Bitcoin Market Future Trend Forecast

As of 2025-12-18 17:35 BTC is currently approximately 87,225 USD, with a 24-hour

decline of about 2%. Market sentiment is extremely fearful (fear index 18). The following

are phased trend forecasts and key scenarios, with operational references:

Short-term (1-2 weeks, before the end of the year)

• Core judgment: Weak oscillation, first defend then observe, key support at 85,000 USD, resistance at 88,000-91,000 USD

• Three scenarios and probabilities:

1. Range oscillation (40%): 85,000-90,000 USD flat, waiting for clearer Federal Reserve policies and capital flow

2. Weak rebound (35%): If 85,000 USD holds + ETF funds return, it may touch 88,000-91,000 USD, difficult to break strong resistance at 94,000

3. Second bottoming (25%): Losing 85,000 USD, down to 80,000-82,000 USD, extreme to 78,000 USD

• Operations: Light positions + strict stop-loss, reduce positions/observe if 85,000 USD breaks; staggered profit-taking if encountering resistance at 88,000 USD

Medium-term (Q1 2026)

• Key turning point, core variables: Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace, ETF fund flow, miners' cost line (approximately 90,000 USD)

• Trend anchor points:

◦ Optimistic: Stabilizing above 95,000 USD + weekly ETF inflow ≥ 100 million USD, confirming a W bottom, target 10.7-110,000 USD

◦ Neutral: Oscillation between 85,000-95,000 USD, adjustment period extended, waiting for new catalysts in Q2

◦ Pessimistic: Breaking below 80,000 USD and continued capital outflow, probing down to 74,500 USD (April 2025 low)

Long-term (Mid-2026 to 2030)

• Institutional consensus: Long-term bullish logic remains unchanged (scarcity + institutional allocation)

• Target reference: JPMorgan sees 170,000 USD by mid-2026; Standard Chartered sees 500,000 USD by 2030 (short-term target has been downgraded)

• Risks: Regulatory tightening, macro recession, and liquidity tightening may phase out valuations

Core Influencing Factors

1. Federal Reserve policy: Whether the December interest rate cut of 25BP lands or not directly affects risk appetite and capital flow

2. ETF funds: Inflows from BlackRock and others are the strongest short-term catalysts, while outflows would intensify corrections

3. Technical aspects: Daily MACD death cross, 4-hour RSI weakness, insufficient rebound momentum, need significant breakout to turn strong

4. Market sentiment: Fear index 18, pressure from leveraged long positions still exists, difficult to reverse quickly in the short term $BTC #美国讨论BTC战略储备