indicating that institutional funds are making short-term adjustments. Generally speaking, large transfers to exchanges suggest there may be selling pressure in the short term or preparations for hedging operations. This signal needs attention, but it shouldn't be overinterpreted, as a single transfer cannot represent the overall trend.
The second point, a message at 12:49, is more concerning. Data shows that yesterday, Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 277.2 million USD, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 224.2 million USD. This has been a continuous outflow of funds for several days, indicating that institutional investors are gradually taking profits or adjusting their positions before the end of the year.

Here are the key points from Niu Ge:
Short-term pressure: The combination of large transfers and continuous outflow of ETF funds indicates that the current market lacks support and may continue to face pressure in the short term. Especially in the range of 87000-88000 for Bitcoin, which has been tested multiple times; if it cannot break through soon, we should be wary of a pullback risk.
Mid-term positioning: For long-term investors, a pullback can be an opportunity. It is normal for institutions to adjust positions at the end of the year; waiting for the outflow of funds to slow down and market sentiment to stabilize can allow for gradual accumulation in batches.
Operational strategy: Given the increased volatility in the current market, it is advisable to control positions and avoid heavy bets. We can pay attention to stability signals near key support levels or wait for a breakout after increased trading volume before following the trend.

The market is always changing, and what we need to do is adjust our strategies based on information. I am Niu Ge, rational analysis, steady progress. #巨鲸动向

It's lunchtime, I'm Niu Ge. Let's talk about Bitcoin and Auntie, and see what the current market is really saying.

Auntie, the current price is around 2946, almost coinciding with the 7-day moving average. The key is the 30-day moving average above, which is firmly pressing at 3060, like a clear wall. Until the price can effectively break through this wall, the overall situation remains bearish. It may fall back to around 2930-2905, with the target around 2980-3040. But remember, this is just a rebound in the downward process, not a trend reversal.

Bitcoin, the trend is even more sluggish. The price is hovering around 87300, simultaneously suppressed by the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, and the fluctuation space is compressed very narrow, the market is obviously waiting for a direction. It may fall back to around 87000-86500, with the target around 87900-89500.

In summary, the current market is overall in a low-volume consolidation phase with no clear trend. My thinking is to lightly test for long positions near key support levels, strictly set stop losses, and enter and exit quickly. In a volatile market, do not chase highs or panic sell, only operate within understandable ranges. Patiently waiting for the market to make its own choice is the best strategy.

I am Niu Ge, trading is the art of waiting, see you in the afternoon. #巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析

Brothers, the non-farm payroll data has been released, with an increase of 64,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000. The result is clear, negative news has landed, and Ethereum has responded accordingly. Let's take a look at this 5-minute candlestick chart, which is the most genuine market language.

The current price is $2,940.81. The chart clearly shows that before and after the data release, the price once surged to $2,982.10 but quickly turned down, forming a long upper shadow, which constitutes a typical false breakout that entices buying.

Pressure Confirmation: The 2980-2985 area has become a strong resistance zone for tonight. If the price rebounds to this level but cannot break through with volume, it is a position to reduce holdings or attempt shorting.
Support Observation: The current price is testing immediate support near 2940. If it breaks below, the next support is around 2916. The more important defense line is at the daily platform of 2880-2900.

Niu Ge's Current Strategy
The price has fallen below the short-term moving average, and the rebound has met clear resistance. The more we are in this situation, the more it is a golden opportunity to short.

Core Discipline
In the early stages of a downturn driven by macro-negative factors, market fluctuations will be very intense. Remember, do not guess the bottom, do not chase rebounds. Let the market establish a clear downward structure, and we will only follow the segments with the highest certainty.

I am Niu Ge, trading is not gambling; it is the art of dealing with probabilities. We will take steady steps and find the most beautiful pearls from the waves. #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Recently, many friends have asked how small funds can get started in the cryptocurrency world. Today, I won't talk about the abstract; I'll review a path I've personally verified: how to use discipline to achieve compound growth with limited chips.

The core message is simple: Use the certainty of small wins to leverage the miracle of compounding. Don't think about getting rich overnight; that's no different from gambling. The iron rule I set for myself was: always aim for a steady return of 3%-5% daily. It sounds small, but once compounding takes effect, the power is beyond imagination.

There are three tactics, all based on discipline:
First, only do "trend pullbacks," no guessing bottoms or escaping tops.
I never trade against the trend; I only look for opportunities when there's a clear upward trend and the price pulls back to key support. I only take the most stable part of the fish, giving up the fantasies of the head and tail. This ensures a high probability of successful trades.
Second, strict position management, always leaving room for maneuver.
Each time I trade, my position never exceeds half of the total capital. If I make a profit, I use the profits to add in batches; if I incur a loss, I decisively cut losses because the loss of principal is limited. This allows me to maintain a stable mindset at all times and not panic due to a single failure.
Third, a daily review mindset, rejecting greed.
Each day’s trading has a clear plan; once the target is reached, I stop, usually not exceeding two trades. This avoids being tempted by subsequent market movements and giving back profits. Every evening, I must review and summarize experiences and lessons learned.
Thus, starting from 1000U, like rolling a snowball: from 1000U to 1800U, then to 3200U, and finally to 7100U, each step is taken steadily, with small drawdowns controlled. This process tests not how advanced your skills are, but whether you can execute the established strategy like a machine.

The market always has opportunities, but it only offers opportunities to those who are prepared and disciplined. Don't always envy others feasting on profits; first, check if you have the discipline to withstand hits and the patience to wait. I am Brother Niu; investing is a marathon, we proceed steadily, step by step.
#加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向

Today, the Ethereum market is a bit overwhelming, making it a prelude to the battle between bulls and bears.

News: Three major events, dancing on the knife's edge.
Cash out by the founder: This afternoon, an address associated with the founder of Lido sold 14,585 ETH at an average price of $2,928, cashing out over $42.7 million. This action itself is a signal that requires caution.

At 9:30 PM tonight, the U.S. will announce the November non-farm payroll data. This is a significant event that affects the short-term sentiment of global risk assets, and the market is holding its breath in anticipation.

Currently, around $2,800, there is a liquidation pressure from long positions worth about $849 million. This means that if the price falls below this critical level, it may trigger a chain of forced liquidations, exacerbating the downward trend. Conversely, there is also a large pressure from short positions above $3,000.

The rebound is weak, and the weakness is evident. From the 1-hour chart, the day's rebound showed signs of fatigue near $2,950, failing to even touch the $3,000 mark. The price has now fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and major technical indicators show insufficient momentum, belonging to a typical weak consolidation, with trading volume shrinking as everyone waits for the evening data to indicate direction.

Tonight, Brother Niu's thought process, in the face of this intertwined situation of bullish and bearish news, is that the core principle is: watch more and act less, take advantage of the situation.

It is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach before and after the data release. If after the data is released, ETH can stabilize in the $2,950-$2,980 area with increased volume, then short-term sentiment may warm up, and light positions can be considered for long. Conversely, if it effectively falls below $2,900, downward space may open up, with the next target looking towards the $2,800 area.

Regardless of which direction you choose, you must set stop-losses in advance. Near important data and key price levels, the market's instantaneous fluctuations will be very intense, and strict discipline is your only armor for protection.

The market is always full of opportunities; what it lacks is the patience to wait for opportunities and the preparation to seize them. Tonight, let the bullets fly for a while. I am Brother Niu, seeking progress steadily. #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Let's talk about the 4-hour candlestick chart of PTB/USDT. I focus on several technical reasons for it.

The short-term moving average has significantly crossed above the long-term moving average, and both are showing a clear upward trend, which is a typical formation of a bullish arrangement, indicating that the medium-term trend structure has preliminarily improved.

The price of PTB has been consolidating at a low level in a narrow range between 0.003000 - 0.004000 for a long time. Currently, the price has firmly stood above 0.005, marking an effective breakthrough from the bottom consolidation range that lasted for several months. Generally speaking, such breakouts after a long period of sideways movement are worth monitoring for their potential follow-up space.

Although from the latest candlestick, the price has retreated from its peak, currently showing a daily decline of -11.03%. But please note a key piece of data: the intraday volatility reached as high as 15.95%. This means that today, the price experienced violent fluctuations, with a high of 0.006347. Such high volatility candlesticks with long upper shadows, appearing after previous increases, are likely a rapid profit-taking cleansing and accumulation behavior by the main force, rather than the end of a trend.

The cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and opportunities coexist with risks. I am Brother Niu, rational analysis, cautious trading. #山寨币热点 #加密市场观察

The news has arrived, and it's happening today. There is a major move in Japan, as the Senate has just approved a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, equivalent to about 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars. Among this, over 1 trillion yen is specifically allocated for strengthening defense capabilities.

Let me highlight for everyone: with this amount, Japan's total defense spending for next year will reach an astonishing 11 trillion yen. The most critical point is that, based on Japan's official GDP growth estimates, the proportion of defense spending to GDP will reach 2%.

What does this 2% signify? It's not just about meeting a numerical target; it's also a symbol. This marks that Japan's defense spending has officially reached the benchmark requirements set by NATO for its member countries. Although it is not a NATO member, this move undoubtedly sends a clear strategic signal to the outside world.

This means that in the East Asian region, the competition for strategic security is entering a new phase. More defense budget means more equipment procurement, technological research and development, and potential deployments. Geopolitical tensions often drive up demand for capital to seek safe-haven assets. Historical experience shows that such events, in the long run, will affect the flow of international capital, and the consensus on the value of "hard assets" like gold and Bitcoin may be further reinforced amidst fluctuations.
For us ordinary investors, paying attention to macro trends is not just about watching the excitement. Such geopolitical events are key pieces in understanding the narrative logic and risk preferences of future markets. I will continue to monitor the subsequent developments.

Remember, the wind rises at the end of the green rushes; opportunities and risks are hidden in changes.

I am Niu Ge, bringing you a trader's perspective on the world. #加密市场观察

Brothers, I am Brother Niu. A key trend worth noting: The price of ZEC has dropped over 5% today, falling below $380.

Data shows that the largest ZEC short position on Hyperliquid has turned profitable, with an average price of $389 and an unrealized profit of about 8%, and a position value of $16.5 million. Meanwhile, two long whales with liquidation prices around $350 have exited, with one incurring a loss of about $1 million.

Firstly, this is a barometer. The largest shorts are starting to profit, while important longs are 'cutting losses', indicating that short forces have gained the upper hand at this stage. Changes in whale positions are an important signal of market sentiment.

Secondly, this short has remarkable strength. He is also the largest short for ETH and MON, with total positions close to $120 million, suggesting his judgment might be holistic. His main profits come from ETH short positions, which provide him with ample confidence.

The lesson for ordinary investors is clear: the market does not recognize beliefs, only facts. When key support is breached and market structures change, it is essential to reassess logic; adhering to discipline is more important than stubbornly holding on.

The current situation favors the bears. Before clear bottom signals appear, one should go with the trend and avoid blindly trying to catch the bottom. Attention should be paid to the price rebounding to the $390-$395 range, and if signs of weakness in the rise appear, it can be considered a reference for assessing pressure and seeking opportunities. Always remember, protecting the principal is the priority.

The market is always changing; flexible responses are the way to survive. Follow Brother Niu, supported by a top-notch team, only serving ambitious madmen! #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察

Brother Niu urgently calls for orders! The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a double bullish locking bottom signal. Can the life-and-death line of 85000 ignite a thousand-dollar rebound?

Brothers, I am Brother Niu. Let's take a look at the chart. This 4-hour chart has presented a lot of information in front of us.

Currently, the price is indeed testing back and forth near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, and the overall structure is still in an adjustment phase, with the moving average system above creating certain pressure. However, a positive detail has emerged here. From observing the charts of smaller time frames, a preliminary signal of consecutive bullish rebounds has appeared, which is a stabilizing sign that needs attention.

Regarding the subsequent thinking, my view is that rather than blindly guessing the bottom, it is better to wait for a more reliable signal. We can regard the area between 85500 and 85000 dollars as a key support zone and patiently observe the price performance here. If the price can stabilize near this zone and is accompanied by an effective rebound structure, then we can pay attention to the possibility of the price moving upward to test the resistance near the 90000 dollar mark.

In terms of operation, the core is patience and discipline. If you plan to look for opportunities near the support zone, you must also strictly control your position and set your stop-loss below the previous wave's low. Please

Remember, do not chase high prices, do not over-invest, and wait for the market to form a structure on its own before we follow the trend. The market is always changing, and the key is to find your own certainty amid the changes. I am Brother Niu, and we will steadily move forward. See you next time. #巨鲸动向 #BTC走势分析